Cybernetics and Systems Analysis

, Volume 53, Issue 2, pp 176–185

Dynamic Merge of the Global and Local Models for Sustainable Land Use Planning with Regard for Global Projections from GLOBIOM and Local Technical–Economic Feasibility and Resource Constraints*

  • T. Y. Ermolieva
  • Y. M. Ermoliev
  • P. Havlík
  • A. Mosnier
  • D. Leclere
  • S. Fritz
  • H. Valin
  • M. Obersteiner
  • S. V. Kyryzyuk
  • O. M. Borodina
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
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Abstract

In order to conduct research at required spatial resolution, we propose a model fusion involving interlinked calculations of regional projections by the global dynamic model GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and robust dynamic downscaling model, based on cross-entropy principle, for deriving spatially resolved projections. The proposed procedure allows incorporating data from satellite images, statistics, expert opinions, as well as data from global land use models. In numerous case studies in China and Ukraine, the approach allowed to estimate local land use and land use change projections corresponding to real trends and expectations. The disaggregated data and projections were used in national models for planning sustainable land use and agricultural development.

Keywords

global land use model robust downscaling model dynamic model fusion uncertainties local land use projections 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • T. Y. Ermolieva
    • 1
  • Y. M. Ermoliev
    • 1
  • P. Havlík
    • 1
  • A. Mosnier
    • 1
  • D. Leclere
    • 1
  • S. Fritz
    • 1
  • H. Valin
    • 1
  • M. Obersteiner
    • 1
  • S. V. Kyryzyuk
    • 2
  • O. M. Borodina
    • 2
  1. 1.International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
  2. 2.Institute for Economics and ForecastingNational Academy of Sciences of UkraineKyivUkraine

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