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Ocean Dynamics

, Volume 68, Issue 2, pp 255–272 | Cite as

Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea

The role of the sea state, forcing frequency and spatial forcing resolution
  • Nina RidderEmail author
  • Hylke de Vries
  • Sybren Drijfhout
  • Henk van den Brink
  • Erik van Meijgaard
  • Hans de Vries
Article

Abstract

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter (α C h = 0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.

Keywords

Storm surge Modelling Coastal water level Extreme events Wind stress North Sea 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Rijkswaterstaat for providing the observational data and three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

Funding information

This study was funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) as part of the project “Impacted by Coincident Weather Extremes” (ICOWEX; grant number 869.15.017).

Supplementary material

10236_2018_1133_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (5.9 mb)
(PDF 5.89 MB)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutMinisterie van Infrastructuur en MilieuDe BiltThe Netherlands

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