Advertisement

Evaluating seismic risk in small and medium-sized cities with the modified vulnerability index method, a case study in Jiangyou City, China

  • Hao Zheng
  • Lanlan GuoEmail author
  • Jifu Liu
  • Tao Zheng
  • Zhifei Deng
Original Research
  • 29 Downloads

Abstract

The rapid urbanization of China generated not only dozens of megacities but also a great number of surrounding small and medium-sized cities. The utter lack of seismic risk assessments for small and medium-sized cities is emerging as a potential threat. A seismic risk evaluation of a medium-sized city, Jiangyou, is presented with the modified vulnerability index method (VIM), based on the investigation of 6369 buildings for a scenario corresponding to the destructive historical earthquake of May 12, 2008 (MW 7.9). The population-time-land (PTL) model is used to estimate the human deaths (MD) and resettlement population (MR). The direct economic loss from physical damage to buildings is calculated. The results show that the modified VIM not only can indicate that the distributions of building seismic vulnerability and direct economic loss are closely related with city plans, but reflect the seismic performance characteristics of buildings and the huge differences in seismic consequences under different time scenarios. Evaluating seismic risk in small and medium-sized cities will support accurate and comprehensive seismic risk mitigation strategies setting in similar rapid urbanization areas under earthquake threats.

Keywords

Seismic risk Seismic vulnerability Risk scenario Vulnerability index method 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work is financially supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1503004 and 2017YFC1503000), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41621061).

Supplementary material

10518_2019_757_MOESM1_ESM.docx (14.4 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 14782 kb)

