EcoHealth

, Volume 6, Issue 3, pp 378–389 | Cite as

Predicting the Distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: A Vibrio cholerae Case Study

  • Guillaume Constantin de Magny
  • Wen Long
  • Christopher W. Brown
  • Raleigh R. Hood
  • Anwar Huq
  • Raghu Murtugudde
  • Rita R. Colwell
Original Contribution

Abstract

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is a naturally occurring inhabitant of the Chesapeake Bay and serves as a predictor for other clinically important vibrios, including Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus. A system was constructed to predict the likelihood of the presence of V. cholerae in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay, with the goal to provide forecasts of the occurrence of this and related pathogenic Vibrio spp. Prediction was achieved by driving an available multivariate empirical habitat model estimating the probability of V. cholerae within a range of temperatures and salinities in the Bay, with hydrodynamically generated predictions of ambient temperature and salinity. The experimental predictions provided both an improved understanding of the in situ variability of V. cholerae, including identification of potential hotspots of occurrence, and usefulness as an early warning system. With further development of the system, prediction of the probability of the occurrence of related pathogenic vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, notably V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus, will be possible, as well as its transport to any geographical location where sufficient relevant data are available.

Keywords

Vibrio cholerae forecast Chesapeake Bay habitat models pathogens 

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Copyright information

© International Association for Ecology and Health 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Guillaume Constantin de Magny
    • 1
  • Wen Long
    • 2
    • 3
  • Christopher W. Brown
    • 2
    • 4
  • Raleigh R. Hood
    • 3
  • Anwar Huq
    • 5
  • Raghu Murtugudde
    • 2
  • Rita R. Colwell
    • 1
    • 5
    • 6
  1. 1.University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer StudiesCollege ParkUSA
  2. 2.Earth System Science Interdisciplinary CenterUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkUSA
  3. 3.Horn Point LaboratoryUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceCambridgeUSA
  4. 4.National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationCollege ParkUSA
  5. 5.Maryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of MarylandCollege ParkUSA
  6. 6.Department of Environmental HealthJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreUSA

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