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Climatic Change

, Volume 81, Issue 3–4, pp 247–264 | Cite as

Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations

  • Jonathan Rougier
Original Article

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2^C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region.

Keywords

Prior Distribution Future Climate Climate Data Climate Scientist Monte Carlo Integration 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Mathematical SciencesUniversity of Durham, Science SiteDurhamUK

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