Population Ecology

, Volume 55, Issue 2, pp 377–401 | Cite as

Selection-delayed population dynamics in baleen whales and beyond

  • Lars Witting
Original article


While it is known that population cycles are driven by delayed density-dependent feedbacks, the search for a common feedback mechanism in natural populations with cyclic dynamics has remained unresolved for almost a century. To identify the existence and cause of delayed feedbacks I apply six age- and sex-structured population dynamics models to seven species of baleen whales (suborder Mysticeti) that were heavily depleted by past commercial whaling. The six models include a predator–prey model with killer whale (Orcinus orca) as the predator, and five singe-species models based on (1) exponential growth, (2) density-regulated growth, (3) density-regulated growth with depensation, (4) delayed density-regulated growth and (5) selection-delayed dynamics. The latter model has a density-regulated growth rate that is accelerated and decelerated by the intra-specific natural selection that arises from the density-dependent competitive interactions between the individuals in the population. Essential parameters are estimated by a Bayesian statistical framework, and it is shown that baleen whales have a delayed recovery relative to density-regulated growth. The time-lag is not explained by depensation, or by interactions with prey or predators. It is instead resolved by a selection-delayed acceleration of the intrinsic growth rate. The results are discussed in relation to the literature on cyclic dynamics, and it is noted (1) that selection-delayed dynamics is both theoretically and empirically sufficient for cyclic population dynamics, (2) that it is widespread in natural populations owing to the widespread occurrence of otherwise unexplained phenotypic cycles in populations with cyclic dynamics, and (3) that there is a lack of empirical evidence showing that predator–prey interactions is a sufficient cause for the cyclic dynamics of natural populations. The conclusion stresses the importance of intra-specific delays in cyclic dynamics, and suggests that it is the acceleration of the growth rate, and not the growth rate itself, that is determined by the density-dependent environment.


Density regulation Depensation Eco-evolutionary dynamics Inertial dynamics Population cycles Predator–prey 



I am grateful to those that establish baleen whale abundance estimates and catch histories; especially to C. Allison, T. Smith, and R. Reeves for providing catch histories. A. Punt and anonymous reviewers are thanked for comments that improved the paper.

Supplementary material

10144_2013_370_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (147 kb)
Supplementary Material 1 PDF (147 KB)


  1. Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Auto Control 19:716-723CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Allen KR (1980) Conservation and management of whales. Univ Wash Press, SeattleGoogle Scholar
  3. Alter SE, Newsome SD, Palumbi SR (2012) Pre-whaling genetic diversity and population ecology in eastern pacific gray whales: insights from ancient dna and stable isotopes. PLOS One 7:e35039PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Anderson WW (1971) Genetic equilibrium and population growth under density-regulated selection. Am Nat 105:489–498CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Arrigoni M, Manfredi P, Panigada S, Bramanti L, Santangelo G (2011) Life-history tables of the mediterranean fin whale from stranding data. Mar Ecol 32:1–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Baker CS, Clapham PJ (2004) Modelling the past and future of whales and whaling. Trends Ecol Evol 19:365–371CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bannister JL (2008) Population trend in right whales off southern Australia 1993–2007. IWC/SC/60/BRG14, available from the International Whaling CommissionGoogle Scholar
  8. Barlow J, Clapham PJ (1997) A new birth interval approach to estimating demographic parameters of humpback whales. Ecology 78:535–546CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Beckerman A, Benton TG, Ranta E, Kaitala V, Lundberg P (2002) Population dynamic consequences of delayed life-history effects. Trends Ecol Evol 17:263–269CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Berryman AA (1996) What causes population cycles of forest lepidoptera? Trends Ecol Evol 11:28–32PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Best PB, Brandão A, Butterworth DS (2001) Demographic parameters of southern right whales off South Africa. J Cetacean Res Manage 2(Sp Issue):161–169Google Scholar
