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Climatic Change

, Volume 71, Issue 1–2, pp 43–73 | Cite as

A Regional, Multi-sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of Climate And Socio-economic Change In The Uk

Part II. Results
  • I. P. HolmanEmail author
  • R. J. Nicholls
  • P. M. Berry
  • P. A. Harrison
  • E. Audsley
  • S. Shackley
  • M. D. A. Rounsevell
Article

Abstract

The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios) were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation, could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and refinement, regional IA’s will increasingly provide such output.

Keywords

Climate Change Change Scenario Climate Change Impact Climate Change Scenario Adaptation Option 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • I. P. Holman
    • 1
    Email author
  • R. J. Nicholls
    • 2
  • P. M. Berry
    • 3
  • P. A. Harrison
    • 3
  • E. Audsley
    • 4
  • S. Shackley
    • 5
  • M. D. A. Rounsevell
    • 6
  1. 1.Institute of Water & EnvironmentCranfield UniversitySilsoeUK
  2. 2.School of Civil Engineering and the EnvironmentUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
  3. 3.Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
  4. 4.Silsoe Research InstituteSilsoeUK
  5. 5.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of ManchesterManchesterUK
  6. 6.Université catholique de LouvainLouvain-la-NeuveBelgium

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