Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Integrating spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities for medium-scale landslide risk analysis in Darjeeling Himalayas, India

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Landslides Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Landslide risk assessment is based on spatially integrating landslide hazard with exposed elements-at-risk to determine their vulnerability and to express the expected direct and indirect losses. There are three components that are relevant for expressing landslide hazard: spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities. At a medium-scale analysis, this is often done by first deriving a landslide susceptibility map, and to determine the three types of probabilities on the basis of landslide inventories linked to particular triggering events. The determination of spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities depend mainly on the availability of sufficiently complete historical records of past landslides, which in general are rare in most countries (e.g., India, etc.). In this paper, we presented an approach to use available historical information on landslide inventories for landslide hazard and risk analysis on a medium scale (1:25,000) in a perennially typical data-scarce environment in Darjeeling Himalayas (India). We demonstrate how the incompleteness in the resulting landslide database influences the various components in the calculation of specific risk of elements-at-risk (e.g., buildings, population, roads, etc.). We incorporate the uncertainties involved in the risk estimation and illustrate the range of expected losses in the form of maximum and minimum loss curves. The study demonstrates that even in data-scarce environments, quantitative landslide risk assessment is a viable option, as long as the uncertainties involved are expressed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aleotti P, Chowdhury R (1999) Landslide hazard assessment: summary review and new perspectives. Bull Eng Geol Environ 58:21–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Altman E (1968) Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. J Finance 23(4):189–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anbalagan R, Singh B (1996) Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of mountainous terrains—a case study from Kumaun Himalaya, India. Eng Geol 43(4):237–246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhattacharya A, Mishra P, Ghoshal TB, Bahuguna H, Ghatak T (1998) A geotechnical appraisal of landslides on 7th July, 1998 along National Highway No. 55. In: GSI (ed) Progress report (F.S. 1998–99)

  • Binnie SA, Phillips WM, Summerfield MA, Fifield LK (2007) Tectonic uplift, threshold hillslopes and denudation rates in developing mountain range. Geology 35:743–746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BIS (2002) Criteria for earthquake resistant design of structures: general provisions and buildings, Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) IS 1893:2002 (Part-1)

  • Burbank DW, Leland J, Fielding E, Anderson RS, Brozovic N, Reid MR, Duncan C (1996) Bedrock incision, rock uplift and threshold hillslopes in the northwestern Himalayas. Nature 379:505–510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caine N, Mool PK (1982) Landslides in the Kolpu Khola drainage, Middle Mountains, Nepal. Mt Res Dev 2(2):157–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Lee CF (2003) A dynamic model for rainfall-induced landslides on natural slopes. Geomorphology 51(4):269–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdhury R, Flentje P (2002) Uncertainties in rainfall-induced landslide hazard. Q J Eng Geol Hydrogeol 35:61–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crozier MJ (1999) Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslide: a test of antecedent water status model. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 24:825–833

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cruden DM (1997) Estimating the risk from landslides using historical data. In: Cruden D, Fell R (eds) Landslide risk assessment. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 177–184

    Google Scholar 

  • Dahal RK, Hasegawa S (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100(3–4):429–443

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dutta KK (1966)Landslips in Darjeeling and neighbouring hill-slopes in June, 1950. In: GSI (ed) Landslides and Hillside stability in the Eastern Himalayas, vol 15. Geological Survey of India Bulletin Series B Kolkata, pp 7–30

  • Einstein HH (1997) Landslide risk–systematic approaches to assessment and management. In: Cruden D, Fell R (eds) Landslide risk assessment. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 25–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Fell R, Hartford D (1997) Landslide risk management. In: Cruden D, Fell R (eds) Landslide risk assessment. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 51–109

    Google Scholar 

  • Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, Cascini L, Leroi E, Savage WZ (2008) Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Eng Geol 102(3–4):85–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh S, Carranza EJM (2010) Spatial analysis of mutual fault/fracture and slope controls on rocksliding in Darjeeling Himalaya, India. Geomorphology 122(1–2):1–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh S, Carranza EJM, van Westen CJ, Jetten VG, Bhattacharya DN (2011a) Selecting and weighting of spatial predictors for empirical modeling of landslide susceptibility in Darjeeling Himalaya (India). Geomorphology. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.04.019

  • Ghosh S, van Westen CJ, Carranza EJM, Jetten VG, Cardinali M, Rossi M, Guzzetti F (2011b) Generating event-based landslide maps in a data-scarce Himalayan environment for estimating temporal and magnitude probabilities. Engineering Geol. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2011.03.016

  • Guzzetti F (2002) Landslide hazard assessment and risk evaluation: overview, limits and prospective. In: 3rd MITCH workshop floods, droughts and landslides: who plans, who pays, Potsdam, Germany, 24–26 November 2002

  • Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31(1–4):181–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, Galli M, Ardizzone F (2005) Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale. Geomorphology 72(1–4):272–299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hungr O, McDougall S (2009) Two numerical models for landslide dynamic analysis. Comput Geosci 35(5):978–992