  12. Bolnick DI (2004) Can intraspecific competition drive disruptive selection? An experimental test in natural populations of sticklebacks. Evolution 58:608–618PubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. Boonstra R, Hochachka WM (1997) Maternal effects and additive genetic inheritance in the collared lemming Dicrostonyx groenlandicus. Evol Ecol 11:169–182CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Boonstra R, Krebs CJ (1979) Viability of large- and small-sized adults in fluctuating vole populations. Ecology 60:567–573CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Boonstra R, Singleton GR (1993) Population declines in the snowshoe hare and the role of stress. Gen Comp Endocrinol 91:126–143PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Branch TA (2007) Abundance of Antarctic blue whales south of 60o from three complete circumpolar sets of surveys. J Cetacean Res Manage 9:253–262Google Scholar
  17. Brandon J, Wade PR (2006) Assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales using Bayesian model averaging. J Cetacean Res Manage 8:225–239Google Scholar
  18. Bromaghin JF, Nielson RM, Hard JJ (2011) A model of chinook salmon population dynamics incorporating size-selective exploitation and inheritance of polygenic correlated traits. Nat Res Model 24:1–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Browman HI (2000) Theme section on ‘evolution’ of fisheries science. MEPS 208:299–313CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Budylenko GA (1981) Distribution and some aspects of the biology of killer whales in the South Atlantic. Rep Int Whal Commn 31:523–525Google Scholar
  21. Butterworth DS, Korrübel JL, Punt AE (2002) What is needed to make a simple density-dependent response population model consistent with data for the eastern North Pacific gray whales? J Cetacean Res Manage 4:63–67Google Scholar
  22. Calsbeek R, Cox RM (2010) Experimentically assessing the relative importance of predation and competition as agents of selection. Nature 465:613–616PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Carlson SM, Edeline E, Vøllestad AL, Haugen TO, Winfield IJ, Fletcher JM, Ben James J, Stenseth NC (2007) Four decades of opposing natural and human-induced artificial selection acting on Windermere pike (Esox lucius). Ecol Lett 10:512–521PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Charlesworth B (1994) Evolution in age-structured populations, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Chitty D (1952) Mortality among voles (Microtus agrestis) at Lake Vyrnwy, Montgomeryshire in 1936–9. Phil Trans R Soc Lond 236:505–552CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Chitty D (1960) Population processes in the voles and their relevance to general theory. Can J Zool 38:99–113CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Clarke B (1972) Density-dependent selection. Am Nat 106:1–13CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Coltman DW, O’donoghue P, Jorgenson JT, Hogg JT, Strobeck C, Festa-Bianchet M (2003) Undesirable evolutionary consequences of trophy hunting. Nature 426:655–658PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Cooke JG, Rowntree VJ, Payne R (2001) Estimates of demographic parameters for southern right whales (Eubalaene australis) observed off Peninsula Valdes, Argentina. J Cetacean Res Manage 2(Sp Issue):125–132Google Scholar
  30. De la Mare WK (1986) Fitting population models to time series of abundance data. Rep Int Whal Commn 36:399–418Google Scholar
  31. Edeline E, Carlson SM, Stige LC, Winfield IJ, Fletcher JM, James JB, Haugen TO, Vøllestad LA, Stenseth NC (2007) Trait changes in a harvested population are driven by a dynamic tug-of-war between natural and harvest selection. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:15799–15804PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Einum S, Robertsen G, Fleming IA (2008) Adaptive landscapes and density-dependent selection in declining salmonid populations: going beyond numerical responses to human disturbance. Evol Appl 1:239–251CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Ergon T, Lambin X, Stenseth NC (2001) Life-history traits of voles in a fluctuating population respond to the immediate environment. Nature 411:1043–1045PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Fisher RA (1930) The genetical theory of natural selection. Clarendon, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  35. Ford JKB, Reeves RR (2008) Fight or flight: antipredator strategies of baleen whales. Mamm Rev 