Biological Invasions

, 11:1373 | Cite as

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

  • Catherine S. Jarnevich
  • Thomas J. Stohlgren
Original Paper


Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas.


Invasive species Climate change GARP Modeling Species distributions Climate variation 



This work was partially supported by funding the United States Geological Survey through their research opportunities in global change science program. We would like to thank two reviewers for their comments. We would also like to thank the data contributors to the sites where we obtained field data for their willingness to share. To all we are grateful.


  1. Anderson RP, Lew D, Peterson AT (2003) Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecol Model 162:211–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Beaumont LJ, Pitman AJ, Poulsen M, Hughes L (2007) Where will species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions. Glob Change Biol 13:1368–1385. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01357.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Clark JS, Lewis M, McLachlan JS, HilleRisLambers J (2003) Estimating population spread: what can we forecast and how well? Ecology 84:1979–1988. doi: 10.1890/01-0618 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Crooks JA (2005) Lag times and exotic species: the ecology and management of biological invasions in slow-motion. Ecoscience 12:316–329. doi: 10.2980/i1195-6860-12-3-316.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Daly C, Taylor GH, Gibson WP, Parzybok TW, Johnson GL, Pasteris PA (2000) High-quality spatial climate data sets for the United States and beyond. Trans ASAE 43:1957–1962Google Scholar
  6. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudik M, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hijmans RJ, Huettmann F, Leathwick JR, Lehmann A, Li J, Lohmann LG, Loiselle BA, Manion G, Moritz C, Nakamura M, Nakazawa Y, Overton JM, Peterson AT, Phillips SJ, Richardson K, Scachetti-Pereira R, Schapire RE, Soberon J, Williams S, Wisz MS, Zimmermann NE (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Evangelista P, Kumar S, Stohlgren TJ, Jarnevich CS, Crall AW, Norman JB III, et al. (2008) Model selection for predicting a habitat generalist (Bromus tectorum) and a specialist (Tamarix chinensis) invasive plant species in Grand Staircase Escalante National Monument, Utah, USA. Divers Distrib 14:808–871CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38–49. doi: 10.1017/S0376892997000088 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Govindasamy B, Duffy PB, Coquard J (2003) High-resolution simulations of global climate, part 2: effects of increased greenhouse cases. Clim Dyn 21:391–404. doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0340-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Graham J, Newman G, Jarnevich C, Shory R, Stohlgren TJ (2007) A global organism detection and monitoring system for non-native species. Ecol Inform 2:177–183CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hijmans RJ, Graham CH (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Glob Change Biol 12:2272–2281CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978. doi: 10.1002/joc.1276 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Levinsky I, Skov F, Svenning JC, Rahbek C (2007) Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals. Biodivers Conserv 16:3803–3816. doi: 10.1007/s10531-007-9181-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Araujo MB, Martinez-Meyer E, Brotons L, McClean C, Miles L, Segurado P, Dawson TP, Lees DC (2006) Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. J Biogeogr 33:1704–1711 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Raxworthy CJ, Martinez-Meyer E, Horning N, Nussbaum RA, Schneider GE, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT (2003) Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar. Nature 426:837–841PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Ricciardi A, Steiner WWM, Mack RN, Simberloff D (2000) Toward a global information system for invasive species. Bioscience 50:239–244 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Simpson A, Sellers E, Grosse A, Xie Y (2006) Essential elements of online information networks on invasive alien species. Biol Invasions 8:1579–1587CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Stohlgren TJ, Barnett DT, Jarnevich CS, Flather C, Kartesz J (2008) The myth of plant species saturation. Ecol Lett 11:313–326. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01153.x PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, de Siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT, Phillips OL, Williams SE (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Thuiller W, Albert C, Araújo MB, Berry PM, Guisan G, Hickler T, et al. (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species distributions: future challenges. Perspect Plant Ecol Evol Syst 9:137–152CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Thuiller W, Brotons L, Araujo MB, Lavorel S (2004) Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography 27:165–172. doi: 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03673.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Fort Collins Science CenterU.S. Geological SurveyFort CollinsUSA

Personalised recommendations