Abstract
Conservation area networks (CAN) must overlap spatial patterns of conservation priorities in order to ensure their persistence. Threatened species are among the least controversial biodiversity features taken into account to guide conservation policies. Due to growing human pressure and climate change worldwide, chances of planning an effective CAN may be reduced. Santa Fe province is located in the center-east of Argentina and encompasses four bioregions highly threatened of the subtropical temperate South America. Intensive agriculture, livestock and hunting have led to the loss and degradation of its natural habitats and the current CAN fails on the coverage of bioregions. Our aim was to find out areas that enhance the persistence of threatened bird species in the Santa Fe province. We defined spatial conservation priorities that overlap environmentally suitable areas of species over time and overcome the likely impacts of human activity. Conservation priorities (top 20%) belonged mainly to Dry Chaco and Atlantic bioregions and will remain the same in the province. The current CAN mismatches spatial patterns of environmental suitability of threatened species. Sporophila hypochroma, Asthenes hudsoni and Spartonoica maluroides may lose more than half of their current environmentally suitable area in the future. Human activity will lead to a CAN which will require a great number of patches and a large perimeter. Searching for the most environmentally suitable areas of species over time while minimizing conflicts with human activities is a useful conservation strategy regardless the biogeographical context considered.
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Data availability
The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The following supported the work: CONICET (PIP 2011-0355), Universidad Nacional del Litoral (CAID-2016-UNL), ANPCYT (PICT 2016-1415 and PICT-2013-2203 FONCYT). We thank the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. We thank María Eugenia Rodriguez, Romina Pavé and Carla Bessa, and the Instituto Nacional de Limnología (CONICET-UNL) that allowed our work.
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Online Resource 2 Boxplot of the predictive performance of MaxEnt for all threatened species of Santa Fe province: AUC (top) and Boyce index (bottom)
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Online Resource 3 Environmentally suitable area of the threatened and near threatened species of Santa Fe province in the present and future in both periods (2030 and 2050) and all Global Circular Models. The Santa Fe province border is highlighted with a black line. Regions that may become unsuitable, suitable and remained unchanged with respect to suitability are shown in pink, yellow and green, respectively. Global Circular Model: the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model of Environment Canada Climatic Change (cccma); the Coupled Model version 4.0 of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (ipsl); and the Model HadCM3 of the Met Office of United Kingdom (ukmo)
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Cristaldi, M.A., Sarquis, J.A., Arzamendia, V. et al. Human activity and climate change as determinants of spatial prioritization for the conservation of globally threatened birds in the southern Neotropic (Santa Fe, Argentina). Biodivers Conserv 28, 2531–2553 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-019-01774-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-019-01774-z