Developing an immigration policy for Germany on the basis of a nonparametric labor market classification
Based on a nonparametrically estimated model of labor market classifications, this paper makes suggestions for immigration policy using data from West Germany of the 1990s. It is demonstrated that nonparametric regression is feasible in higher dimensions with only a few thousand observations. In sum, labor markets are able to absorb immigrants are characterized by above average age and by professional occupations. On the other hand, labor markets for young workers in service occupations exhibit rising unemployment due to wage rigidities and are therefore not recommended for immigration. This raises a potential conflict between financing Germany’s ailing social security system and protecting decreasing or rigid labor markets by immigration control.