Biodiversity and Conservation

, Volume 21, Issue 10, pp 2589–2599 | Cite as

Herbarium records do not predict rediscovery of presumed nationally extinct species

  • Kwek Yan Chong
  • Serena M. L. Lee
  • Aik Teck Gwee
  • Paul K. F. Leong
  • Samsuri Ahmad
  • Wee Foong Ang
  • Alvin F. S. L. Lok
  • Chow Khoon Yeo
  • Richard T. Corlett
  • Hugh T. W. Tan
Original Paper

Abstract

Rediscoveries of species previously thought to be extinct present a dilemma to conservation biology. On one hand, such instances offer the chance to change the course of events away from one that would have led to extinctions. On the other hand, public support for conservation may wane if scientists are frequently seen to overstate and prematurely declare extinctions. Recent studies have adopted a probabilistic approach to infer extinction, using sightings or collections and statistical models to calculate the chance that a species may still be extant. We conduct the first broad-scale test of such models using a recently compiled national red list and national herbarium collection records, including collections of presumed nationally extinct species made after the red list publication, which constitute “rediscoveries”. There was little evidence that the probabilities calculated by these models were associated with rediscoveries over a 3.5-year period. Current probabilistic models of extinction using sighting records could hence be inadequate for use with most natural history collection data.

Keywords

Extinct species Rediscovery Lazarus effect Herbarium collections Sighting rate equations 

Supplementary material

10531_2012_319_MOESM1_ESM.xls (112 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (XLS 112 kb)