38:50–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Ford JKB, Ellis GM, Matkin DR, Balcomb KC, Briggs D, Morton AB (2005) Killer whale attacks on minke whales: prey capture and antipredator tactics. Mar Mamm Sci 21:603–618CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Ford JKB, Ellis GM, Olesiuk PF, Balcomb KC (2010) Linking killer whale survival and prey abundance: food limitation in the oceans. Biol Lett 6:139–142PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Fujiwara M, Caswell H (2001) Demography of the endangered North Atlantic right whale. Nature 414:537–541PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Ginzburg L, Colyvan M (2004) Ecological orbits. How planets move and populations grow. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  40. Ginzburg LR (1972) The analogies of the “free motion” and “force” concept in population theory In: Ratnar VA (ed) Studies on theoretical genetics. Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Novosibirsk, pp 65–85 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  41. Ginzburg LR (1998) Inertial growth. Population dynamics based on maternal effects. In: Mousseau TA, Fox CW (eds) Maternal effects as adaptations. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 42–53Google Scholar
  42. Ginzburg LR, Taneyhill DE (1994) Population cycles of forest lepidoptera: a maternal effect hypothesis. J Anim Ecol 63:79–92CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Givens GH, Zeh JE, Raftery AE (1995) Assessment of the Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales using the BALEEN II model in a Bayesian synthesis framework. Rep Int Whal Commn 45:345–364Google Scholar
  44. Goss-Custard JD, West AD, Stillman RA, Durell SEALV, Caldow RWG, McGrorty S, Nagarajan R (2001) Density-dependent starvation in a vertebrate without significant depletion. J Anim Ecol 70:955–965CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Graham IM, Lambin X (2002) The impact of weasel predation on cyclic field-vole survival: the specialist predator hypothesis contradicted. J Anim Ecol 71:946–956CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Hairston NGJ, Ellner SP, Geber MA, Yoshida T, Fox JA (2005) Rapid evolution and the convergence of ecological and evolutionary time. Ecol Lett 8:1114–1127CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Hansen BB, Grøtan V, Aanes R, Sæther BE, Stien A, Fuglei E, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG, Pedersen AØ (2013) Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community in the high arctic. Science 339:313–315PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Hanski I, Hansson L, Henttonen H (1991) Specialist predators, generalist predators, and the microtine rodent cycle. J Anim Ecol 60:353–367CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Hansson L (1969) Spring populations of small mammals in central Swedish Lapland in 1964–1968. Oikos 20:431–450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Haugen TO, Vøllestad LA (2001) A century of life-history evolution in grayling. Genetica 112:475–491PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Henttonen H, Oksanen T, Jortikka A, Haukisalmi V (1987) How much do weasels shape microtine cycles in the northern Fennoscandian taiga? Oikos 50:366–370CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Herczeg G, Gonda A, Merila J (2009) Evolution of gigantism in nine-spined sticklebacks. Evolution 63:3190–3200PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Hodges KE, Stefan CI, Gillis EA (1999) Does body condition affect fecundity in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares? Can J Zool 77:1–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Holmengen N, Seip KL, Boyce M, Stenseth NC (2009) Predator–prey coupling: interaction between mink Mustela vision and muskrat Ondatra zibethicus across Canada. Oikos 118:440–448CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Holt SJ (2004) Counting whales in the North Atlantic. Science 303:39PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Huitu O, Norrdahl K, Korpimäki E (2003) Landscape effects on temporal and spatial properties of vole population fluctuations. Oecologia 135:209–220PubMedGoogle Scholar
  57. Ims RA, Henden J, Killengreen ST (2008) Collapsing population cycles. Trends Ecol Evol 23:79–86PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. International Whaling Commission (2001a) Report of the workshop on the status and trends of western North Atlantic right whales. J Cetacean Res Manage 2(Sp Issue):61–87Google Scholar
