Future climatic suitability of the Emilia-Romagna (Italy) region for grape production
Grape production is highly responsive to weather conditions and therefore very sensitive to climate change. To evaluate how viticulture in the traditional Italian wine region Emilia-Romagna could be affected by climate change, several bioclimatic indices describing the suitability for grapevine production were calculated for two future periods (2011–2040 and 2071–2100) using CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) high-resolution climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios—RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projections for both of the RCP scenarios showed that most of the Emilia-Romagna region will remain suitable for grape production during the period 2011–2040. By the end of the twenty-first century, the suitability to produce grapes in Emilia-Romagna could be threatened to a greater or smaller extent, depending on the scenario. During the period 2071–2100, the entire Emilia-Romagna region will be too hot for grape production under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, changes will be milder, suggesting that the Emilia-Romagna region could still be suitable for grape cultivation by the end of the twenty-first century but would likely require certain adjustments.
KeywordsClimate change Viticulture Emilia-Romagna Bioclimatic indices
Miss Maria Mavronicola is thanked for English spell-checking.
The first author (N.T.) acknowledges the Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, for providing support and also the Erasmus Mundus Joint EU-SEE PENTA program and the Fund for Young Talents of the Republic of Serbia for a PhD fellowship. Support was also provided by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of integrated and interdisciplinary research (Project 43007 “Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation”).
- Bois B, Zito S, Calonnec A (2017) Climate vs grapevine pests and diseases worldwide: the first results of a global survey. J Int Sci Vigne Vin 51:133–139. https://doi.org/10.20870/oeno-one.2016.0.0.1780
- Huglin MP (1978) Nouveau mode d’évaluation des possibilités héliothermiques d’un milieu viticole. C R Acad Agric Fr 64:1117–1126Google Scholar
- Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B, Alias A, Christensen OB, Bouwer LM, Braun A, Colette A, Déqué M, Georgievski G, Georgopoulou E, Gobiet A, Menut L, Nikulin G, Haensler A, Hempelmann N, Jones C, Keuler K, Kovats S, Kröner N, Kotlarski S, Kriegsmann A, Martin E, van Meijgaard E, Moseley C, Pfeifer S, Preuschmann S, Radermacher C, Radtke K, Rechid D, Rounsevell M, Samuelsson P, Somot S, Soussana JF, Teichmann C, Valentini R, Vautard R, Weber B, Yiou P (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14:563–578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Jones GV, Davis RE (2000) Climate influences on grapevine phenology, grape composition, and wine production and quality for Bordeaux, France. Am J Enol Vitic 51:249–261Google Scholar
- Kizildeniz T, Mekni I, Santesteban H, Pascual I, Morales F, Irigoyen JJ (2015) Effects of climate change including elevated CO2 concentration, temperature and water deficit on growth, water status, and yield quality of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) cultivars. Agric Water Manag 159:155–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.015 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kliewer WM (1977) Influence of temperature, solar radiation and nitrogen on coloration and composition of emperor grapes. Am J Enol Vitic 28:96–103Google Scholar
- Liu M, Rajagopalan K, Chung SH, Jiang X, Harrison J, Nergui T, Guenther A, Miller C, Reyes J, Tague C, Choate J, Salathé EP, Stöckle CO, Adam JC (2014) What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes? Biogeosciences 11:2601–2622. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2601-2014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Malheiro AC, Campos R, Fraga H, Eiras-Dias J, Silvestre J, Santos JA (2013) Winegrape phenology and temperature relationships in the Lisbon wine region, Portugal. J Int Sci Vigne Vin 47:287–299. https://doi.org/10.20870/oeno-one.2013.47.4.1558
- Meier M, Fuhrer J, Holzkämper A (2018) Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley. Int J Biometeorol 62:991–1002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1501-y
- Mullins MG, Bouquet A, Williams LE (1992) Biology of the grapevine. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Pollini L, Bucelli P, Calo A, Costantini E, Lisanti M, Lorenzetti R, Malorgio G, Moio L, Pomarici E, Storchi P, Tomasi D, Amatori E (2013) Atlante dei territori del vino italiano. Pacini Editore. In: PisaGoogle Scholar
- Ruml M, Vuković A, Vujadinović M, Djurdjević V, Ranković-Vasić Z, Atanacković Z, Sivčev B, Marković N, Matijašević S, Petrović N (2012) On the use of regional climate models: implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. Agric For Meteorol 158–159:53–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Salazar-Parra C, Aranjuelo I, Pascual I, Erice G, Sanz-Sáez Á, Aguirreolea J, Sánchez-Díaz M, Irigoyen JJ, Araus JL, Morales F (2015) Carbon balance, partitioning and photosynthetic acclimation in fruit-bearing grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo) grown under simulated climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature and moderate drought) scenarios in temperature gradient greenhouses. J Plant Physiol 174:97–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jplph.2014.10.009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Santos JA, Costa R, Fraga H (2018) New insights into thermal growing conditions of Portuguese grapevine varieties under changing climates. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2443-3
- Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
- Tonietto J (1999) Les emacroclimats viticoles mondiaux et l’influence du mésoclimat sur la typicité de la Syrah et du Muscat de Hambourg dans le sur de la France: méthodologie de caráctérisation. Disertation, Ecole Nationale Supéricure AgronomiqueGoogle Scholar
- van Leeuwen C, Schultz HR, De Cortazar-Atauri IG, Duchêne E, Ollat N, Pieri P, Bois B, Goutouly JP, Quénol H, Touzard JM, Malheiro AC, Bavaresco L, Delrot S (2013) Why climate change will not dramatically decrease viticultural suitability in main wine-producing areas by 2050. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 110:E3051–E3052. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307927110 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. International geophysics series, vol 91, 2nd edn. Elsevier Academic Press Publications, LondonGoogle Scholar