References

  1. Ara S (2014) Impact of temporal population distribution on earthquake loss estimation: a case study on Sylhet, Bangladesh. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 5:296–312CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Benedetti D, Petrini V (1984) Sulla vulnerabilitá sismica di edifici in muratura: proposte di un metodo di valutazione. L’industria delle Construzioni 149:66–74 (in Italia) Google Scholar
  3. Bernardini A, Giovinazzi S, Lagomarsino S, Parodi S (2007) Vulnerabilità e previsione di danno a scala territoriale secondo una metodologia macrosismica coerente con la scala EMS-98. ANIDIS. In: XII Convegno Nazionale l’ingegneria sismica in Italia, pp 10–14 (in Italia) Google Scholar
  4. Birkmann J, Welle T, Solecki W, Lwasa S, Garschagen M (2016) Boost resilience of small and mid-sized cities. Nat News 537:605CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Brookshire DS, Chang SE, Cochrane H, Olson RA, Rose A, Steenson J (1997) Direct and indirect economic losses from earthquake damage. Earthq Spectra 13:683–701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chauvin JP, Glaeser E, Ma Y, Tobio K (2017) What is different about urbanization in rich and poor countries? Cities in Brazil, China, India and the United States. J Urban Econ 98:17–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chen J, Davis DS, Wu K, Dai H (2015) Life satisfaction in urbanizing China: the effect of city size and pathways to urban residency. Cities 49:88–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chen M, Liu W, Lu D (2016) Challenges and the way forward in China’s new-type urbanization. Land Use Policy 55:334–339CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Cherif S-e, Chourak M, Abed M, Pujades L (2017) Seismic risk in the city of Al Hoceima (north of Morocco) using the vulnerability index method, applied in Risk-UE project. Nat Hazards 85:329–347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cole SW, Xu Y, Burton PW (2008) Seismic hazard and risk in Shanghai and estimation of expected building damage. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 28:778–794CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. CSIS (2008) The Chinese seismic intensity scale: GB/T 17742-2008. Standards Press of China, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  12. Deng QD (2002) Exploration and seismic hazard assessment of active faults in urban areas. Seismol Geol 4:015Google Scholar
  13. EC8 (1998) Eurocode 8: design of structures for earthquake resistance, EN 1998-1: 2004. European Committee of Standardization, BrusselsGoogle Scholar
  14. Erdik M et al (2003) Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area. Earthq Eng Eng Vib 2:1–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Ferreira MA, Oliveira CS, Mota de Sá F (2011) Estimating human losses in earthquake models: a discussion. In: Spence R, So E, Scawthorn C (eds) Human casualties in earthquakes. Springer, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  16. Ferreira TM, Vicente R, Da Silva JM, Varum H, Costa A (2013) Seismic vulnerability assessment of historical urban centres: case study of the old city centre in Seixal, Portugal. Bull Earthq Eng 11:1753–1773CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Fu ZX, Li GP (1993) Study on life losses from earthquake. Seismological Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  18. Gao M (2003) New national seismic zoning map of China. Acta Seismol Sin 16:639–645CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Gao J, Feng Q, Zhang H (2007) Simulation method for earthquake damage of urban group structures. Technol Earthq Disaster Prev 2(2):193–200Google Scholar
  20. He YL, Li DH, Fan KH, Liu SL (2002) Research on the seismic vulnerability of building structure in Sichuan province. Earthq Res China 18:52–58Google Scholar
  21. Huang Q, Meng S, He C, Dou Y, Zhang Q (2018) Rapid urban land expansion in earthquake-prone areas of China. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 10:1–14Google Scholar
  22. ISDR U (2005) Hyogo framework for action 2005–2015: building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. In: Extract from the final report of the world conference on disaster reduction (A/CONF. 206/6). The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  23. Lantada N, Pujades LG, Barbat AH (2009) Vulnerability index and capacity spectrum based methods for urban seismic risk evaluation. A comparison. Nat Hazards 51:501CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Lantada N, Irizarry J, Barbat A, Goula X, Roca A, Susagna T, Pujades L (2010) Seismic hazard and risk scenarios for Barcelona, Spain, using the Risk-UE vulnerability index method. Bull Earthq Eng 8:201–229CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Martins AN, Forbes C, Pereira AA, Matos D (2018) The changing city: risk and built heritage. The case of Lisbon downtown. Procedia Eng 212:921–928CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Meng B, Wang JF (2005) A review on the methodology of scaling with geo-data. Acta Geogr Sin 60:277–288Google Scholar
  27. Milutinovic ZV, Trendafiloski GS (2003a) Risk-UE an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with applications to different European towns. Contract: EVK4-CT-2000-00014:WP4: vulnerability of current buildingsGoogle Scholar
  28. Milutinovic ZV, Trendafiloski GS (2003b) WP4: vulnerability of current buildings handbook. Risk-UE project an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with applications to different European towns. Contract No. EVK4-CT-2000-00014, Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS), SkopjeGoogle Scholar
  29. MOHURD (1989) Code for seismic design of buildings: GBJ11-89. China Architecture and Building Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  30. MOHURD (2001) Code for seismic design of buildings: GB50011-2001. China Architecture and Building Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  31. MOHURD (2002) Code for investigation of geotechnical engineering: GB50021-2007. Construction Industry Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  32. MOHURD (2007) Standard for urban planning on earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention: GB50413-2007. Construction Industry Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  33. Mouroux P, Le Brun B (2006) Presentation of RISK-UE project. Bull Earthq Eng 4:323–339CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. NCDR (2008) Comprehensive analysis and evaluation of Wenchuan earthquake disasters. Science Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  35. Qi W, Li Y, Liu SH, Gao X, Zhao M (2013) Estimation of urban population at daytime and nighttime and analyses of their spatial pattern: a case study of Haidian District, Beijing. Acta Geogr Sin 68:1344–1356Google Scholar
  36. Qiang L, Yulin C, Jingming L (2012) On the “development mode” of Chinese urbanization. Soc Sci China 7:82–100Google Scholar
  37. Salgado-Gálvez MA, Romero DZ, Velásquez CA, Carreño ML, Cardona O-D, Barbat AH (2016) Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations. Nat Hazards 80:1995–2021CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Shi PJ (2011) Atlas of natural disaster risk of China. Science Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  39. Shiono K, Krimgold F, Ohta Y (1991) Post-event rapid estimation of earthquake fatalities for the management of rescue activity. Compr Urban Stud 44:61–106Google Scholar
  40. SSB (2016) Sichuan statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  41. Statistics NBo (2016) China statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  42. Sun BT, Chen H, Yan P, Zhang G, Yingzi Z (2014) Research on zoned characteristics of building seismic capacity along north south seismic belt-take Sichuan Province as an example. China Civ Eng J 47:6–10Google Scholar
  43. UNDP (2004) Reducing disaster risk: a challenge for development—a global report. United Nations, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  44. Wang H (2007) Simulation method for earthquake damage of urban group structures. Ocean University of China, QingdaoGoogle Scholar
  45. Wei Q, Shenghe L, Haoran J (2016) Applicability of the new standard of city-size classification in China. Prog Geogr 35:47–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. White P, Pelling M, Sen K, Seddon D, Russell S, Few R (2005) Disaster risk reduction: a development concern. DfID, LondonGoogle Scholar
  47. Xu XW (2006) Active faults, associated earthquake disaster distribution and policy for disaster reduction. Technol Earthq Disaster Prev 1:7–14Google Scholar
  48. Xu W, Wang JA, Pj Shi (2004) Hazard degree assessment of urban earthquake disaster in China. J Nat Disasters 13:9–15Google Scholar
  49. Xu GD, Fang WH, Shi PJ, Yuan Y (2008) The fast loss assessment of the Wenchuan earthquake. J Earthq Eng Eng Vib 6:012Google Scholar
  50. Xue JF, Chen W, Cao YH (2012) Spatial pattern of urbanization in China since 2000 and its relationship with economic development—analysis based on cities units. Resour Environ Yangtze Basin 21:1–7Google Scholar
  51. Yin ZQ (2004) Earthquake loss analysis and design criterion. Seismological Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  52. Yin ZQ, Li SZ, Yang SW (1987) Estimation of earthquake damage to RC single-story factory buildings. Earthq Eng Eng Vib 4:78–86Google Scholar
  53. You X (2013) The house seismic risk assessment and its insurance model design. Shenyang Aerospace University, ShenyangGoogle Scholar
  54. Yuan YF (2007) Post-earthquake field works part 4: assessment of direct loss: GB/T18208.4-2005. Seismological Press, BeijingGoogle Scholar
  55. Yuan HH, Gao XL, Qi W (2016) Assessing the seismic risk of cities at fine-scale: a case study of Haidian district in Beijing. China Seismol Geol 38:197–210Google Scholar
  56. Zhang C (2002) Analysis and research on the economic development strategy of Jiangyou City. Southwest Jiaotong University, ChengduGoogle Scholar
  57. Zhang PZ, Xu XW, Wen XZ, Ran YK (2008) Slip rates and recurrence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone, and tectonic implications for the mechanism of the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake, 2008, Sichuan, China. Chin J Geophys Chin Ed 51(4):1066–1073Google Scholar
  58. Zhang J, Bo J, Yuan Y, Huang J (2012) Review of research on active fault and its setback. J Nat Disasters 21:9–18Google Scholar
  59. Zong B (2016) The National Development and Reform Commission and the China Earthquake Administration jointly issued the “earthquake prevention and disaster reduction plan (2016–2020). Engineering Construction Standardization, pp 35–35Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
  3. 3.China Railway First Group Construction and Installation Engineering Co., LtdXianChina
  4. 4.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations