Population Ecology

, Volume 42, Issue 1, pp 11–17 | Cite as

Risk of extinction and categories of endangerment: perspectives from long-lived reptiles

  • G. J. W. Webb
  • E. Carrillo C.


The IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals is an important conservation tool, but the accuracy of predictions about risks of global extinction within 10 years or three generations is difficult to test objectively. In this study, we compare IUCN predictions with the results of attempts to derive realistic scenarios that could lead to the global extinction of six species of long-lived reptiles. For three species, the IUCN predictions matched real events reasonably well but still overestimated risks of global extinction. For the other species, the predictions did not match real events. Reasons why disparities occur are discussed.

Key words IUCN criteria Conservation Status Prediction Accuracy Threat 


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Copyright information

© The Society of Population Ecology and Springer-Verlag Tokyo 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. J. W. Webb
    • 1
  • E. Carrillo C.
    • 2
  1. 1.Wildlife Management International, P.O. Box 530, Sanderson NT 0812, Australia Tel. +61-8-8922-4503; Fax +61-8-8947-0678 e-mail:
  2. 2.Centro de Investigaciones Pesqueras, Ministerio de Industria Pesquera, Barlovento, Santa Fe, Habana, CubaCU

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