pp 1–18 | Cite as

Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China

  • Xuanmei FanEmail author
  • Fan YangEmail author
  • Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian
  • Qiang Xu
  • Zetao Feng
  • Olga Mavrouli
  • Ming Peng
  • Chaojun Ouyang
  • John D. Jansen
  • Runqiu Huang
Recent Landslides


Successive major landslides during October and November 2018 in Baige village, eastern Tibet, dammed the Jinsha River on two occasions, and the subsequent dam breaches instigated a multi-hazard chain that flooded many towns downstream. Analysis of high-resolution aerial images and field investigations unveiled three potentially unstable rock mass clusters in the source area of the landslides, suggesting possible future failures with potential for river-damming and flooding. In order to evaluate and understand the disaster chain effect linked to the potentially unstable rock mass, we systematically studied the multi-hazard scenarios through an integrated numerical modelling approach. Our model begins with an evaluation of the probability of landslide failure, including runout and river damming, and then addresses the dam breach and resultant flood—hence simulating and visualising an entire disaster chain. The model parameters were calibrated using empirical data from the two Baige landslides. Then, we predict the future cascading hazards via seven scenarios according to all possible combinations of potential rock mass failure. For each scenario, the landslide runouts, dam-breaching, and flooding are numerically simulated with full consideration of uncertainties among the model input parameters. The maximum dam breach flood extent, depth, velocity, and peak arrival time are predicted at sequential sites downstream. As a first attempt to simulate the full spectrum of a landslide-induced multi-hazard chain, our study provides insights and substantiates the value provided by multi-hazard modelling. The integrated approach described here can be applied to similar landslide-induced chains of hazards in other regions.


Disaster chain Landslide runout landslide dam breach outburst flood integrated numerical simulation 


Funding information

This research is financially supported by the National Science Fund for Outstanding Young Scholars of China (Grant No. 41622206), the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (Grant No. 41521002), the Fund for International Cooperation (NSFC-RCUK_NERC), Resilience to Earthquake-Induced Landslide Risk in China (Grant No. 41661134010), and National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2017YFC1501002).


