Climatic Change

, Volume 81, Issue 3–4, pp 265–281 | Cite as

Imprecise probabilities of climate change: aggregation of fuzzy scenarios and model uncertainties

  • Jim HallEmail author
  • Guangtao Fu
  • Jonathan Lawry


Whilst the majority of the climate research community is now set upon the objective of generating probabilistic predictions of climate change, disconcerting reservations persist. Attempts to construct probability distributions over socio-economic scenarios are doggedly resisted. Variation between published probability distributions of climate sensitivity attests to incomplete knowledge of the prior distributions of critical parameters and structural uncertainties in climate models. In this paper we address these concerns by adopting an imprecise probability approach. We think of socio-economic scenarios as fuzzy linguistic constructs. Any precise emissions trajectory (which is required for climate modelling) can be thought of as having a degree of membership in a fuzzy scenario. Next, it is demonstrated how fuzzy scenarios can be propagated through a low-dimensional climate model, MAGICC. Fuzzy scenario uncertainties and imprecise probabilistic representation of climate model uncertainties are combined using random set theory to generate lower and upper cumulative probability distributions for Global Mean Temperature anomaly. Finally we illustrate how non-additive measures provide a flexible framework for aggregation of scenarios, which can represent some of the semantics of socio-economic scenarios that defy conventional probabilistic representation.


Emission Scenario Climate Sensitivity Cumulative Probability Distribution Imprecise Probability Global Mean Temperature 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesNewcastle UniversityNewcastle upon TyneUK
  2. 2.School of Engineering, Computer Science & MathematicsUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
  3. 3.Department of Engineering MathematicsUniversity of BristolBristolUK

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