Advertisement

Spatiotemporal variations of land use intensity and its driving forces in China, 2000–2010

  • Feng Xu
  • Guangqing ChiEmail author
Original Article
  • 69 Downloads

Abstract

Land use change exhibits spatiotemporal variations in China due to hetergenous spatial patterns of urbanization and unevenness of regional development. However, the spatiotemporal aspects of the mechanism that drives land use change have not been fully explored. By introducing and improving an index called land use intensity (LUI), this study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of county-level land use across China from 2000 to 2010 and examines the relationship between LUI change and its driving forces by considering spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the effects. A set of spatial regression models are used to identify the spatial variations of human, environmental, and physical factors’ effects on LUI change. Results indicate both LUI and its changes show obvious regional differences but overlap in space with regional urban agglomerations. Heterogeneity exhibits in the spatial dimension of LUI changes. The influences and spatiotemporal characteristics of driving forces vary. The improvements of the LUI measure offer a new pathway to track the urbanization process and review regional development strategies. The identification of LUI change and its driving factors provides insights for the improvement of policies concerning regional differences, local vulnerability, and sustainable development.

Keywords

Land use change Land use intensity Driving forces Spatiotemporal variation Spatial regression China 

Notes

Funding information

This research was financially supported in part by the State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources (Award no. GPMR201606), the China Scholarship Council (CSC no. 201606410004), and the Social Science Research Institute and the Institutes for Energy and the Environment of the Pennsylvania State University.

