Biodiversity and Conservation

, Volume 28, Issue 14, pp 3873–3890 | Cite as

Atlantic corals under climate change: modelling distribution shifts to predict richness, phylogenetic structure and trait-diversity changes

  • Laura RodriguezEmail author
  • Brezo Martínez
  • Fernando Tuya
Original Paper
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Coastal and marine biodiversity


Climate change is altering species distributions worldwide. Particularly, global warming is driving range contractions and expansions of tropical species, such as corals. The use of climatic projections, via species distribution models to predict species distributional shifts, can identify threaten species and help to set priority areas of conservation. In this study, we assessed if distributional shifts of 45 Atlantic reef-forming corals (scleractinian), and the main environmental variables driving their distributions, correlated with their phylogeny and/or their functional traits; i.e. whether expected contractions and expansions affected specific clades, or specific coral traits. We also estimated the potential loss and/or gain of species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic species variability (PSV), as well as the phylogenetic structure of Atlantic reef communities (‘clustering’, ‘overdispersion’ or ‘randomness’), under a future climate scenario (A2-IPCC-2100). The potential loss of Atlantic corals in the future will be randomly distributed across their phylogeny, i.e. potential extinctions will not only affect one section of the phylogeny, therefore alleviating an inordinate loss of evolutionary history. Nearly all current and future communities presented a ‘random’ phylogenetic structure. No correlation was found between distributional shifts and coral traits. Environmental variables did not show a significant correlation with the phylogeny neither with coral traits. Predicted changes in species richness, PD and PSV vary across the Atlantic; certain areas display large evolutionary diversity losses. Species belonging to isolated clades (high evolutionary distinctiveness) contribute to quantitative increases, or decreases, of PD and PSV, becoming crucial species for conservation. These findings highlight the importance of combining SDMs with phylogenetic/functional metrics to develop conservation strategies to assess the future of corals.


Climate change Environmental factors Scleractinia SDMs Phylogenetic diversity Projections 



Laura Rodríguez was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sports with a fellowship FPU (Formación del Profesorado Universitario) AP2012‐3702.

Supplementary material

10531_2019_1855_MOESM1_ESM.docx (5.1 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 5220 kb)


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© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química InorgánicaUniversidad Rey Juan CarlosMóstolesSpain
  2. 2.IU-ECOAQUA, Grupo en Biodiversidad y ConservaciónUniversidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Campus TafiraCanary IslandsSpain

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