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Climate change impact on Caspian Sea wave conditions in the Noshahr Port

  • Samaneh Lesani
  • Mohammad Hossein NiksokhanEmail author
Article

Abstract

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth’s temperature and consequently have led to changes in wind and wave regimes. The main effects of climate change on oceans are warming of the ocean water, melting of ice, acidification of ocean water, and change in the ocean currents. The main effects of climate change on coastal regions are change in the coast hydrodynamics, sea level rise, change in wave height, coastal erosion, coastal structure damage, food shortage, and storms. Due to the importance of waves in the coastal zone and its effect on erosion and sedimentation, it is necessary to study wave changes. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave specifications was evaluated in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in Noshahr Port. To simulate wave parameters, the third generation spectral Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model was used. Wave modeling was carried out using the SWAN numerical model for two 30-yearly periods, including the control period (1984 to 2014) and the future period (2051 to 2080). For wave modeling in the control period, the European Center for Average Weather Forecast wind field was used, and for the future period, a downscaled wind field from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment projection, which was sponsored by World Climate Research Programme, based on the most recent emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, was used. The model results were calibrated and verified with buoy-recorded data. The effect of the climate change on the wave parameters was evaluated by studying the differences between the patterns in three scenarios and the control period. Results showed that the 30-year maximum significant wave height will increase because of climate change, and the wave direction will not change. In addition, the intensity of storms will increase in the future.

Keywords

climate change numerical modeling Caspian Sea SWAN model CORDEX Noshahr Port 

Nomenclature

BCs

Boundary Conditions

CEM

Coastal Engineering Manual

CMIP5

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

CORDEX

COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment

ECMWF

European Center for Average Weather Forecast

ENP

Eastern North Pacific

ENSEMBLES

ENSEMBLE-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts

EURO-CORDEX

Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment

GCM

General circulation models

GFS

Global Forecast System

GHG

Greenhouse Gas

Hs

Wave height

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ISWM

Iranian Seas Wave Modeling

JONSWAP

Joint North Sea Wave Project

NARCCAP

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

NGDC

National Geophysical Data Center

NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States

R

Correlation Coefficient

PRUDENCE

Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate Change risks and Effects

RCPs

Representative Concentration Pathways

RegCM

Regional Climate Model

RMSE

Root Mean Square Error

SI

Scatter Index

SPM

Shore Protection Manual

SRES

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

SWAN

Simulating WAves Nearshore

Ts

Significant wave period

WEC

Wave Energy Converter

WCRP

World Climate Research Programme

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Environment, College of EngineeringUniversity of TehranTehranIran

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