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaiswal P, van Westen CJ (2009) Estimating temporal probability for landslide initiation along transportation routes based on rainfall thresholds. Geomorphology 112(1–2):96–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanungo D, Arora M, Gupta R, Sarkar S (2008) Landslide risk assessment using concepts of danger pixels and fuzzy set theory in Darjeeling Himalayas. Landslides 5(4):407–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuriakose SL, van Beek LPH, van Westen CJ (2009) Parameterizing a physically based shallow landslide model in a data poor region. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 34(6):867–881. doi:10.1002/esp.1794

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee EM, Jones DKC (2004) Landslide risk assessment, 1st edn. ThomasTelford, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Malamud BD, Turcotte DL, Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P (2004) Landslide inventories and their statistical properties. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 29(6):687–711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Okura Y, Kitahara H, Sammori T, Kawanami A (2000) The effects of rockfall volume on runout distance. Eng Geol 58(2):109–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Okura Y, Kitahara H, Kawanami A, Kurokawa U (2003) Topography and volume effects on travel distance of surface failure. Eng Geol 67(3–4):243–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paul C, Sarkar NK (2003) A note on the recent landslide damage assessment along different road stretches in Darjeeling Hills, West Bengal (as an aftermath of July 2003 deluge). In: GSI (ed) Progress report (F.S. 2003–04)

  • Petersen MD, Dewey J, Hartzell S, Mueller C, Harmsen S, Frankel A, Rukstales K (2004a) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula. Tectonophysics 390(1–4):141–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petersen MD, Rastogi BK, Schweig ES, Harmsen SC, Gomberg JS (2004b) Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for the northwestern portion of the state of Gujarat, India. Tectonophysics 390(1–4):105–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petley D, Hearn G, Hart A, Rosser N, Dunning S, Oven K, Mitchell W (2007) Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal. Nat Hazard 43(1):23–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rasmussen HH, Pitt EA, Ibels LS, McNeil DR (1985) Prediction of outcome in acute renal failure by discriminant analysis of clinical variables. Arch Intern Med 145(11):2015–2018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rastogi BK (2004) Damage due to the Mw 7.7 Kutch, India earthquake of 2001. Tectonophysics 390(1–4):85–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rautela P, Lakhera RC (2000) Landslide risk analysis between Giri and Tons Rivers in Himachal Himalaya (India). Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinform 2(3–4):153–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rossi M, Witt A, Guzzetti F, Malamud BD, Peruccacci S (2010) Analysis of historical landslide time series in the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 35(10):1123–1137. doi:10.1002/esp.1858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salvati P, Bianchi C, Rossi M, Guzzetti F (2010) Societal landslide and flood risk in Italy. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10(3):465–483. doi:10.5194/nhess-10-465-2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Selby MJ (1988) Landforms and denudation of the High Himalayas of Nepal: results of continental collision. J Geomorphol, New Folge 69: 133–152, Supplementebande

    Google Scholar 

  • Shedlock KM, Giardini D, Grunthal G, Zhang P (2000) The GSHAP global seismic hazard map. Seismol Res Lett 71(6):679–686. doi:10.1785/gssrl.71.6.679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soja R, Starkel L (2007) Extreme rainfalls in Eastern Himalaya and southern slope of Meghalaya Plateau and their geomorphologic impacts. Geomorphology 84(3–4):170–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Starkel L (2004) Extreme rainfall at 5–7 July 1998 in the Darjeeling Himalaya. In: Sing S, Sharma HS, De SK (eds) Geomorphology and environment. ABC Publications, Kolkata, pp 26–31

    Google Scholar 

  • Starkel L, Basu S (2000) Rains, landslides and floods in the Darjeeling Himalaya. Indian National Science Academy, New Delhi

    Google Scholar 

  • van Westen CJ, van Asch TWJ, Soeters R (2006) Landslide hazard and risk zonation—why is it still so difficult? Bull Eng Geol Environ 65(5):167–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Varnes DJ (1984) Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice. UNESCO, Darantiere

    Google Scholar 

  • Zêzere JL, Garcia RAC, Oliveira SC, Reis E (2008) Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). Geomorphology 94(3–4):467–495

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The work presented here is part of the PhD research of Saibal Ghosh within the joint research project of the Geological Survey of India (GSI), National Remote Sensing Centre (India), ITC (The Netherlands). We are grateful to the local administrative authority of Kurseong Sub-division, Darjeeling district, Government of West Bengal, India for providing us the necessary logistics and data at field. This research was carried out in the framework of the United Nations University–ITC School for Disaster Geo-Information Management (www.itc.nl/unu/dgim/).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Engineering Geology Division, Geological Survey of India, Eastern Region, Kolkata, India

    Saibal Ghosh

  2. Department of Earth System Analysis, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Saibal Ghosh, Cees J. van Westen, Emmanuel John M. Carranza & Victor G. Jetten

Authors
  1. Saibal Ghosh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Cees J. van Westen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Emmanuel John M. Carranza
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Victor G. Jetten
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Saibal Ghosh.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Ghosh, S., van Westen, C.J., Carranza, E.J.M. et al. Integrating spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities for medium-scale landslide risk analysis in Darjeeling Himalayas, India. Landslides 9, 371–384 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-011-0304-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-011-0304-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation