Advertisement

EcoHealth

, Volume 9, Issue 3, pp 293–297 | Cite as

Climate Change and Microbiological Water Quality at California Beaches

  • Jan C. SemenzaEmail author
  • Joshua S. Caplan
  • Guido Buescher
  • Tapash Das
  • Mitchell V. Brinks
  • Alexander Gershunov
Short Communication

Abstract

Daily microbiological water quality and precipitation data spanning 6 years were collected from monitoring stations at southern California beaches. Daily precipitation projected for the twenty-first century was derived from downscaled CNRM CM3 global climate model. A time series model of Enterococcus concentrations that was driven by precipitation, matched the general trend of empirical water quality data; there was a positive association between precipitation and microbiological water contamination (P < 0.001). Future projections of precipitation result in a decrease in predicted Enterococcus levels through the majority of the twenty-first century. Nevertheless, variability of storminess due to climate change calls for innovative adaptation and surveillance strategies.

Keywords

climate change Enterococcus gastroenteritis precipitation recreational water use 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their critical feedback, and Ed Green and Ryan Dwight for their contribution.

Supplementary material

10393_2012_779_MOESM1_ESM.docx (21 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 20 kb)

References

  1. Barnett, T.P., Pierce, D.W., Hidalgo, H., Bonfils, C., Santer, B., Das, T., et al. (2008). Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 316, 1080–1083.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Boehm, A.B., Ashbolt, N.J., Colford, J.M.J., Dunbar, L.E., Fleming, L.E., Gold, M.A., et al. (2009). A sea change ahead for recreational water quality criteria. Journal of Water Health 7,(1), 9–20.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Boesch DF, Field JC, Scavia D (2000) The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources. Report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change US Decision Analysis Series Number # 21Google Scholar
  4. Brinks MV, Dwight RH, Osgood ND, Sharavanakumar G, Turbow DJ, El-Gohary M, et al. (2008). Health risk of bathing in southern california coastal waters. Arch Environ Occup Health 63(3):123–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Brinks, M.V., Dwight, R.H., Semenza, J.C. (2009). Response to editorial on “risk of recreational water use in southern California”. Archives of Environmental & Occupational Health 64,(3), 145-147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cabelli VJ, Dufour AP, McCabe LJ, Levin MA (1982). Swimming-associated gastroenteritis and water quality. American Journal of Epidemiology 115:606–616PubMedGoogle Scholar
  7. California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009) A report to the Governor of the State of California in Response to Executive Order S-13-2008Google Scholar
  8. David LM, Matos JS (2005) Combined sewer overflow emissions to bathing waters in Portugal. How to reduce in densely urbanised areas?. Water Science and Technology 52(9):183–190PubMedGoogle Scholar
  9. Dettinger MD (2006) A component-resampling approach for estimating probability distributions from small forecast ensembles. Climatic Change 76:149–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dettinger MD (2011) Climate change, atmospheric rivers and floods in California—A multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes. Journal of American Water Resources Association 47:514–523Google Scholar
  11. Dwight RH, Baker DB, Semenza JC, Olson BH (2004) Health effects associated with recreational coastal water use in urban vs. rural California. American Journal of Public Health 94(4):565–567PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dwight RH, Brinks MV, SharavanaKumar G, Semenza JC (2007) Beach attendance and bathing rates for Southern California beaches. Ocean and Coastal Management 50(10):847–858CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Dwight, R.H., Caplan, J.S., Brinks, M.V., Catlin, S.N., Buescher, G., Semenza, J.C. (2011). Influence of variable precipitation on coastal water quality in southern California. Water Environment Research 83,(12), 2121-2130.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. Dwight RH, Semenza JC, Baker DB, Olson, BH (2002) Association of urban runoff with coastal water quality in Orange County, California. Water Environment Research 74:82–89PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Favre, A., Gershunov, A. (2009). North Pacific cyclonic and anticyclonic transients in a global warming context: possible consequences for Western North American daily precipitation and temperature extremes. Climate Dynamics 32,(7-8), 969-987.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Gershunov, A., Cayan, D., Iacobellis, S. (2009). The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend. Journal of Climate 22, 6181-6203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Hegerl GC, Razuvaev VN (2005). Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. Journal of Climate 18:1326–1350CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Haile RW, Witte, J, Gold M, Cressey R, McGee C, Millikan RC, et al. (1999). The health effects of swimming in ocean water contaminated by storm drain runoff. Epidemiology 10(4):355–363PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. He LM, He ZL (2008) Water quality prediction of marine recreational beaches receiving watershed baseflow and stormwater runoff in southern California, USA. Water Research 42(10-11):2563–2573PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kay D, Fleisher JM, Salmon RL, Jones F, Wyer MD, Godfree AF, et al. (1994) Predicting likelihood of gastroenteritis from sea bathing: results from randomised exposure. Lancet 344:905–909PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Lindgren E, Andersson Y, Suk JE, Sudre B, Semenza, JC (2012). Monitoring EU emerging infectious disease risk due to climate change. Science 336, 418–419PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Maurer EP, Hidalgo HG (2008) Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. ydrology and Earth System Sciences 12:551–563CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Noble, R., Weisberg, S., Leecaster, M., McGee, C., Dorsey, J., Vainik, P., et al. (2003). Storm effects on regional beach water quality along the southern California shoreline. Journal of Water Health 1,(1), 23-31.Google Scholar
  24. Salas-Mélia D, Chauvin F, Déqué M, Douville H, Guérémy JF, Marquet P, et al. (2005) Description and validation of the CNRM-CM3 global coupled model. CNRM working note 103Google Scholar
  25. Semenza, J.C., Menne, B. (2009). Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe. The Lancet Infectious Disease 9,(6), 365-375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Semenza, J.C., Suk, J.E., Estevez, V., Ebi, K.L., Lindgren, E. (2012). Mapping climate change vulnerabilities to infectious diseases in Europe. Environmental Health Perspectives 120,(3), 385-392.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Soyeux, E., Blanchet, F., Tisserand, B. (2007). Stormwater overflow impacts on the sanitary quality of bathing waters. Water Science and Technology 56,(11), 43-50.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Suk, J.E., Semenza, J.C. (2011). Future infectious disease threats to Europe. American Journal of Public Health 101,(11), 2068-2079.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© International Association for Ecology and Health 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jan C. Semenza
    • 1
    Email author
  • Joshua S. Caplan
    • 2
  • Guido Buescher
    • 3
  • Tapash Das
    • 4
  • Mitchell V. Brinks
    • 5
  • Alexander Gershunov
    • 4
  1. 1.Office of the Chief ScientistEuropean Centre for Disease Preventions and Control (ECDC)StockholmSweden
  2. 2.Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural ResourcesRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickUSA
  3. 3.Institute of Health Economics and Clinical Epidemiology (IGKE)University Hospital CologneCologneGermany
  4. 4.Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of CaliforniaSan DiegoUSA
  5. 5.School of Public HealthOregon State UniversityEugeneUSA

Personalised recommendations