Rapid seismic loss assessment using new probabilistic demand and consequence models

  • M. Kia
  • M. Banazadeh
  • M. BayatEmail author
Original Research


This paper proposes a set of new Bayesian regression models to perform first order reliability method (FORM) calculations of repair cost exceedance probability. The models are classified in two categories, story-specific demand model and consequence models. The demand model developed in the form of linear equation predicts maximum acceleration and drift at each story of low-to mid-rise regular steel moment resisting frames. The consequence models are formulated as polynomial functions based on output provided by the upstream demand model and estimate repair cost of 30 building fragility groups. Next, the application of the proposed models in a first order reliability analysis to compute seismic loss probabilities for some example buildings is evaluated. The results are compared with those of a FEMA P-58 full simulation-based analysis and the computation reduction provided by utilization of the proposed regression models in the context of the FORM is assessed. Based on this finding, the practically appealing potential of the developed models is shown.


First order reliability method Probabilistic demand and consequence model Seismic repair cost estimate Steel moment frame 



First order reliability method


Incremental dynamic analysis


Intensity measure


Engineering demand parameters


Strength/stiffness distribution


Number of stories


Fundamental period


Complementary cumulative distribution function

\( UC_{i} \)

Represents average repair cost


Lateral yield coefficient (ratio of yield base shear to the building weight)




Story number

\( TQ_{i} \)

Total quantity



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Copyright information

© Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Science and Technology of MazandaranBehshahrIran
  2. 2.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringAmirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic)TehranIran
  3. 3.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of PittsburghPittsburghUSA

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