Climate Change and Microbiological Water Quality at California Beaches
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Daily microbiological water quality and precipitation data spanning 6 years were collected from monitoring stations at southern California beaches. Daily precipitation projected for the twenty-first century was derived from downscaled CNRM CM3 global climate model. A time series model of Enterococcus concentrations that was driven by precipitation, matched the general trend of empirical water quality data; there was a positive association between precipitation and microbiological water contamination (P < 0.001). Future projections of precipitation result in a decrease in predicted Enterococcus levels through the majority of the twenty-first century. Nevertheless, variability of storminess due to climate change calls for innovative adaptation and surveillance strategies.
Keywordsclimate change Enterococcus gastroenteritis precipitation recreational water use
We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their critical feedback, and Ed Green and Ryan Dwight for their contribution.
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