  1. Beguería S, Van Asch TWJ, Malet JP, Gröndahl S (2009) A GIS-based numerical model for simulating the kinematics of mud and debris flows over complex terrain. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1897–1909CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bout B, Jetten VG (2018) The validity of flow approximations when simulating catchment-integrated flash floods. J Hydrol 556:674–688CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bout B, Lombardo L, van Westen C and Jetten V (2018a) A new model for integrated multi-hazard modelling of flooding and mass movements in mountainous watersheds pp 9172Google Scholar
  4. Bout B, Lombardo L, van Westen CJ, Jetten VG (2018b) Integration of two-phase solid fluid equations in a catchment model for flashfloods, debris flows and shallow slope failures. Environ Model Softw 105:1–16. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Brunner GW (1995) HEC-RAS river analysis system. Hydraulic reference manual. Version 1.0. Hydrologic Engineering Center Davis CA,Google Scholar
  6. Brunner GW (2002) Hec-ras (river analysis system). ASCE, pp 3782-3787Google Scholar
  7. Cala M and Flisiak J (2001) Slope stability analysis with FLAC and limit equilibrium methods. FLAC and numerical modeling in geomechanics. Proceedings of the Second International FLAC SymposiumGoogle Scholar
  8. Carpignano A, Golia E, Di Mauro C, Bouchon S, Nordvik JP (2009) A methodological approach for the definition of multi-risk maps at regional level: first application. J Risk Res 12:513–534CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Casagli N, Ermini L (1999) Geomorphic analysis of landslide dams in the Northern Apennine. Trans Jpn Geomorphol 20:219–249Google Scholar
  10. Chai HJ, Liu HC, Zhang ZY (1995) The catalog of Chinese landslide dam events. J Geol Hazards Environ Preserv 6:1–9Google Scholar
  12. Chang DS, Zhang LM (2010) Simulation of the erosion process of landslide dams due to overtopping considering variations in soil erodibility along depth. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:933–946CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Dai FC, Lee CF, Deng JH, Tham LG (2005) The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China. Geomorphology 65:205–221CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Delaney KB, Evans SG (2015) The 2000 Yigong landslide (Tibetan Plateau), rockslide-dammed lake and outburst flood: review, remote sensing analysis, and process modelling. Geomorphology 246:377–393. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Eberhardt E (2003) Rock slope stability analysis - utilization of advanced numerical techniques. Earth and Ocean sciences at UBCGoogle Scholar
  16. Evans SG, Hermanns RL, Strom A, Scarascia-Mugnozza G (2011) Natural and artificial rockslide dams. Springer Science & Business MediaGoogle Scholar
  17. Fan X, Gorum T, van Westen CJ, Xu Q, Tang C, Huang R (2009) Distribution of large landslides and landslide dams triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, p 2863Google Scholar
  18. Fan X, Tang CX, van Westen CJ, Alkema D (2012) Simulating dam-breach flood scenarios of the Tangjiashan landslide dam induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:3031–3044. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Fan X, Scaringi G, Korup O, West AJ, van Westen CJ, Tanyas H, Hovius N, Hales TC, Jibson RW, Allstadt KE, Zhang L, Evans SG, Xu C, Li G, Pei X, Xu Q, Huang R (2019a) Earthquake-induced chains of geologic hazards: patterns, mechanisms, and impacts. Rev Geophys 0. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Fan X, Xu Q, Alonso-Rodriguez A, Siva Subramanian S, Li W, Zheng G, Dong X, Huang R (2019b) Successive landsliding and damming of the Jinsha River in eastern Tibet, China: prime investigation, early warning, and emergency response. Landslides 16:1003–1020. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Ferrer C (1999) Represamientos y rupturas de embalses naturales (lagunas de obstrución) como efectos cosísmicos: Algunos ejemplos en los Andes venezolanos. Revista Geográfica Venezolana 40:109–121Google Scholar
  22. Hermanns RL, Folguera A, Penna I, Fauqué L, Niedermann S (2011) Landslide dams in the Central Andes of Argentina (northern Patagonia and the Argentine northwest). Springer, Natural and artificial rockslide dams, pp 147–176Google Scholar
  23. Hoek, E., & Bray, J. D. (1981). Rock slope engineering. CRC PressGoogle Scholar
  24. Iverson RM, Ouyang C (2015) Entrainment of bed material by Earth-surface mass flows: review and reformulation of depth-integrated theory. Rev Geophys 53:27–58CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Korup O (2005) Geomorphic imprint of landslides on alpine river systems, southwest New Zealand. Earth Surf Process Landf 30:783–800CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Legros F (2002) The mobility of long-runout landslides. Eng Geol 63:301–331CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Liang G, Wang Z, Zhang G, Wu L (2019) Two huge landslides that took place in quick succession within a month at the same location of Jinsha River. Landslides 16:1059–1062. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Lorig L, Varona P (2000) Practical slope-stability analysis using finite-difference codes. Slope stability in surface mining:115–124Google Scholar
  29. Luna BQ, van Westen CJ, Jetten V, Cepeda J, Stumpf A, Malet JP and van Asch TWJ (2010) A preliminary compilation of calibrated rheological parameters used in dynamic simulations of landslide run-out. pp 255-260Google Scholar
  30. Mavrouli, O. C., Corominas Dulcet, J., & Wartman, J. (2009). Methodology to evaluate rock slope stability under seismic conditions at Solà de Santa Coloma. Andorra. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9(6),1763–1773.Google Scholar
