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EcoHealth

, Volume 15, Issue 1, pp 52–62 | Cite as

Translating Predictions of Zoonotic Viruses for Policymakers

  • Seth D. Judson
  • Matthew LeBreton
  • Trevon Fuller
  • Risa M. Hoffman
  • Kevin Njabo
  • Timothy F. Brewer
  • Elsa Dibongue
  • Joseph Diffo
  • Jean-Marc Feussom Kameni
  • Severin Loul
  • Godwin W. Nchinda
  • Richard Njouom
  • Julius Nwobegahay
  • Jean Michel Takuo
  • Judith N. Torimiro
  • Abel Wade
  • Thomas B. Smith
Original Contribution

Abstract

Recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease and Zika virus disease highlight the need for disseminating accurate predictions of emerging zoonotic viruses to national governments for disease surveillance and response. Although there are published maps for many emerging zoonotic viruses, it is unknown if there is agreement among different models or if they are concordant with national expert opinion. Therefore, we reviewed existing predictions for five high priority emerging zoonotic viruses with national experts in Cameroon to investigate these issues and determine how to make predictions more useful for national policymakers. Predictive maps relied primarily on environmental parameters and species distribution models. Rift Valley fever virus and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus predictions differed from national expert opinion, potentially because of local livestock movements. Our findings reveal that involving national experts could elicit additional data to improve predictions of emerging pathogens as well as help repackage predictions for policymakers.

Keywords

Viruses Risk Virus diseases Hemorrhagic fevers Viral Ebola virus Bunyaviridae Arenaviridae Filoviridae 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was undertaken with approval from the Cameroon Ministry of Scientific Research and Innovation. This research has been supported by the UCLA Center for World Health and Global Health Education Program, NSF Partnerships for International Research and Education (PIRE) Grant No. 1243524, and the Congo Basin Institute in Cameroon.

Supplementary material

10393_2017_1304_MOESM1_ESM.docx (12.1 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 12370 kb)

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Copyright information

© EcoHealth Alliance 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Seth D. Judson
    • 1
  • Matthew LeBreton
    • 2
  • Trevon Fuller
    • 3
  • Risa M. Hoffman
    • 1
  • Kevin Njabo
    • 3
  • Timothy F. Brewer
    • 1
  • Elsa Dibongue
    • 4
  • Joseph Diffo
    • 5
  • Jean-Marc Feussom Kameni
    • 6
    • 7
  • Severin Loul
    • 6
  • Godwin W. Nchinda
    • 8
  • Richard Njouom
    • 9
  • Julius Nwobegahay
    • 10
  • Jean Michel Takuo
    • 5
  • Judith N. Torimiro
    • 8
  • Abel Wade
    • 11
  • Thomas B. Smith
    • 3
  1. 1.David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLALos AngelesUSA
  2. 2.MosaicYaoundéCameroon
  3. 3.University of CaliforniaLos AngelesUSA
  4. 4.Ministry of Public HealthYaoundéCameroon
  5. 5.Metabiota CameroonYaoundéCameroon
  6. 6.Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Animal IndustriesYaoundéCameroon
  7. 7.Epidemiology-Public Health-Veterinary Association (ESPV)YaoundéCameroon
  8. 8.The Chantal Biya International Reference Centre for Research on the Prevention and Management of HIV/AIDS (CIRCB)YaoundéCameroon
  9. 9.Center PasteurYaoundéCameroon
  10. 10.Military Health Research CenterYaoundéCameroon
  11. 11.National Veterinary Laboratory (LANAVET) AnnexYaoundéCameroon

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