References

  1. Appiah DO, Bugri JT, Forkuor EK, Boateng PK (2014) Determinants of peri-urbanization and land use change patterns in peri-urban Ghana. J Sustain Dev 7:95–109.  https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v7n6p95 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Blüthgen N, Dormann CF, Prati D, Klaus VH, Kleinebecker T, Hölzel N, Alt F, Boch S, Gockel S, Hemp A, Müller J, Nieschulze J, Renner SC, Schöning I, Schumacher U, Socher SA, Wells K, Birkhofer K, Buscot F, Oelmann Y, Rothenwöhrer C, Scherber C, Tscharntke T, Weiner CN, Fischer M, Kalko EKV, Linsenmair KE, Schulze ED, Weisser WW (2012) A quantitative index of land-use intensity in grasslands: Integrating mowing, grazing and fertilization. Basic Appl Ecol 13:207–220.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2012.04.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bren d’Amour C, Reitsma F, Baiocchi G, Barthel S, Güneralp B, Erb KH, Haberl H, Creutzig F, Seto KC (2016) Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands. Proc Nat Acad Sci 114:8939–8944.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606036114 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brown MT, Vivas MB (2005) Landscape development intensity index. Environ Monit Assess 101:289–309.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-005-0296-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Brunsdon C, Fotheringham AS, Charlton ME (1996) Geographically weighted regression: a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity. Geogr Anal 28:281–298.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1996.tb00936.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cao Z, Wu Z, Kuang Y, Huang N (2015) Correction of DMSP/OLS night-time light images and its application in China. J Geo-Inf Sci 17:1092–1101 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  7. Chen Y, Li X, Tian Y, Tan M (2009) Structural change of agricultural land use intensity and its regional disparity in China. J Geogr Sci 19:545–556.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-009-0545-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chi G (2010) The impacts of highway expansion on population change: an integrated spatial approach. Rural Sociol 75:58–89.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1549-0831.2009.00003.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chi G, Ho HC (2018) Population stress: a spatiotemporal analysis of population change and land development at the county level in the contiguous United States, 2001–2011. Land Use Policy 70:128–137.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.10.008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chi G, Zhu J (2019) Spatial regression models for the social sciences. SAGE Publications, Thousand OaksGoogle Scholar
  11. Cropper M, Griffiths C (2016) The interaction of population growth and environmental quality. Ame Econ Rev 84:250–254Google Scholar
  12. Daniels E, Lenderink G, Hutjes R, Holtslag A (2016) Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 20:4129–4142.  https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4129-2016 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Deng X, Huang J, Rozelle S, Uchida E (2008) Growth, population and industrialization, and urban land expansion of China. J Urban Econ 63:96–115.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2006.12.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Deng X, Huang J, Rozelle S, Zhang J, Li Z (2015) Impact of urbanization on cultivated land changes in China. Land Use Policy 45:1–7.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.01.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Doll CNH, Muller JP, Morley JG (2006) Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light satellite imagery. Ecol Econ 57:75–92.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.03.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Elhorst JP (2010) Applied spatial econometrics: raising the bar. Spat Econ Anal 5:9–28.  https://doi.org/10.1080/17421770903541772 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Elvidge CD, Ziskin D, Baugh KE, Tuttle BT, Ghosh T, Pack DW, Erwin EH, Zhizhin M (2009) A fifteen year record of global natural gas flaring derived from satellite data. Energies 2:595–622.  https://doi.org/10.3390/en20300595 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Fan J, Ma T, Zhou C, Zhou Y, Xu T (2014) Comparative estimation of urban development in China’s cities using socioeconomic and DMSP/OLS night light data. Remote Sens 6:7840–7856.  https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6087840 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Feng X, Liu G, Chen JM, Chen M, Liu J, Ju WM, Sun R, Zhou W (2007) Net primary productivity of China’s terrestrial ecosystems from a process model driven by remote sensing. J Environ Manag 85:563–573.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.09.021 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Forbes DJ (2013) Multi-scale analysis of the relationship between economic statistics and DMSP-OLS night light images. GISci Remote Sens 50:483–499.  https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2013.823732 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Fotheringham AS, Oshan TM (2016) Geographically weighted regression and multicollinearity: dispelling the myth. J Geogr Syst 18:303–329.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-016-0239-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Gingrich S, Niedertscheider M, Kastner T, Haberl H, Cosor G, Krausmann F, Kuemmerle T, Müller D, Reith-Musel A, Jepsen MR, Vadineanu A, Erb KH (2015) Exploring long-term trends in land use change and aboveground human appropriation of net primary production in nine European countries. Land Use Policy 47:426–438.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.04.027 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Han J, Liang Y, Zhao B, Wang Y, Xing F, Qin L (2019) Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) geographical distribution in China and their source, risk assessment analysis. Environ Pollut 251:312–327.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.05.022 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Hutchinson MF (1998) Interpolation of rainfall data withthin plate smoothing splines–Part I: tow dimensionalsmoothing of data with short range correlation. J Geogr Inf Decis Anal 2:139–151Google Scholar
