Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: An Evolution of Conceptual Thinking

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adger, W. N.: 1999, ‘Social vulnerabililty to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam’, World Dev. 27, 249–269.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adger, W. N. and Kelly, M.: 1999, ‘Social vulnerabililty to climate change and the architecture of entitlements’, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change 4, 253–266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed, M. T. and Reid, W.: 2002, ‘Millennium ecosystem assessment. A healthy drive for an ailing planet’, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 9, 219–220.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alcamo, J., Kreileman, E., Krol, M., Leemans, R., Bollen, J., van Minnen, J., Schaeffer, M., Toet, S., and de Vries, B.: 1998, ‘Global modelling of environmental change: An overview of IMAGE 2.1’, in Alcamo, J., Leemans, R., and Kreileman, E. (eds.), Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century. Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model. Pergamon, Oxford, pp. 3–94.

  • Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B.: 1994, At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. Routledge, London.

  • Bohle, H.-G., Downing, T. E., and Watts, M. J.: 1994, ‘Climate change and social vulnerability: Toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity’, Global Environ. Change 4, 37– 48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brooke, C.: 2002, Climate Change, Vulnerability and Conservation in Costa Rica: An Investigation of Impacts, Adaptive Environmental Management and National Adaptation Networks, Ph.D. thesis, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

  • Brooks, N.: 2003, Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation: A Conceptual Framework, Working Paper 38, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK.

  • Burton, I.: 1997, ‘Vulnerability and adaptive responses in the context of climate and climate change’, Clim. Change 36, 185–196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burton, I., Huq, S., Lim, B., Pilifosova, O., and Schipper, E. L.: 2002, ‘From impact assessment to adaptation priorities: The shaping of adaptation policy’, Climate Policy 2, 145– 149.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen, S. J., Miller, K. A., Hamlet, A. F., and Avis, W.: 2000, ‘Climate change and resource management in the Columbia river basin’, Water Int. 25, 253–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch, U., Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C. A., Raper, S., and Yap, K. S.: 2001, ‘Projections of future climate change’, in Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis (Chapter 9), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  • Cutter, S. L.: 1996, ‘Vulnerability to environmental hazards’, Prog. Hum. Geogr. 20, 529– 539.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dilley, M. and Boudreau, T. E.: 2001, ‘Coming to terms with vulnerability: A critique of the food security definition’, Food Policy 26, 229–247.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dow, K.: 1992, ‘Exploring differences in our common future(s): The meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change’, Geoforum 23, 417–436.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dowlatabadi, H.: 1995, ‘Integrated assessment models of climate change: An incomplete overview’, Energy Policy 23, 289–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Downing, T. E., Butterfield, R., Cohen, S., Huq, S., Moss, R., Rahman, A., Sokona, Y., and Stephen, L.: 2001, Climate Change Vulnerability: Linking Impacts and Adaptation. Report to the Governing Council of the United Nations Programme. United Nations Environmental Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.

  • Downing, T. E., Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. E., and Lonsdale, K. G.: 2000, Climate Change, Climatic Variability and Agriculture in Europe. An Integrated Assessment, Research Report No. 21 (Contract ENV4-CT95-0154), Commission of the European Union, Brussels, Belgium.

  • Downing, T. E. and Patwardhan, A.: 2003, Vulnerability Assessment for Climate Adaptation, APF Technical Paper 3, United Nations Development Programme, New York City, NY. Final draft.

  • Ford, J.: 2002, Vulnerability: Concepts and Issues, Ph.D. Scholarly Field Paper, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada.

  • Füssel, H.-M.: 2003, ‘The ICLIPS Impacts Tool: A graphical user interface to climate impact response functions for integrated assessments of climate change’, Integr. Assess. 4, 116–125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Füssel, H.-M.: 2004, ‘Coevolution of the political and conceptual frameworks for climate change vulnerability assessments’, in Biermann, F., Campe, S., and Jacob K. (eds.), Proceedings of the 2002 Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change “Knowledge for the Sustainability Transition. The Challenge for Social Science”. Global Governance Project, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 302–320.