  59. International Whaling Commission (2001b) Report of the workshop on the comprehensive assessment of right whales: A worldwide comparison. J Cetacean Res Manage 2(Sp Issue):1–35Google Scholar
  60. International Whaling Commission (2002) Report of the scientific committee. Annex H. Report of the sub-Committee on the comprehensive assessment of North Atlantic humpback whales. J Cetacean Res Manage 4(Suppl):230–260Google Scholar
  61. International Whaling Commission (2003a) Report of the scientific committee. Annex H. Report of the sub-Committee on the comprehensive assessment of humpback whales. J Cetacean Res Manage 5(Suppl):293–323Google Scholar
  62. International Whaling Commission (2003b) Report of the scientific committee. Annex E. Report of the standing working group (SWG) on the development of an aboriginal whaling management procedure (AWMP). J Cetacean Res Manage 5(Suppl):154–225Google Scholar
  63. International Whaling Commission (2010) Report of the second intersessional workshop of the North Atlantic fin whale implementation. J Cetacean Res Manage 11(Suppl):587–627Google Scholar
  64. International Whaling Commission (2011) Report of the third intersessional workshop on the review of MSYR for baleen whales. J Cetacean Res Manage 12(Suppl):401–411Google Scholar
  65. Jackson JA, Patenaude NJ, Carroll EL, Baker CS (2008) How few whales were there after whaling. Mol Ecol 17:236–251PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Jefferson TA, Stacey PJ, Baird RW (1991) A review of killer whale interactions with other marine mammals: predation to co-existence. Mamm Rev 21:151–180CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Kapeller S, Schroeder H, Schueler S (2011) Modelling the spatial population dynamics of the green oak leaf roller. Ecol Model 222:1293–1302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Klemola T, Norrdahl K, Korpimäki E (2000) Do delayed effects of overgrazing explain population cycles in voles? Oikos 90:509-516CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Klemola T, Pettersen T, Stenseth NC (2003) Trophic interactions in population cycles of voles and lemmings: a model-based synthesis. Ad Ecol Res 33:75–160Google Scholar
  70. Klemola T, Ruohomäki K, Andersson T, Neuvonen S (2004) Reduction in size and fecundity of the autumnal moth, Epirrita autumnata, in the increase phase of a population cycle. Oecologia 141:47–56PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Klemola T, Huitu O, Ruohomäki K (2006) Geographically partitioned spatial synchrony among cyclic moth populations. Oikos 114:349–359CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Korpimäki E, Norrdahl K (1998) Experimental reduction of predators reverses the crash phase of small rodent cycles. Ecology 79:2448–2455Google Scholar
  73. Korpimäki E, Norrdahl K, Klemola T, Pettersen T, Stenseth NC (2002) Dynamic effects of predators on cyclic voles: field experimentation and model extrapolation. Proc R Soc Lond B 269:991–997CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Korpimäki E, Klemola T, Norrdahl K, Oksanen L, Oksanen T, Banks PB, Batzli GO, Henttonen H (2003) Vole cycles and predation. Trends Ecol Evol 18:494–495CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Korpimäki E, Oksanen L, Oksanen T, Klemola T, Norrdahl K, Banks PB (2005) Vole cycles and predation in temperate and boreal zones of Europe. J Anim Ecol 74:1150–1159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Kraus SD (2002) Birth, death, and taxis: North Atlantic right whales in the twenty-first century. Ph.D thesis, University of New Hampshire, New HampshireGoogle Scholar
  77. Kraus SD, Pace III M, Frasier TR (2007) High investment, low return: The strange case of reproduction in Eubalaena glacialis. In: Kraus SD, Rolland RM (eds) The urban whale. North Atlantic right whales at the crossroads. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, pp 172–199Google Scholar
  78. Krebs CJ (1996) Population cycles revisited. J Mamm 77:8–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Krebs CJ (2011) Of lemmings and snowshoe hares: the ecology of northern canada. Proc R Soc Lond B 278:481–489CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Krebs CJ, Myers J (1974) Population cycles in small mammals. Ad Ecol Res 8:267–399CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Krebs CJ, Gaines MS, Keller BL, Myers JH, Tamarin RH (1973) Population cycles in small rodents. Science 179:35–41PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Laake JL, Punt A, Hobbs R, Ferguson M, Rugh D, Breiwick J (2009) Re-analysis of gray whale southbound migration surveys 1967–2006. US Dept Commer NOAA Tech Memo NMFS-AFSC-203Google Scholar
