Evaluating Child Welfare Policies with Decision-Analytic Simulation Models
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- Goldhaber-Fiebert, J.D., Bailey, S.L., Hurlburt, M.S. et al. Adm Policy Ment Health (2012) 39: 466. doi:10.1007/s10488-011-0370-z
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The objective was to demonstrate decision-analytic modeling in support of Child Welfare policymakers considering implementing evidence-based interventions. Outcomes included permanency (e.g., adoptions) and stability (e.g., foster placement changes). Analyses of a randomized trial of KEEP—a foster parenting intervention—and NSCAW-1 estimated placement change rates and KEEP’s effects. A microsimulation model generalized these findings to other Child Welfare systems. The model projected that KEEP could increase permanency and stability, identifying strategies targeting higher-risk children and geographical regions that achieve benefits efficiently. Decision-analytic models enable planners to gauge the value of potential implementations.