Predictability of currents on a mesotidal estuary (Ria de Vigo, NW Iberia)
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In this contribution, the implementation, validation and sensitivity analysis of an operational forecasting system (three-dimensional hydrostatic model) in the Ría de Vigo is presented. A set of sensitivity tests for different atmospheric and hydrodynamic typical periods was performed. The goal is to determine the relative importance of forcing mechanisms in order to evaluate the source of errors in predictions. Previously, validations for three periods of about 15 days were compared with measured data. Sea-level evolution reveals low errors and correlation values close to 1. Surface velocities were compared with high-frequency radar and horizontal Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler data, showing acceptable results on radar area, where tidal and wind circulation patterns are well reproduced by the model. Conductivity, temperature, and depth profiles were used to validate simulated temperature and salinity. While modelled temperature profiles show good agreement with measured profiles, eventual errors are detected on salinity. The sensitivity analysis took three variables into account: sea level, currents at open boundary conditions, and winds (two different configurations). The results show that the most important source of errors on simulated surface currents is wind. Errors on open boundary conditions seem to be limited on the outermost part of the Ría. Although the results presented mainly focus on the Ría de Vigo, the method and conclusions may be applied to other mesotidal estuaries. Moreover, this work will allow a more effective operational system focused on coastal management to be performed.
Keywords3D Hydrodynamic model Predictability of currents Estuary Sensitivity analysis Ría de Vigo
This work was supported by a FPI-UPC pre-doctoral fellowship from European project FIELD_AC (FP7-SPACE-2009-1-242284 FIELD_AC). We would like to thank the Spanish National Ports and Harbours Authority (Puertos del Estado, www.puertos.es), as well as other public bodies and companies like MeteoGalicia, Observatorio Oceanografico RAIA (www.observatorioraia.org), Intecmar, University of Vigo, and the Port Authority of Vigo (www.apvigo.com) for the information provided and their commitment to the study. We thank also the anonymous referees for their valuable comments on the manuscript.
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