Climatic Change

, Volume 84, Issue 2, pp 217–239 | Cite as

Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil: societal trends and forecast value

  • Kenneth BroadEmail author
  • Alexander Pfaff
  • Renzo Taddei
  • A. Sankarasubramanian
  • Upmanu Lall
  • Franciso de Assis de Souza Filho


We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers, agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley, participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza, and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts.


Water Demand Risk Perception Water Allocation Climate Forecast Reservoir Release 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kenneth Broad
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    Email author
  • Alexander Pfaff
    • 4
  • Renzo Taddei
    • 3
    • 5
    • 6
  • A. Sankarasubramanian
    • 7
  • Upmanu Lall
    • 6
    • 8
  • Franciso de Assis de Souza Filho
    • 6
  1. 1.Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiamiUSA
  2. 2.Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and PolicyUniversity of MiamiCoral GablesUSA
  3. 3.Center for Research on Environmental DecisionsColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA
  4. 4.Earth InstituteColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA
  5. 5.Comitas Institute for Anthropological StudyNew YorkUSA
  6. 6.International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA
  7. 7.Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental EngineeringNorth Carolina State UniversityRaleighUSA
  8. 8.Department of Earth & Environmental EngineeringColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA

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