An Online Risk Index for the Cross-Sectional Prediction of New HIV Chlamydia, and Gonorrhea Diagnoses Across U.S. Counties and Across Years
The present study evaluated the potential use of Twitter data for providing risk indices of STIs. We developed online risk indices (ORIs) based on tweets to predict new HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia diagnoses, across U.S. counties and across 5 years. We analyzed over one hundred million tweets from 2009 to 2013 using open-vocabulary techniques and estimated the ORIs for a particular year by entering tweets from the same year into multiple semantic models (one for each year). The ORIs were moderately to strongly associated with the actual rates (.35 < rs < .68 for 93% of models), both nationwide and when applied to single states (California, Florida, and New York). Later models were slightly better than older ones at predicting gonorrhea and chlamydia, but not at predicting HIV. The proposed technique using free social media data provides signals of community health at a high temporal and spatial resolution.
KeywordsHIV Chlamydia Gonorrhea Social media Big data
This work was funded by a National Institutes of Health grant. We are grateful to Travis Sanchez, Patrick S. Sullivan, and Yisi Liu for their help in data collection.
This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health (Grant Number R56 AI114501 to D. A.).
Compliance with Ethical Standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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