  • new Füssel, H.-M.: 2005, ‘Vulnerability to climate change: A comprehensive conceptual framework’, University of California International and Area Studies Breslauer Symposium Paper 6, Berkeley, CA, USA, 36 pp. Available at http://repositories.cdlib.org/ucias/breslauer/6/.

  • Füssel, H.-M. and Klein, R. J. T.: 2002, ‘Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments to Climate Change: An Evolution of Conceptual Thinking’, in UNDP Expert Group Meeting “Integrating Disaster Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change”, Havana, Cuba.

  • Füssel, H.-M. and Klein, R. J. T.: 2004, ‘Conceptual Frameworks of Adaptation to Climate Change and Their Applicability to Human Health’, PIK Report No. 91, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

  • Füssel, H.-M., Klein, R. J. T., and Ebi, K. L.: 2006, ‘Adaptation assessment for public health’, in Menne, B. and Ebi, K. L. (eds.), Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Human Health, Steinkopff Verlag, Darmstadt, pp. 41–62.

  • Füssel, H.-M. and van Minnen, J. G.: 2001, ‘Climate impact response functions for terrestrial ecosystems’, Integr. Assess. 2, 183–197.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gewin, V.: 2002, ‘The state of the planet’, Nature 417, 112–113.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., and Xiaosu, D. (eds.): 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  • IPCC: 2001, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  • Kasperson, J. X. and Kasperson, R. E.: 2001, ‘International Workshop on Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change’, SEI Risk and Vulnerability Programme Report 2001–01, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.

  • Kelly, P. M. and Adger, W. N.: 2000, ‘Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation’, Clim. Change 47, 325–352.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kenny, G. J., Warrick, R., Mitchell, N., Mullan, A., and Salinger, M.: 1995, ‘CLIMPACTS: An integrated model for assessment of the effects of climate change on the New Zealand environment’, J. Biogeogr. 22, 883–895.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klein, R. J. T.: 2002, ‘Adaptation to climate variability and change: What is optimal and appropriate?’, in Giupponi, C. and Shechter, M. (eds.), Climate Change and the Mediterranean: Socio – Economics of Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.

  • Klein, R. J. T. and MacIver, D. C.: 1999, ‘Adaptation to climate change and variability: Methodological issues’, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change 4, 189–198.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein, R. J. T., Nicholls, R. J., and Mimura, N.: 1999, ‘Coastal adaptation to climate change: Can the IPCC guidelines be applied?’, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change 4, 239–252.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kwadijk, J. and Middelkoop, H.: 1994, ‘Estimation of the impact of climate change on the peak discharge probability of the river Rhine’, Clim. Change 27, 199–224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leemans, R. and van den Born, G.: 1994, ‘Determining the potential global distribution of natural vegetation, crops and agricultural productivity’, Water Air Soil Pollut. 76, 133–162.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lim, B. (ed.): 2001, ‘UNDP–GEF Workshop for Developing an Adaptation Policy Framework for Climate Change. Preliminary Report’, St. Adele, Canada.

  • Liverman, D. M.: 1990, ‘Vulnerability to global environmental change’, in Kasperson, R. E., Dow, K., Golding, D., and Kasperson, J. X. (eds.), Understanding Global Environmental Change: The Contributions of Risk Analysis and Management (Chapter 26), Clark University, Worcester, MA, pp. 27–44.

  • Martens, P.: 1998, Health & Climate Change. Modelling the Impacts of Global Warming and Ozone Depletion, Earthscan, London.

  • Martens, W. J. M., Jetten, T. H., and Focks, D. A.: 1997, ‘Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming’, Clim. Change 35, 145–156.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martens, W. J. M., Niessen, L. W., Rotmans, J., Jetten, T. H., and McMichael, A. J.: 1995, ‘Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk’, Environ. Health Perspect. 103, 458– 464.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., and White, K. S. (eds.): 2001, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  • Menne, B. and Ebi, K. L. (eds.): 2005, European Climate Change Health Impact and Adaptation Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (in press).

  • Monserud, R. A., Tchebakova, N. M., and Leemans, R.: 1993, ‘Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model’, Clim. Change 25, 59–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, M. G. and Henrion, M.: 1990, Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss, R. H., Brenkert, A. L., and Malone, E. L.: 2001, ‘Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Quantitative Approach’, Technical Report PNNL-SA-33642, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, Richland, WA.

  • Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (eds.): 2000, Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Assessment Synthesis Team: 2001, Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls, R. J. and Leatherman, S. P.: 1995, ‘Potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on developing countries’, J. Coastal Res. Special Issue No. 14.

  • O’Brien, K., Eriksen, S., Schjolen, A., and Nygaard, L.: 2004a, ‘What’s in a Word? Conflicting Interpretations of Vulnerability in Climate Change Research’, CICERO Working Paper 2004:04, CICERO, Oslo University, Oslo, Norway.

  • O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U., Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, H., Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaard, L., and West, J.: 2004b, ‘Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: Climate change and globalization in India’, Global Environ. Change 14, 303–313.

  • O’Brien, K., Sygna, L., and Haugen, J. E.: 2004c, ‘Vulnerable or resilient? A multi-scale assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability in Norway’, Clim. Change 64, 193–225.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Brien, K. L. and Leichenko, R. M.: 2000, ‘Double exposure: Assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization’, Global Environ. Change 10, 221–232.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olmos, S.: 2001, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Concepts, Issues, Assessment Methods. Climate Change Knowledge Network, http://www.cckn.net.

  • Prowse, M.: 2003, ‘Towards a Clearer Understanding of ‘Vulnerability’ in Relation to Chronic Poverty’, CPRC Working Paper No. 24, Chronic Poverty Research Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.

  • Ribot, J. C.: 1995, ‘The causal structure of vulnerability: Its application to climate impact analysis’, GeoJournal 35, 119–122.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M. L.: 1994, ‘Potential impact of climate change on world food supply’, Nature 367, 133–138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rothman, D. S. and Robinson, J. B.: 1997, ‘Growing pains: A conceptual framework for considering integrated assessments’, Environ. Monit. Assess. 46, 23–43.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheraga, J. D. and Furlow, J.: 2001, ‘From assessment to policy: Lessons learned from the U.S. national assessment’, Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess. 7, 1227–1246.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S. H.: 1997, ‘Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value-laden assumptions’, Environ. Model. Assess. 2, 229–249.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R. J. T., and Street, R.: 1999, ‘The science of adaptation: A framework for assessment’, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change 4, 199–213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R. J. T., and Wandel, J.: 2000, ‘An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability’, Clim. Change 45, 223–251.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smit, B. and Pilifosova, O.: 2001, ‘Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity’, in McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., and White, K. S. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Chapter 18), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  • Smithers, J. and Smit, B.: 1997, ‘Human adaptation to climatic variability and change’, Global Environ. Change 7, 129–146.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timmermann, P.: 1981, Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society, No. 1 in Environmental Monograph, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, Toronto.

    Google Scholar 

  • Toth, F. L., Bruckner, T., Füssel, H.-M., Leimbach, M., Petschel-Held, G., and Schellnhuber, H.-J.: 2002, ‘Exploring options for global climate policy: A new analytical framework’, Environment 44(5), 22–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner, B. L., II, Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., and Schiller, A.: 2003, ‘A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science’, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 100, 8074–8079.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNDHA: 1993, ‘Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management’, DNA/93/36, United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva, Switzerland.

  • UNDP: 2003, User’s Guidebook for the Adaptation Policy Framework. Final Draft. United Nations Development Programme, New York City, NY.

  • UNEP: 2002, Assessing Human Vulnerability due to Environmental Change: Concepts, Issues, Methods and Case Studies. UNEP/DEWA/RS.03-5, United Nations Environmental Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.

  • United Nations General Assembly: 1992, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. United Nations, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G.: 2001, ‘Mitigative capacity – the mirror image of adaptive capacity on the emissions side’, Clim. Change 49, 247–262.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G. and Tol, R. S. J.: 2002, ‘Indicators for social and economic coping capacity – moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity’, Global Environ. Change 12, 25–40.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hans-Martin Füssel.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Füssel, HM., Klein, R.J.T. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: An Evolution of Conceptual Thinking. Climatic Change 75, 301–329 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3

Keywords

Navigation