  25. Körner C (2007) The use of “altitude” in ecological research. Trends Ecol Evol 22:569–574.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2007.09.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kristensen SBP, Busck AG, van der Sluis T, Gaube V (2016) Patterns and drivers of farm-level land use change in selected European rural landscapes. Land Use Policy 57:786–799.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.07.014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kuang W, Liu J, Dong J, Chi W, Zhang C (2016) The rapid and massive urban and industrial land expansions in China between 1990 and 2010: a CLUD-based analysis of their trajectories, patterns, and drivers. Landsc Urban Plan 145:21–33.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.10.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Lawler JJ, Lewis DJ, Nelson E, Plantinga AJ, Polasky S, Withey JC, Helmers DP, Martinuzzi S, Pennington D, Radeloff VC (2014) Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:7492–7497.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1405557111 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Li M, Wu J, Deng X (2013) Identifying drivers of land use change in China: a spatial multinomial Logit model analysis. Land Econ 89:632–654.  https://doi.org/10.3368/le.89.4.632 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Li G, Sun S, Fang C (2018) The varying driving forces of urban expansion in China: insights from a spatial-temporal analysis. Landsc Urban Plan 174:63–77.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.03.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Liu J, Liu M, Zhuang D, Zhang Z, Deng X (2003a) Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995–2000. Sci China Ser D Earth Sci 46:373–384.  https://doi.org/10.1360/03yd9033
  32. Liu J, Zhang Z, Zhuang D, Wang Y, Zhou W, Zhang S (2003b) A study on the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of land-use and driving forces analyses of China in the 1990s. Geogr Res 22:1–12Google Scholar
  33. Liu J, Zhang Z, Xu X, Kuang W, Zhou W, Zhang S, Li R, Yan C, Yu D, Wu S, Jiang N (2010) Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century. J Geogr Sci 20:483–494.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-010-0483-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Liu Y, Fang F, Li Y (2014a) Key issues of land use in China and implications for policy making. Land Use Policy 40:6–12.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.03.013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Liu J, Kuang W, Zhang Z, Xu X, Qin Y, Ning J, Zhou W, Zhang S, Li R, Yan C, Wu S, Shi X, Jiang N, Yu D, Pan X, Chi W (2014b) Spatiotemporal characteristics, patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s. Acta Geogr Sin 69:3–14.  https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201401001
  36. Liu Y, Zhang X, Kong X, Wang R, Chen L (2018) Identifying the relationship between urban land expansion and human activities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. Appl Geogr 94:163–177.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.03.016 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Ministry of Public Security PRC (2001) Population statistics of counties and cities in the people’s Republic of China in 2000. The Public Press, Beijing (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  38. Ministry of Public Security PRC (2011) Population statistics of counties and cities in the people's Republic of China in 2010. The Public Press, Beijing (in Chinese).Google Scholar
  39. Mottet A, Ladet S, Coqué N, Gibon A (2006) Agricultural land-use change and its drivers in mountain landscapes: a case study in the Pyrenees. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:296–310.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.017 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Mueller V, Gray C, Kosec K (2014) Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nat Clim Chang 4:182–185.  https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2103 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. National Bureau of Statistics PRC (2001) Statistical communique on national economic and social development in 2000. China Statistics Press, Beijing (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  42. National Bureau of Statistics PRC (2002) China’s 2000 Population Census Data. Retrieved from http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/rkpc/5rp/index.htm
  43. National Bureau of Statistics PRC (2011a) Statistical communique on national economic and social development in 2010. China Statistics Press, Beijing (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  44. National Bureau of Statistics PRC (2011b) China’s 2010 Population Census Data. Retrieved from http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/rkpc/6rp/indexch.htm.
  45. Nyawira SS, Nabel JEMS, Brovkin V, Pongratz J (2017) Input-driven versus turnover-driven controls of simulated changes in soil carbon due to land-use change. Environ Res Lett 12:084015.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7ca9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Peng J, Du Y, Liu Y, Hu X (2016) How to assess urban development potential in mountain areas? An approach of ecological carrying capacity in the view of coupled human and natural systems. Ecol Indic 60:1017–1030.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.09.008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Plieninger T, Draux H, Fagerholm N, Bieling C, Bürgi M, Kizos T, Kuemerle T, Primdahl J, Verburg PH (2016) The driving forces of landscape change in Europe: A systematic review of the evidence. Land Use Policy 57:204–214.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.04.040 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Rao KS, Pant R (2001) Land use dynamics and landscape change pattern in a typical micro watershed in the mid elevation zone of central Himalaya, India. Agric Ecosyst Environ 86:113–123.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2005.03.061 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Rounsevell MDA, Pedroli B, Erb KH, Gramberger M, Busck AG, Haberl H, Kristensen S, Kuemmerle T, Lavorel S, Lindner M, Lotze-Campen H, Metzger MJ, Murray-Rust D, Popp A, Pérez-Soba M, Reenberg A, Vadineanu A, Verburg PH, Wolfslehner B (2012) Challenges for land system science. Land Use Policy 29:899–910.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Salazar A, Baldi G, Hirota M, Syktus J, McAlpine C (2015) Land use and land cover change impacts on the regional climate of non-Amazonian South America: a review. Glob Planet Chang 128:103–119.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.02.009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Siciliano G (2012) Urbanization strategies, rural development and land use changes in China: a multiple-level integrated assessment. Land Use Policy 29:165–178.