  31. Ouimet WB, Whipple KX, Royden LH, Sun Z, Chen Z (2007) The influence of large landslides on river incision in a transient landscape: eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (Sichuan, China). Geol Soc Am Bull 119:1462–1476CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Ouyang C, He S, Xu Q, Luo Y, Zhang W (2013) A MacCormack-TVD finite difference method to simulate the mass flow in mountainous terrain with variable computational domain. Computers & Geosciences 52:1–10. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Ouyang C, He S, Xu Q (2014) MacCormack-TVD finite difference solution for dam break hydraulics over erodible sediment beds. J Hydraul Eng 141:06014026CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Ouyang C, He S, Tang C (2015) Numerical analysis of dynamics of debris flow over erodible beds in Wenchuan earthquake-induced area. Eng Geol 194:62–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Ouyang C, Zhou K, Xu Q, Yin J, Peng D, Wang D, Li W (2017) Dynamic analysis and numerical modeling of the 2015 catastrophic landslide of the construction waste landfill at Guangming, Shenzhen, China. Landslides 14:705–718CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Ouyang C, An H, Zhou S, Wang Z, Su P, Wang D, Cheng D, She J (2019) Insights from the failure and dynamic characteristics of two sequential landslides at Baige village along the Jinsha River, China. Landslides 16:1397–1414. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Peng S-H (2012) 1D and 2D numerical modeling for solving dam-break flow problems using finite volume method. J Appl MathGoogle Scholar
  38. Peng M, Zhang LM (2012a) Breaching parameters of landslide dams. Landslides 9:13–31. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Peng M, Zhang LM (2012b) Analysis of human risks due to dam break floods—part 2: application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure. Nat Hazards 64:1899–1923CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Peng M, Zhang LM, Chang DS, Shi ZM (2014) Engineering risk mitigation measures for the landslide dams induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Eng Geol 180:68–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Scaringi G, Fan X, Xu Q, Liu C, Ouyang C, Domènech G, Yang F, Dai L (2018) Some considerations on the use of numerical methods to simulate past landslides and possible new failures: the case of the recent Xinmo landslide (Sichuan, China). Landslides 15:1359–1375CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Shi ZM, Guan SG, Peng M, Zhang LM, Zhu Y, Cai QP (2015) Cascading breaching of the Tangjiashan landslide dam and two smaller downstream landslide dams. Eng Geol 193:445–458CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Shi Z-M, Zheng H-C, Yu S-B, Peng M, Jiang T (2018) Application of cfd-dem to investigate seepage characteristics of landslide dam materials. Comput Geotech 101:23–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Sijing W, Guohe L, Qiang Z, Chaoli LAN (2000) Engineering geological study of the active tectonic region for hydropower development on the Jinsha River, upstream of the Yangtze River. Acta Geol Sin-English Edition 74:353–361CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Strom A (2015) Natural river damming: climate-driven or seismically induced phenomena: basics for landslide and seismic hazard assessment. Engineering Geology for Society and Territory-Volume 2, Springer, pp 33-41Google Scholar
  46. Strom A, Abdrakhmatov K (2018) Rockslides and rock avalanches of Central Asia: distribution, morphology, and internal structure. ElsevierGoogle Scholar
  47. Swanson FJ, Oyagi N and Tominaga M (1986) Landslide dams in Japan. Landslide dams: processes, risk, and mitigation, ASCE, pp 131-145Google Scholar
  48. Tacconi Stefanelli C, Catani F, Casagli N (2015) Geomorphological investigations on landslide dams. Geoenvironmental Disasters 2:21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Tacconi Stefanelli C, Vilímek V, Emmer A, Catani F (2018) Morphological analysis and features of the landslide dams in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Landslides 15:507–521CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Wang B, Zhang T, Zhou Q, Wu C, Y-l C, Wu P (2015) A case study of the Tangjiashan landslide dam-break. J Hydrodyn 27:223–233CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Wang G, Furuya G, Zhang F, Doi I, Watanabe N, Wakai A, Marui H (2016) Layered internal structure and breaching risk assessment of the Higashi-Takezawa landslide dam in Niigata, Japan. Geomorphology 267:48–58CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Wang L, Wen M, Zhen F (2019) Researches on the Baige landslide at Jinshajiang river, Tibet, China. Chin J Geol Hazard Control 30Google Scholar
  53. Wolter A, Gischig V, Stead D, Clague JJ (2016) Investigation of geomorphic and seismic effects on the 1959 Madison Canyon, Montana, landslide using an integrated field, engineering geomorphology mapping, and numerical modelling approach. Rock Mech Rock Eng 49:2479–2501CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Yutao F, Shengxie X (2009) Chain mechanism and optimized control of collapses, landslides and debris flows. J Catastrophology 3Google Scholar
  55. Zhang L, Xiao T, He J, Chen C (2019a) Erosion-based analysis of breaching of Baige landslide dams on the Jinsha River, China, in 2018. Landslides. 16:1965–1979. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Zhang Z, He S, Liu W, Liang H, Yan S, Deng Y, Bai X, Chen Z (2019b) Source characteristics and dynamics of the October 2018 Baige landslide revealed by broadband seismograms. Landslides 16:777–785. CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Xuanmei Fan
    • 1
    Email author
  • Fan Yang
    • 1
    Email author
  • Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian
    • 1
  • Qiang Xu
    • 1
  • Zetao Feng
    • 1
  • Olga Mavrouli
    • 2
  • Ming Peng
    • 3
  • Chaojun Ouyang
    • 4
  • John D. Jansen
    • 1
    • 5
  • Runqiu Huang
    • 1
  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection (SKLGP)Chengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
  2. 2.Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)University of TwenteEnschedeThe Netherlands
  3. 3.Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Department of Geotechnical EngineeringTongji UniversityShanghaiChina
  4. 4.Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Processes & Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment (IMHE)Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)ChengduChina
  5. 5.GFÚ Institute of GeophysicsCzech Academy of SciencesPragueCzech Republic

Personalised recommendations