  83. Lambin X, Elston DA, Petty SJ, MacKinnon JL (1998) Spatial asynchrony and periodic travelling waves in cyclic population of field voles. Proc R Soc Lond B 265:1491–1496CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Lambin X, Petty SJ, Mackinnon JL (2000) Cyclic dynamics in field vole populations and generalist predation. J Anim Ecol 69:106–119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Lambin X, Bretagnolle V, Yoccoz NG (2006) Vole population cycles in northern and southern Europe: is there a need for different explanations for single pattern? J Anim Ecol 75:340–349PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Law R (2000) Fishing, selection, and phenotypic evolution. ICES J Mar Sci 57:659–668CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. Le Boeuf BJ, Briggs KT (1977) The cost of living in a seal harem. Mammalia 41:167–195CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Leirs H, Stenseth NC, Nichols JD, Hines JE, Verhagen R, Verheyen W (1997) Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an african rodent. Nature 389:176–180PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Lidicker WZ, Ostfeld RS (1991) Extra-large body size in California voles: causes and fitness consequences. Oikos 61:108–121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Lima M, Stenseth NC, Jaksic FM (2002) Population dynamics of a South American rodent: seasonal structure interacting with climate, density dependence and predator effects. Proc R Soc Lond B 269:2579–2586CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. Lockyer C, Sigurjonsson J (1992) Author’s summary of SC/F91/F8: the Icelandic fin whale, (Balaenoptera physalus): biological parameters and their trends over time. Rep Int Whal Commn 42:617Google Scholar
  92. Lotka AJ (1925) Elements of physical biology. Williams and Wilkins, BaltimoreGoogle Scholar
  93. Malthus TR (1798) An essay on the principle of population. Johnson, LondonGoogle Scholar
  94. Mappes T, Koivula M, Koskela E, Oksanen TA, Savolainen T, Sivervo B (2008) Frequency and density-dependent selection on life-history strategies—a field experiment. PLOS One 3:e1687PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Matthiopoulos J, Moss R, Mougeot F, Lambin X, Redpath SM (2003) Territorial behaviour and population dynamics in red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus. ii. population models. J Anim Ecol 72:1083–1096CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. McCullough DR (1979) The George River deer herd: population ecology of a k-selected species. Univ. Michigan Press, Ann ArborGoogle Scholar
  97. Mehta AV, Allen JM, Constantine R, Garrigue C, Jann B, Jenner C, Marx MK, Matkin CO, Mattila DK, Minton G, Mizroch SA, Olavarria C, Robbins J, Russell KG, Seton RE, Steiger GH, Vikingsson GA, Wade PR, Witteveen BH, Clapham PJ (2007) Baleen whales are not important as prey for killer whales Orcinus orca in high-latitude regions. MEPS 348:297–307CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. Mihok S. Boonstra R (1992) Breeding performance in captivity of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) from decline- and increase-phase populations. Can J Zool 70:1561–1566CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. Mihok S, Turner BN, Iverson SL (1985) The characterization of vole population dynamics. Ecol Monogr 55:399–420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. Mizroch SA, Rice DW, Breiwick JM (1984a) The fin whale Balaenoptera physalus. Mar Fish Rev 46:20–24Google Scholar
  101. Mizroch SA, Rice DW, Breiwick JM (1984b) The blue whale Balaenoptera musculus. Mar Fish Rev 46:15–19Google Scholar
  102. Moran PAP (1953) The statistical analysis of the Canadian lynx cycle. Aust J Zool 1:163–173CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  103. Mori M, Butterworth DS (2004) Consideration of multispecies interactions in the Antarctic: A preliminary model of the minke whale–blue whale–krill interaction. Afr J Mar Sci 26:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. Mousseau TA, Fox CW (1998) The adaptive significance of maternal effects. Trends Ecol Evol 13:403–407PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. Murdoch WW, McCauley E (1985) Three distinct types of dynamic behavior shown by a single planktonic system. Nature 316:628–630CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  106. Myers JH (1990) Population cycles of western tent caterpillars: experimental introductions and synchrony of fluctuations. Ecology 71:986–995CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  107. Myers JH (1998) Synchrony in outbreaks of forest Lepidoptera: a possible example of the moran effect. Ecology 79:1111–1117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  108. Naessig PJ, Lanyon JM (2004) Levels and probable origin of predator scarring on humpback whales. Rep Int Whal Commn Sp Issue 12:63–85Google Scholar
