Modeling Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change: A Case Study of India and Indian States
- 5.1k Downloads
The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Prototype (VRIP). The model was adapted from the global/country version to account for Indian dietary practices and data availability with regard to freshwater resources. Results (scaled to world values) show nine Indian states to be moderately resilient to climate change, principally because of low sulfur emissions and a relatively large percentage of unmanaged land. Six states are more vulnerable than India as a whole, attributable largely to sensitivity to sea storm surges. Analyses of results at the state level (Orissa, and comparisons between Maharashtra and Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh) demonstrate the value of VRIP analyses used in conjunction with other socio-economic information to address initial questions about the sources of vulnerability in particular places. The modeling framework allows analysts and stakeholders to systematically evaluate individual and sets of indicators and to indicate where the likely vulnerabilities are in the area being assessed.
KeywordsSulfur India Climate Change Large Percentage State Level
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Aandahl, G. and Karen, O'Brien: 2001, ‘Vulnerability to climate changes and economic changes in Indian agriculture’, Paper presented at Waters of Hope. The Role of Water in South Asian Development, Biannual Conference of the Nordic Association for South Asian Studies, 20–22 September 2001.Google Scholar
- Acosta Moreno, A., Skea, J., Gacuhi, A., Greene, D. L., Moomaw, W., Okita, T., Riedacker, A., and Tran Viet, L.: 1995, ‘Industry, energy, and transportation: Impacts and adaptation’, Climate Change, op.cit.Google Scholar
- Adger, W. N., Khan, S. R., and Brooks, N.: 2003, Measuring and enhancing adaptive capacity, Technical Paper 7, UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework, http://www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm.
- Agarwal, A. and Narain, S.: 1991, Global Warming in an Unequal World, Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi.Google Scholar
- Agarwal, A. and Narain, S.: 1992, Towards a Green World: Should Global Environmental Management be Built on Legal Conventions or Human Rights? Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi.Google Scholar
- Ahmad, Q. K., Warrick, R. A., Downing, T. E., Nishioka, S., Parikh, K. S., Parmesan, C., Schneider, S. H., Toth, F., and Yohe, G.: ‘Methods and tools’, in McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., and White, K. S. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
- Allen-Diaz, B., Chapin, F. S., Diaz, S., Howden, M., Puigdefábregas, J., and Smith, M. S.: 1995, ‘Rangelands in a changing climate: Impacts, adaptations, and mitigation’, Climate Change, op. cit.; Everett, J. T., Krovnin, A., Lluch-Belda, D., Okemwa, E., Regier, H. A., and Troadec, J.-P.: 1995, ‘Fisheries’, Climate Change, op. cit.Google Scholar
- Brenkert, A. L. and Malone, E. L.: Vulnerability and Resilience of India and Indian States to Climate Change: A First-Order Approximation, Washington, DC, Joint Global Change Research Institute, http://www.pnl.gov/globalchange/projects/vul/index.htm.
- Cannon, T.: 1994, ‘Vulnerability analysis and the explanation of natural disasters’, in Varley, A. (ed.), Disasters, Development and Environment, Wiley, Chichester, pp. 13–30.Google Scholar
- Chambers, R.: 1989, ‘Editorial introduction: Vulnerability, coping and policy’, IDS Bulletin 21, 1–7.Google Scholar
- Chandler, W., Schaeffer, R., Dadi, Z., Shukla, P. R., Tudela, F., Davidson, O., and Alpan-Atamer, S.: 2002, Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries: Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
- CIA World Factbook: July 2001, http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html.
- Cutter, S. L.: 1996, ‘Vulnerability to environmental hazards’, Prog. Hum. Geogr. 20, 529–539.Google Scholar
- Deininger, K. and Squire, L.: 1996, ‘A new data set measuring income inequality’, World Bank Econ. Rev. 10(3) 565–591.Google Scholar
- Delft Hydraulics, The Netherlands: 1993, Sea Level Rise: A Global Vulnerability Assessment. Tidal Water Division, Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, the Netherlands, Table B-3.Google Scholar
- Downing, T. E. and Patwardhan, A.: 2003, ‘Vulnerability assessment for climate change adaptation’, Technical Paper 3, Adaptation Policy Framework, United Nations Development Program. http://www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm.
- Edmonds, J., Wise, M., Pitcher, H., Richels, R., Wigley, T., and MacCracken, C.: 1997, ‘An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies: an application of MiniCAM 1.0’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 1, 311–339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization]: 1999, FAOSTAT98 [CD-ROM], Sales and Marketing Group, FAO, Rome.Google Scholar
- Freedom House: 2003, Freedom in the World: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties 2003, Freedom House, http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2000/index.htm.
