Estimating the potential effects of climate change on rice production in Thailand

  • Nirote Sinnarong
  • Chi-Chung ChenEmail author
  • Bruce McCarl
  • Bao-Linh Tran


This study estimates the potential effects of climate change on rice production in Thailand based on historical data from 1989 to 2009. An econometric panel data model is applied to examine the impact of the changing climatic conditions on mean and variability of rice yields. The empirical estimation results show that a rise in temperature would lead to a reduction in mean rice production and an increase in production variance. On the other hand, increasing precipitation is found to have region-varying effects on rice production. Under projections of future climate change, the simulation results reveal that the substantial change in mean and variability of rice yields arises as a consequence of fluctuation of temperature and precipitation. For instance, mean rice yield would be decreased by 4.56–33.77% and the rice production variability would be increased by 3.87–15.70% in response to different scenarios over the course of the century. Therefore, it is necessary to take immediate adaptive actions appropriately to mitigate the decrease in rice production.


Climate change Rice production Thailand Panel data model 


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Copyright information

© The International Society of Paddy and Water Environment Engineering 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Nirote Sinnarong
    • 1
  • Chi-Chung Chen
    • 2
    Email author
  • Bruce McCarl
    • 3
  • Bao-Linh Tran
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsMaejo University-Phrae CampusPhraeThailand
  2. 2.Department of Applied EconomicsNational Chung Hsing UniversityTaichungTaiwan
  3. 3.Department of Agricultural EconomicsTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA

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