Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

, Volume 16, Issue 8, pp 3439–3463 | Cite as

Ground-motion characterization for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Turkey

  • Sinan Akkar
  • Özkan Kale
  • Ahmet Yakut
  • Ulubey Çeken
Original Research Paper


This study describes the methodology implemented to establish the ground-motion logic-tree for national probabilistic seismic hazard map of Turkey for shallow active crustal regions. The presented procedure provides quantitative information to guide the hazard experts while establishing the logic tree to capture the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion characterization. It uses non-data-driven and data-driven testing methods to identify and rank candidate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) under a specific ground-motion database. The candidate GMPEs are subjected to visual inspection and are classified into center, body and range (CBR) spectral estimates for a proper consideration of epistemic uncertainty. The GMPEs classified into CBR are then used in a suite of seismic hazard sensitivity analysis to establish the most suitable GMPE logic-tree whose spectral estimates are not biased by any one of the GMPEs in the logic-tree structure. The sensitivity analysis considers normalized spectral ordinates and is not manipulated by the spectral amplitudes. The proposed procedure is inherited from the relevant studies of the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME; regional seismic hazard project. This paper also highlights the similarities and differences in ground-motion characterization between EMME and our approach.


Turkish seismic hazard map Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Ground-motion characterization GMPE testing and ranking GMPE logic-tree 



The work presented in this article has been developed during the course of UDAP-Ç-13-06 project funded by Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) and Turkish Natural Catastrophe and Insurance Pool (DASK). We thank Dr. Laurentiu for providing us the EMME hazard map presented in Fig. 13. We extend our thanks to Prof. Bommer and Dr. Slejko who provided constructive comments that lead to significant improvements in the paper.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Earthquake Engineering Department, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research InstituteBoğaziçi UniversityÇengelköy, IstanbulTurkey
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringMiddle East Technical UniversityÇankaya, AnkaraTurkey
  3. 3.Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management AuthorityKızılırmak Mah. Ufuk Üniversitesi Cad. No: 12Çankaya, AnkaraTurkey

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