- Füssel, H.-M. and Klein, R. J. T.: in press, ‘Climate change vulnerability assessments: An evolution of conceptual thinking’, Clim. Change.Google Scholar
- Gannon, M. J., and Associates: 1994, Understanding Global Cultures, Sage, Thousand Oaks, California.Google Scholar
- Kasperson, J. X., Kasperson, R. E. and Turner II, B. L. (eds.): 1995, Regions at risk: International Comparisons of Threatened Environments, UNU Press, Tokyo.Google Scholar
- Lal, M.: 2001, ‘Global climate change-India's monsoon and its variability: Vulnerability and adaptation issues’, Report on Country Studies Vulnerability and Adaptation, Work Assignment 402 –Task 11 under Stratus Consulting Contract 68-W6-0055, Washington, DC, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.Google Scholar
- Lal, M., Cubasch, U., Voss, R., and Waszkewitz, J.: 1995, ‘Effect of transient increases in greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols on monsoon climate’, Curr. Sci. 69(9), 752–763.Google Scholar
- Moss, R. H., Brenkert, A. L., and Malone, E. L.: 2001, Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Quantitative Approach, PNNL-SA-33642, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington, DC, http://www.pnl.gov/globalchange/projects/vul/index.htm.
- Nakicenovic, N., et al.: 2000, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Parikh, J. K. and Parikh, K.: 2002, Climate Change: India's Perceptions, Positions, Policies and Possibilities, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris.Google Scholar
- Prescott-Allen, R.: 2001, The Wellbeing of Nations: A Country-by-Country Index of Quality of Life and the Environment, Washington, DC, Island Press.Google Scholar
- Reilly, J., et al.: 1995, ‘Agriculture in a changing climate: Impacts and Adaptation’, Climate Change, op. cit.Google Scholar
- Ribot, J. C.: 1996, ‘Introduction’, in Ribot, J. C., Magalhães, A. R., and Panagides, S. S. (eds.), Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
- Ribot, J. C., Magalhães, A. R., and Panagides, S. S. (eds): 1996, Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
- Robinson, J. and Herbert, D.: 2000, ‘Integrating climate change and sustainable development’, in Munasinghe, M. and Swart, R. (eds.), Climate Change and Its Linkages with Development, Equity, and Sustainability, LIFE, Columbo, Sri Lanka; RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands; and World Bank, Washington, DC, pp. 143–162.Google Scholar
- Scott, M. J., Aguilar, A. G., Douglas, I., Epstein, P. R., Liverman, D., Mailu, G. M., and Shove, E.: 1995, ‘Human Settlements in a change climate: Impacts and adaptation’, Climate Change, op. cit.Google Scholar
- Smith, J. B., Schellnhuber, H. J. and Monirul Qader Mirza, M.: 2001, ‘Vulnerability to climate change and reasons for concern: A synthesis’, in McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., and White, K. S. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
- Stern, P. C. and Easterling, W. E. (eds.): 1999, Making Climate Forecasts Matter: Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
- Tata Energy Research Institute, http://www.ccasia.teri.res.in/country/india/impacts/impacts.htm.
- Vogel, C.: 1997. ‘Vulnerability and global environmental change’, LUCC Newsletter 3, http://www. lucc.vogel.vuln.review.article.html.
- “Water in India: nor any drop to drink.” August 24, 2002. The Economist 364(8287), 31–32.Google Scholar
- Watson, R., Zinyowera, M. C., Moss, R. H., and Dokken, D. J.: 1998, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change, an Assessment of Vulnerability. A special report of IPCC working group II, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
- Watts, M. J. and Bohle, H. G.: 1993, ‘The space of vulnerability: The causal structure of hunger and famine’, Prog. Hum. Geogr. 17, 43–67.Google Scholar
- World Bank: 1998, World Development Indicators 1998 [CD-ROM], International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
- World Bank: 2002, Country Brief: South Asia Region (SAR)–India, http://www.Worldbank.org.
- World Resources 1994–1995: 1996, A guide to the global environment. A report by The World Resources Institute in collaboration with The United Nations Environment Programme and The United Nations Development Programme, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- [YCELP and CIESIN]: 2002, Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy and Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Environmental Sustainability Index: An Initiative of the Global Leaders of Tomorrow Environment Task Force, World Economic Forum, New Haven, CT, Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy.Google Scholar