References

  1. Ang WF, Lok AFSL, Tan HTW (2010a) Rediscovery in Singapore of Pinanga simplicifrons (Miq.) Becc. (Arecaceae). Nat Singap 3: 83–86. Available online: http://rmbr.nus.edu.sg/nis/bulletin2010/2010nis083-086.pdf
  2. Ang WF, Lok AFSL, Yeo CK, Tan SY, Tan HTW (2010b) Rediscovery of Dendrobium aloifolium (Blume) Rchb.f. (Orchidaceae) in Singapore. Nat Singap 3: 321–325. Available online: http://rmbr.nus.edu.sg/nis/bulletin2010/2010nis321-325.pdf
  3. Brook BW, Sodhi NS, Ng PKL (2003) Catastrophic extinctions follow deforestation in Singapore. Nature 424:420–423PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multi-model inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  5. Butchart SHM, Stattersfield AJ, Brooks TM (2006) Going or gone: defining ‘possibly extinct’ species to give a truer picture of recent extinctions. Bull Br Ornithol Club 126A:7–24Google Scholar
  6. Carpaneto GM, Mazziotta A, Valerio L (2007) Inferring species decline from collection records: roller dung beetles in Italy (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae). Divers Distrib 13:903–919CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Collar NJ (1998) Extinction by assumption; or, the Romeo error on Cebu. Oryx 32:239–244CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Collen B, Purvis A, Mace GM (2010) When is a species really extinct? Testing extinction inference from a sighting record to inform conservation assessment. Divers Distrib 16:755–764CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Corlett RT (2009) Seed dispersal distances and plant migration potential in Tropical East Asia. Biotropica 41:592–598CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. de Iongh HH, Bal D (2007) Harmonization of Red Lists in Europe: some lessons learned in the Netherlands when applying the new IUCN Red List Categories and Critieria version 3.1. Endanger Species Res 3:53–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Duffy KJ, Kingston NE, Sayers BA, Roberts DL, Stout JC (2009) Inferring national and regional declines of rare orchid species with probabilistic models. Conserv Biol 23:184–195PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dutson GCL, Magsalay PM, Timmins RJ (1993) The rediscovery of the Cebu Flowerpecker Diaceum quadricolor, with notes on other forest birds on Cebu, Philippines. Bird Conserv Int 3:235–243CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Fisher DO, Blomberg SP (2011) Correlates of rediscovery and the detectability of extinction in mammals. Proc R Soc B 278:1090–1097PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Fitzpatrick JW, Lammertink M, Luneau DM Jr, Gallagher TW, Harrison BR, Sparling GM, Rosenberg KV, Rohrbaugh RW, Swarthout ECH, Wrege PH, Swarthout SB, Dantzker MS, Charif RA, Barksdale TR, Remsen JV Jr, Simon SD, Douglas Z (2005) Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) persists in continental North America. Science 308:1460–1462PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Fitzpatrick JW, Lammertink M, Luneau DM Jr, Gallagher TW, Rosenberg KV (2006a) Response to comment on “Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) persists in continental North America”. Science 311:1555bCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Fitzpatrick JW, Lammertink M, Luneau DM Jr, Rosenberg KV, Gallagher TW, Rohrbaugh RW (2006b) Response to “Ivory-billed or Pileated Woodpecker?”. Science 315:1496Google Scholar
  17. Fitzpatrick JW, Lammertink M, Luneau DM Jr, Gallagher TW, Harrison BR, Sparling GM, Rosenberg KV, Rohrbaugh RW, Swarthout ECH, Wrege PH, Swarthout SB, Dantzker MS, Charif RA, Barksdale TR, Remsen JV Jr, Simon SD, Douglas Z (2006c) Clarifications about current research on the status of Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) in Arkansas. Auk 123:587–593CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hance J (2011) Worldwide search for ‘lost frogs’ ends with 4 % success, but some surprises. http://news.mongabay.com/2011/0215-hance_lostfrogs.html Accessed 31 Aug 2011
  19. Jackson JA (2006) Ivoy-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis): hope, and the interfaces of science, conservation, and politics. Auk 123:1–15CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Keith DA, Burgman MA (2004) The Lazarus effect: can the dynamics of extinct species lists tell us anything about the status of biodiversity? Biol Conserv 117:41–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Keller V, Zbinden N, Schmid H, Volet B (2005) A case study in applying the IUCN regional guidelines for national Red Lists and justifications for their modification. Conserv Biol 19:1827–1834CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Ladle RJ, Jepson P, Araújo MB, Whittaker RJ (2004) Dangers of crying wolf over risk of extinctions. Nature 428:799PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Lee SML, Samsuri A, Leong P, Gwee AT, Kiew R (2005) Extinct species. Gardenwise 24:12Google Scholar
  24. Leong P (2005) Rediscovery of extinct native orchids. Gardenwise 24:12–13Google Scholar
  25. Lok ASFL, Ang WF, Chong KY, Tan HTW (2010) Rediscovery of Liparis barbata Lindl. (Orchidaceae) in Singapore. Nature Singapore 3: 277–281. Available online: http://rmbr.nus.edu.sg/nis/bulletin2010/2010nis277-281.pdf
  26. McCarthy MA (1998) Indentifying declining and threatened species with museum data. Biol Conserv 83:9–17CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. McInerny GJ, Roberts DL, Davy AJ, Cribb PJ (2006) Significance of sighting rate in inferring extinction and threat. Conserv Biol 20:562–567PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Mikusinski G, Blicharska M, Baxter PWJ (2010) Costs and benefits of ivory-billed woodpecker “rediscovery”. Front Ecol Environ 8:460CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Pimm SL, Jenkins CN (2010) Extinctions and the practice of preventing them. In: Sodhi NS, Ehrlich PR (eds) Conservation biology for all. Oxford University Press, UK, pp 181–199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Rabor DS (1959) The impact of deforestation on birds of Cebu, Philippines, with new records for that island. Auk 76:37–43Google Scholar
  31. Rivadeneira MM, Hunt G, Roy K (2009) The use of sighting records to infer species extinctions: an evaluation of different methods. Ecology 90:1291–1300PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Roberts DL (2006) Extinct of possibly extinct? Science 312:997PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Roberts DL, Solow AR (2003) When did the dodo become extinct? Nature 426:245PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Roberts DL, Elphick CS, Reed JM (2010) Identifying anomalous reports of putatively extinct species and why it matters. Conserv Biol 24:189–196PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. R Development Core Team (2009) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. http://www.R-project.org
  36. Sibley DA, Bevier LR, Patten MA, Elphick CS (2006a) Comment on “Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) persists in continental North America”. Science 311:1555aCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Sibley DA, Bevier LR, Patten MA, Elphick CS (2006b) Ivory-billed or Pileated Woodpecker? Science 315:1495CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Sodhi NS, Koh LP, Peh KS-H, Tan HTW, Chazdon RL, Corlett RT, Lee TM, Colwell RK, Brook BW, Sekercioglu CH, Bradshaw CJA (2008) Correlates of extinction proneness in tropical angiosperms. Divers Distrib 14:1–10CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Sodhi NS, Brook BW, Bradshaw CJA (2009) Causes and consequences of species extinctions. In: Levin SA (ed) The Princeton guide to ecology. Princeton University Press, USA, pp 515–520Google Scholar
  40. Solow AR (1993a) Inferring extinction from sighting data. Ecology 74:962–964CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Solow AR (1993b) Inferring extinction in a declining population. J Math Biol 32:79–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Solow AR (2005) Inferring extinction from a sighting record. Math Biosci 195:47–55PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Solow AR, Roberts DL (2003) A nonparametric test for extinction based on a sighting record. Ecology 84:1329CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Tan BC, Tan HTW, Tan K-x, Ibrahim AB, Chew PT, Chua KS, Gwee AT, Kiew R, Lee SML, Leong P, Lok AFSL, Loo AHB, Lum SKY, Morgany T, Suran SB, Sim S, Ahmad HSBH, Wee YC, Yeo CK, Yong JWH (2008) Checklists of threatened species—Ferns and fern allies. In: Davison GWH, Ng PKL, Ho HC (eds) The Singapore Red Data Book, 2nd edn. The Nature Society (Singapore), Singapore, pp 210–212Google Scholar
  45. Tan HTW, Tan K-x, Ibrahim AB, Chew PT, Chua KS, Duistermaat H, Ganesan SK, Goh MWK, Gwee AT, Kiew R, Lee SML, Leong P, Lim J, Lok AFSL, Loo AHB, Lum SKY, Morgany T, Suran SB, Sim S, Ahmad HSBH, Wee YC, Yap KF, Yeo CK, Yong JWH (2008) Checklists of Threatened species—Seed plants In: Davison GWH, Ng PKL, Ho HC (eds) The Singapore Red Data Book, 2nd edn. The Nature Society (Singapore), Singapore, pp 213–244Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kwek Yan Chong
    • 1
  • Serena M. L. Lee
    • 2
  • Aik Teck Gwee
    • 2
  • Paul K. F. Leong
    • 2
  • Samsuri Ahmad
    • 2
  • Wee Foong Ang
    • 1
  • Alvin F. S. L. Lok
    • 1
  • Chow Khoon Yeo
    • 1
  • Richard T. Corlett
    • 1
  • Hugh T. W. Tan
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Biological SciencesNational University of SingaporeSingaporeSingapore
  2. 2.Singapore Botanic GardensNational Parks Board of SingaporeSingaporeSingapore

Personalised recommendations