  109. Naumov SP, Gibet LA, Shatalova S (1969) Dynamics of sex ratio in respect to changes in numbers of mammals. Zh Obshch Biol 30:673–680Google Scholar
  110. Newton I (1687) Philosophiae naturalis principia mathematica, London (in Latin)Google Scholar
  111. Norrdahl K (1995) Population cycles in northern small mammals. Biol Rev 70:621–637PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  112. Norrdahl K, Korpimäki E (1995) Effects of predator removal on vertebrate prey populations: birds of prey and small mammals. Oecologia 103:241–248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. Norrdahl K, Korpimäki E (2002) Changes in individual quality during a 3-year population cycle of voles. Oecologia 130:239–249Google Scholar
  114. North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission (2011) Report of the eighteenth meeting of the scientific committee. NAMMCO Ann Rep 2011:229–402Google Scholar
  115. Øien N (2009) Distribution and abundance of large whales in Norwegian and adjacent waters based on ship surveys 1995–2005. NAMMCO Sci Publ 7:31–48Google Scholar
  116. Oksanen L, Oksanen T (1992) Long-term microtine dynamics in north Fennoscandian tundra: the vole cycle and the lemming chaos. Ecography 15:226–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  117. Oksanen T, Oksanen L, Schneider M, Aunapuu M (2001) Regulation, cycles and stability in northern carnivore-herbivore systems: back to first principles. Oikos 94:101–117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  118. Olesiuk PF, Ellis GM, Ford JKB (2005) Life history and population dynamics of Northern resident killer whales Orcinus orca in British Columbia. Fisheries and Oceans Canada Research Document 2005/045Google Scholar
  119. Oli MK (2003a) Population cycles of small rodents are caused by specialist predators: or are they? Trends Ecol Evol 18:105–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  120. Oli MK (2003b) Response to Korpimäki et al.: vole cycles and predation. Trends Ecol Evol 18:495–496CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. Olsen EM, Heino M, Lilly GR, Morgan MJ, Brattey J, Ernande B, Dieckmann U (2004) Maturation trends indicative of rapid evolution preceded the collapse of northern cod. Nature 428:932–935PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  122. Paxton CGM, Burt ML, Hedley SL, Vikingsson GA, Gunnlaugsson T, Desportes G (2009) Density surface fitting to estimate the abundance of humpback whales based on the nass-95 and nass-2001 aerial and shipboard surveys. NAMMCO Sci Publ 7:143–160Google Scholar
  123. Piertney SB, Lambin X, Maccoll ADC, Lock K, Bacon PJ, Dallas JF, Leckie F, Mougeot F, Racey PA, Redpath S, Moss R (2008) Temporal changes in kin structure through a population cycle in a territorial bird, the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus. Mol Ecol 17:2544–2551PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  124. Punt AE (2006) Assessing the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales using abundance data together with data on length or age. J Cetacean Res Manage 8:127–137Google Scholar
  125. Punt AE, Butterworth DS (1999) On assessment of the Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) using a Bayesian approach. J Cetacean Res Manage 1:53–71Google Scholar
  126. Punt AE, Wade PR (2010) Population status of the eastern North Pacific stock of gray whales in 2009. US Dept Commer NOAA Tech Memo NMFS-AFSC-207Google Scholar
  127. Punt AE, Allison C, Fay G (2004) An examination of assessment models for the eastern North Pacific gray whale based on inertial dynamics. J Cetacean Res Manage 6:121–132Google Scholar
  128. Ramp C, Berube M, Hagen W, Sears R (2006) Survival of adult blue whales Balaenoptera musculus in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. MEPS 319:287–295CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  129. Reeves RR, Berger J, Clapham PJ (2006) Killer whales as predators of large baleen whales and sperm whales. In: Estes JA, DeMarster DP, Doak DF, Williams TM, Brownell RL (eds) Whales, whaling and ecosystems. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 174–187Google Scholar
  130. Reznick DN, Butler IMJ, Rodd FH, Ross P (1996) Life-history evolution in guppies (Poecilia reticulata) 6. Differential mortality as a mechanism for natural selection. Evolution 50:1651–1660Google Scholar
