Short-term daily forecasting of crop evapotranspiration of rice using public weather forecasts

  • Dan Li
  • Junying Chen
  • Yufeng Luo
  • Fangping Liu
  • Hongying Luo
  • Hengwang Xie
  • Yuanlai Cui
Article

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of daily crop evapotranspiration (ET c ) are essential for real-time irrigation management and water resource allocation. This paper presents a method for the short-term forecasting of ET c using a single-crop coefficient approach and public weather forecasts. Temperature forecasts with a 7-day lead time in 2013–2015 were retrieved and entered into a calibrated Hargreaves–Samani model to compute daily reference evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasts, while crop coefficient (K c ) empirical values were estimated from both observed ET c value and calculated ET0 values using the Penman–Monteith equation for the period of 2010–2012. Daily ET c forecasts of irrigated double-cropping rice were determined for three growing seasons during the period of 2013–2015 and were compared with ET c values measured by the weighing lysimeters at the Jiangxi experimental irrigation station in southeastern China. During the early rice season, the average mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square-error (RMSE) values of ET c forecasts ranged from 0.95 to 1.06 mm day−1 and from 1.18 to 1.31 mm day−1, respectively, and the average correlation coefficient (R) ranged from 0.39 to 0.54; for late rice, the average MAE and RMSE values ranged from 1.01 to 1.09 mm day−1 and from 1.32 to 1.40 mm day−1, respectively, and the average R value ranged from 0.54 to 0.58. There could be three factors responsible for errors in ET c forecasts, including temperature forecast errors, K c value errors and neglected meteorological variables in the HS model, including wind speed and relative humidity. In addition, ET c was more sensitive to changes in temperature than K c . The overall results indicated that it is appropriate to forecast ET c with the proposed model for real-time irrigation management and water resource allocation.

Keywords

Crop evapotranspiration Irrigation forecasts Rice Public weather forecasts Crop coefficient 

List of symbols

C

Empirical coefficient of Hargreaves–Samani equation

ea

Actual vapor pressure

es

Vapor pressure at saturation

E

Empirical exponent of Hargreaves–Samani equation

ET

Evapotranspiration

ETc

Crop evapotranspiration

ETc,for

ET c forecast value

ETc,obs

Observed ET c value

ET0

Reference evapotranspiration

ET0,for

ET0 forecast value

ET0,HS

ET0 calculated by Hargreaves–Samani equation

ET0,PM

ET0 calculated by Penman–Monteith equation

G

Soil heat flux density

Kc

Crop coefficient

Kc,act

Actual K c value

Kc,emp

Empirical K c value

Ra

Extraterrestrial radiation

Rn

Net radiation

T

Air temperature at a height of 2 m

Tmax

Maximum air temperature

Tmin

Minimum air temperature

u2

Wind speed at a height of 2 m

Δ

Slop of vapor pressure curve

γ

Psychrometric constant

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC0403206) and Jiangxi Provincial Department of Science and Technology under Key Research & Development (R&D) Plan (20171ACH80018). The observed meteorological data obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn) and weather forecast data from Weather China (http://www.weather.com.cn) are gratefully acknowledged. The comments made by two anonymous reviewers are also highly appreciated.

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Copyright information

© The International Society of Paddy and Water Environment Engineering and Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Dan Li
    • 1
  • Junying Chen
    • 2
  • Yufeng Luo
    • 1
    • 4
  • Fangping Liu
    • 3
  • Hongying Luo
    • 4
  • Hengwang Xie
    • 3
  • Yuanlai Cui
    • 1
  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering ScienceWuhan UniversityWuhanChina
  2. 2.College of Water Resources and Architectural EngineeringNorthwest A&F UniversityYanglingChina
  3. 3.Jiangxi Central Irrigation Experiment StationNanchangChina
  4. 4.School of Water Resources and Civil EngineeringTibet Agricultural and Animal Husbandry CollegeNyingchiChina

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