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Artificial Intelligence Review

, Volume 46, Issue 3, pp 307–326 | Cite as

Prediction intervals for industrial data with incomplete input using kernel-based dynamic Bayesian networks

  • Long Chen
  • Ying LiuEmail author
  • Jun Zhao
  • Wei Wang
  • Quanli Liu
Article

Abstract

Reliable prediction intervals (PIs) construction for industrial time series is substantially significant for decision-making in production practice. Given the industrial data feature of high level noises and incomplete input, a high order dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)-based PIs construction method for industrial time series is proposed in this study. For avoiding to designate the amount and type of the basis functions in advance, a linear combination of kernel functions is designed to describe the relationships between the nodes in the network, and a learning method based on the scoring criterion—the sparse Bayesian score, is then reported to acquire suitable model parameters such as the weights and the variances. To verify the performance of the proposed method, two types of time series which are the classical Mackey-Glass data mixed by additive noises and a real-world industrial data are employed. The results indicate the effectiveness of our proposed method for the PIs construction of the industrial data with incomplete input.

Keywords

Prediction intervals Dynamic Bayesian network Kernel Sparse Bayesian learning Incomplete input 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (No. 61273037, 61304213, 61473056, 61533005, 61522304, U1560102), the National Sci-Tech Support Plan (No. 2015BAF22B01) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (DUT15YQ113).

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Long Chen
    • 1
  • Ying Liu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Jun Zhao
    • 1
  • Wei Wang
    • 1
  • Quanli Liu
    • 1
  1. 1.School of Control Sciences and EngineeringDalian University of TechnologyDalianChina

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