  131. Robbins J (2007) Structure and dynamics of the Gulf of Maine humpback whale population. Ph.D thesis, University of St. Andrews, St. AndrewsGoogle Scholar
  132. Robertson A (1968) The spectrum of genetic variation. In: Lewontin RC (ed) Population biology and evolution. Syracuse University Press, New York, pp 5–16Google Scholar
  133. Roff DA (2002) Life history evolution. Sinauer Associates, Inc, MassachusettsGoogle Scholar
  134. Roman J, Rapumbi SR (2003) Whales before whaling in the North Atlantic. Science 301:508–510PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  135. Rossetto M, De Leo G, Bevacqua D, Micheli F (2012) Allometric scaling of mortality rates with body mass in abalones. Oecologia 168:989–996PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  136. Rossiter MC (1994) Maternal effects hypothesis of herbivore outbreak. BioSci 44:752–763CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  137. Roth JD, Marshall JD, Murray DL, Nickerson DM, Steury TD (2007) Geographical gradients in diet affect population dynamics of Canada lynx. Ecology 88:2736–2743PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  138. Roughgarden J (1971) Density-dependent natural selection. Ecology 5:453–468CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  139. Rubin DB (1988) Using the SIR algorithm to simulate posterior distributions. In: Bernardo JM, DeGroot MH, Lindley DV, Smith AM (eds) Bayesian statistics 3. Proceedings of the third Valencia international meeting, 1–5 June 1987. Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp 395–402Google Scholar
  140. Saccheri I, Hanski I (2006) Natural selection and population dynamics. Trends Ecol Evol 21:341–347PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  141. Schoener TW (2011) The newest synthesis: understanding the interplay of evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Science 331:426–429PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  142. Scott RD, Sampson DB (2011) The sensitivity of long-term yield targets to changes in fishery age-selectivity. Mar Policy 35:79–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  143. Semeonoff R, Robertson FW (1968) A biochemical and ecological study of plasma esterase polymorphism in natural populations of the field vole, Microtus agrestis L. Biochem Genet 1:205–227PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  144. Sigurjonsson J, Gunnlaugsson T (1990) Recent trends in the abundance of blue and humpback whales off west and southwest Iceland with a note on the occurrence of other cetacean species. Rep Int Whal Comm 40:537–551Google Scholar
  145. Simchuk AP, Ivashov AV, Companiytsev VA (1999) Genetic patters as possible factors causing population cycles in oak leafroller moth, Tortrix viridana L. For Ecol Manage 113:35–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  146. Sinclair AF, Swain DP, Hanson JM (2002) Disentangling the effects of size-selective mortality, density, and temperature on length-at-age. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 59:372–382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  147. Sinervo B, Svensson E, Comendant T (2000) Density cycles and an offspring quantity and quality game driven by natural selection. Nature 406:985–988PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  148. Smith TD, Reeves RR (2010) Historical catches of humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, in the North Atlantic ocean: estimates of landings and removals. Mar Fish Rev 72:1–43Google Scholar
  149. Stearns SC (1992) The evolution of life histories. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  150. Stenseth NC (1981) On Chitty’s theory for fluctuating population: the importance of genetic polymorphism in the generation of regular density cycles. J Theor Biol 90:9–36PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  151. Stenseth NC (1995) Snowshoe hare populations: squeezed from below and above. Science 269:1061–1062PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  152. Stenseth NC, Ims R (eds) (1993) The biology of lemmings. Academic Press, San DiegoGoogle Scholar
  153. Stenseth NC, Viljugrein H, Saitoh T, Hansen TF, Kittilsen MO, Bølviken E, Glöckner F (2003) Seasonality, density dependence, and population cycles in Hokkaido voles. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:11478–11483PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  154. Sundell J, Huitu O, Henttonen H, Kaikusalo A, Korpimäki E, Pietiäinen H, Saurola P, Hanski I (2004) Large-scale spatial dynamics of vole populations in Finland revealed by the breeding success of vole–eating avian predators. J Anim Ecol 73:167–178CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  155. Svanbäck R, Pineda-Krch M, Doebeli M (2009) Fluctuating population dynamics promotes the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Nature 174:176–189Google Scholar
