Journal of Forest Research

, Volume 19, Issue 1, pp 174–183 | Cite as

Does future climate change facilitate expansion of evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the human-disturbed landscape of the Korean Peninsula? Implication for monitoring design of the impact assessment

  • Jong-Hak Yun
  • Katsuhiro Nakao
  • Ikutaro Tsuyama
  • Motoki Higa
  • Tetsuya Matsui
  • Chan-Ho Park
  • Byoung-Yoon Lee
  • Nobuyuki Tanaka
Original Article

Abstract

To quantitatively assess future change of evergreen broad-leaved tree species’ distributions in human-disturbed landscapes of the Korean Peninsula under climate change, potential habitats (PHs) were projected for four important evergreen broad-leaved tree species (Quercus acuta, Castanopsis sieboldii, Machilus thunbergii, and Neolitsea sericea) by species distribution models (SDMs). The distribution data (presence/absence) of the target species in Korea and Japan were used as response variables for SDMs, and climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Three general circulation models under A2 emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the years 2070–2099. Potential habitats masked by land-use data (PHLUs) were projected to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities. Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for all the target species. The current PHs were decreased to 21–35 % by the anthropogenic activities. Future PHLUs for all the target species were projected to increase by 2.0–18.5 times of current PHLUs. These results suggest that all the target species are applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula, even if anthropogenic effects are incorporated. Variation of the increasing rate was caused by the differences in the response to temperature changes. M. thunbergii responded sensitively to the increase of minimum temperature of coldest month and had a largest increase in PHLUs under future climate. Therefore, M. thunbergii is considered to be most appropriate species for monitoring the changes of horizontal distributions above all focal evergreen broad-leaved tree species.

Keywords

Anthropogenic activities Plant indicators Potential habitat Species distribution model 

Abbreviations

WI

Warmth index

TMC

Minimum temperature of the coldest month

PRS

Summer precipitation

PRW

Winter precipitation

KAVeR

Korean Atlas of Vegetation Records

PRDB

Phytosociological Relevé Database

PHs

Potential habitats

PHLUs

Potential habitats masked by land use

NHs

Non-habitats

NHLUs

Non-habitats masked by land use

Supplementary material

10310_2013_401_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (875 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 875 kb)

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Copyright information

© The Japanese Forest Society and Springer Japan 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jong-Hak Yun
    • 1
  • Katsuhiro Nakao
    • 2
  • Ikutaro Tsuyama
    • 2
  • Motoki Higa
    • 2
  • Tetsuya Matsui
    • 3
  • Chan-Ho Park
    • 1
  • Byoung-Yoon Lee
    • 1
  • Nobuyuki Tanaka
    • 2
  1. 1.Plant Resources DivisionNational Institute of Biological ResourcesIncheonKorea
  2. 2.Department of Plant EcologyForestry and Forest Products Research InstituteTsukubaJapan
  3. 3.Hokkaido Research StationForestry and Forest Products Research InstituteSapporoJapan

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