Ocean Dynamics

, Volume 63, Issue 11–12, pp 1213–1232 | Cite as

Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges

Article

Abstract

The response/transfer function of a coastal site to a remote open-ocean point is introduced, with the intent to directly convert open-ocean measurements into the wave time history at the site. We show that the tsunami wave at the site can be predicted as the wave is measured in the open ocean as far as 1,000+ km away from the site, with a straightforward computation which can be performed almost instantaneously. The suggested formalism is demonstrated for the purpose of tsunami forecasting in Poverty Bay, in the Gisborne region of New Zealand. Directional sensitivity of the site response due to different conditions for the excitation of the shelf and the bay’s normal modes is investigated and used to explain tsunami observations. The suggested response function formalism is validated with available records of the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Gisborne tide gauge and at the nearby deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART) station 54401. The suggested technique is also demonstrated by hindcasting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami at Monterey Bay, CA, using an offshore record of each tsunami at DART station 46411.

Keywords

Tsunamis Forecast Seiche Normal mode Response function Poverty Bay 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the New Zealand GeoNet project and its sponsors EQC, GNS Science, and LINZ for providing Poverty Bay gauge records; NOAA/NDBC for providing DART records; NOAA/NOS for providing Monterey gauge records; and Paroscientific, Inc. and Quartz Seismic Sensors, Inc. for providing MARS bottom pressure record. William Power acknowledges support for this work from the New Zealand Natural Hazards Platform.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.GNS ScienceLower HuttNew Zealand
  2. 2.University of Washington, JISAOSeattleUSA

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