  156. Thompson JN (1998) Rapid evolution as an ecological process. Trends Ecol Evol 13:329–332PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  157. Turchin P, Batzli GO (2001) Availability of food and the population dynamics of arvicoline rodents. Ecology 82:1521–1534CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  158. Turchin P, Oksanen L, Ekerholm P, Oksanen T, Henttonen H (2000) Are lemmings prey or predators? Nature 405:562–565PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  159. Turcotte MM, Reznick DN, Hare JD (2011a) The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics. Ecol Lett 14:1084–1092PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  160. Turcotte MM, Reznick DN, Hare JD (2011b) Experimental assessment of the impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics. Evol Ecol Res 13:113–131Google Scholar
  161. Voipio P (1950) Evolution at the population level with special reference to game animals and practical game management. Papers Game Res 5:1–176Google Scholar
  162. Volterra V (1926) Variazioni e fluttuazioni del numero d’individui in specie animali conviventi. Mem Acad Lincei 2:31–113 (in Italian)Google Scholar
  163. Wade PR (2002) A Bayesian stock assessment of the Eastern pacific gray whale using abundance and harvest data from 1967–1996. J Cetacean Res Manage 4:85–98Google Scholar
  164. Watson A, Moss R, Parr R, Mountford MD, Rothery P (1994) Kin landownership, differential aggression between kin and non-kin, and population fluctuations in red grouse. J Anim Ecol 63:39–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  165. Weller DW (2002) Predation on marine mammals. In: Perrin WF, Würsig B, Thewissen JGM (eds) The encyclopaedia of marine mammals. Academic Press, San Diego, pp 985–994Google Scholar
  166. Witting L (1997) A general theory of evolution. By means of selection by density dependent competitive interactions. Peregrine Publisher, ÅrhusGoogle Scholar
  167. Witting L (2000a) Population cycles caused by selection by density dependent competitive interactions. Bull Math Biol 62:1109–1136PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  168. Witting L (2000b) Interference competition set limits to the fundamental theorem of natural selection. Acta Biotheor 48:107–120PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  169. Witting L (2002a) Evolutionary dynamics of exploited populations selected by density dependent competitive interactions. Ecol Model 157:51–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  170. Witting L (2002b) From asexual to eusocial reproduction by multilevel selection by density dependent competitive interactions. Theor Pop Biol 61:171–195CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  171. Witting L (2003a) Major life-history transitions by deterministic directional natural selection. J Theor Biol 225:389–406PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  172. Witting L (2003b) Reconstructing the population dynamics of eastern Pacific gray whales over the past 150 to 400 years. J Cetacean Res Manage 5:45–54Google Scholar
  173. Witting L (2008) Inevitable evolution: Back to The Origin and beyond the 20th Century paradigm of contingent evolution by historical natural selection. Biol Rev 83:259–294PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  174. Yoshida T, Jones LE, Ellner SP, Fussmann GF, Hairston NG (2003) Rapid evolution drives ecological dynamics in a predator–prey system. Nature 424:303–306PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  175. Yukhov VL, Vinogradova EK, Medvedev LI (1975) The food species of killer whales in the Antarctic and adjacent waters. Morskie Mlekopitayshchie Chast 2:183–185Google Scholar
  176. Zeh JE, Punt AE (2005) Updated 1978–2001 abundance estimates and their correlations for the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort seas stock of bowhead whales. J Cetacean Res Manage 7:169–175Google Scholar
  177. Zeh J, Poole D, Miller G, Koski W, Baraff L, Hugh D (2002) Survival of bowhead whales, balaena mysticetus, estimated from 1981. Biometrics 58:832–840PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Greenland Institute of Natural ResourcesNuukGreenland

Personalised recommendations