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.06.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Smith P (2008) Land use change and soil organic carbon dynamics. Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst 81:169–178.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-007-9138-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Smith P, House JI, Bustamante M, Sobocká J, Harper R, Pan G, West PC, Clark JM, Adhya T, Rumpel C, Paustian K, Kuikman P, Cotrufo MF, Elliott JA, McDowell R, Griffiths RI, Asakawa S, Bondeau A, Jain AK, Meersmans J, Pugh TAM (2016) Global change pressures on soils from land use and management. Glob Chang Biol 22:1008–1028.  https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13068 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Song W, Deng X, Yuan Y, Wang Z, Li Z (2015) Impacts of land-use change on valued ecosystem service in rapidly urbanized North China Plain. Ecol Model 318:245–253.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.01.029 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Stetzer F (1982) Specifying weights in spatial forecasting models: the results of some experiments. Environ Plan A 14:571–584.  https://doi.org/10.1068/a140571 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Stürck J, Schulp CJE, Verburg PH (2015) Spatiotemporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe- the role of past and future land use change. Appl Geogr 63:121–135.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Su S, Xiao R, Jiang Z, Zhang Y (2012) Characterizing landscape pattern and ecosystem service value changes for urbanization impacts at an eco-regional scale. Appl Geogr 34:295–305.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.12.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Tao Y, Li F, Crittenden J, Lu Z, Ou W, Song Y (2019) Measuring urban environmental sustainability performance in China: a multi-scale comparison among different cities, urban clusters, and geographic regions. Cities 94:200–210.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.06.014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Teixeira Z, Teixeira H, Marques JC (2014) Systematic processes of land use/land cover change to identify relevant driving forces: implications on water quality. Sci Total Environ 470:1320–1335.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.10.098 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Van Vliet J, de Groot HLF, Rietveld P, Verburg PH (2015) Manifestations and underlying drivers of agricultural land use change in Europe. Landsc Urban Plan 133:24–36.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.09.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Verburg PH, Erb KH, Mertz O, Espindola G (2013) Land system science: between global challenges and local realities. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 5:433–437.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.08.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Vlam M, Baker PJ, Bunyavejchewin S, Zuidema PA (2014) Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees. Oecologia 174:1449–1461.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-013-2846-x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Wang J, Chen Y, Shao X, Zhang Y, Cao Y (2012) Land-use changes and policy dimension driving forces in China: present, trend and future. Land Use Policy 29:737–749.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.11.010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Wei YD, Ye X (2014) Urbanization, urban land expansion and environmental change in China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 28:757–765.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0840-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Wrenn DH, Sam AG (2014) Geographically and temporally weighted likelihood regression: exploring the spatiotemporal determinants of land use change. Reg Sci Urban Econ 44:60–74.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.10.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Xu J, Yeh A, Wu F (2009) Land commodification: new land development and politics in China since the late 1990s. Int J Urban Reg Res 33:890–913.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.2009.00892.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Yan H, Liu J, Huang HQ, Tao B, Cao M (2009) Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China. Glob Planet Chang 67:13–19.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.12.012 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Yan H, Liu F, Liu J, Xiao X, Qin Y (2017) Status of land use intensity in China and its impacts on land carrying capacity. J Geogr Sci 27:387–402.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-017-1383-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Zhang Z, Su S, Xiao R, Jiang D, Wu J (2013) Identifying determinants of urban growth from a multi-scale perspective: a case study of the urban agglomeration around Hangzhou Bay, China. Appl Geogr 45:193–202.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.09.013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Zhang Z, Wang X, Zhao X, Liu B, Yi L, Zuo L, Wen Q, Liu F, Xu J, Hu S (2014) A 2010 update of national land use/cover database of China at 1 : 100000 scale using medium spatial resolution satellite images. Remote Sens Environ 149:142–154.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.04.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Zhao G, Liu J, Kuang W, Ouyang Z, Xie Z (2015) Disturbance impacts of land use change on biodiversity conservation priority areas across China: 1990–2010. J Geogr Sci 25:515–529.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-015-1184-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Zhuang D, Liu J (1997) Modeling of regional differentiation of land-use degree in China. Chin Geogr Sci 7:302–309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Zuo D, Xu Z, Yao W, Jin S, Xiao P, Ran D (2016) Assessing the effects of changes in land use and climate on runoff and sediment yields from a watershed in the Loess Plateau of China. Sci Total Environ 544:238–250.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.060 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Land Resources ManagementChina University of GeosciencesWuhanChina
  2. 2.Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Population Research Institute, and Social Science Research InstituteThe Pennsylvania State UniversityState CollegeUSA

Personalised recommendations