Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

, Volume 14, Issue 9, pp 2495–2512 | Cite as

Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

  • Carlo CauzziEmail author
  • Yannik Behr
  • Thomas Le Guenan
  • John Douglas
  • Samuel Auclair
  • Jochen Woessner
  • John Clinton
  • Stefan Wiemer
Original Research Paper


Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.


Earthquake early warning Operational earthquake forecasting Nuclear power plants Cost benefit analysis 



The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007–2013] under grant agreement no. 282862. We are thankful to prof. Paolo Gasparini and dr. Georgia Cua for defining the milestones and supporting the development of our work plan in REAKT. We are thankful to the EEW research group at Caltech for allowing us to access and use the ShakeAlert UserDisplay software at a preliminary stage of our project. The feedback of swissnuclear and dr. Philippe Renault in REAKT is gratefully acknowledged. We are thankful to the Chief Editor prof. Ansal and three anonymous reviewers who helped to improve our manuscript with useful suggestions and comments.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carlo Cauzzi
    • 1
    Email author
  • Yannik Behr
    • 1
  • Thomas Le Guenan
    • 2
  • John Douglas
    • 2
    • 4
  • Samuel Auclair
    • 2
  • Jochen Woessner
    • 1
    • 3
  • John Clinton
    • 1
  • Stefan Wiemer
    • 1
  1. 1.Swiss Seismological Service (SED)ETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
  2. 2.BRGM (French Geological Survey)OrleansFrance
  3. 3.Risk Management Solutions (RMS) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
  4. 4.University of StrathclydeGlasgowUK

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