Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 °C versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname
- 118 Downloads
The long-term sustainability of proposed or existing hydropower schemes strongly depends on the availability of water resources. Under climate change, long-term water resource availability in the Caribbean is highly uncertain. This study presents an approach for assessing future climate impacts on regional hydropower potential premised on the use of hydrological models and projections from the latest generation of climate models. When the methodology is applied to the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname, the results indicate significant changes in, both, water resources availability and hydropower potential with increasing global temperatures. A decrease of approximately 40% is projected by the end of the century for global temperature increase in the range of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Under a “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions pathway, which would lead to global temperatures significantly above 1.5 °C, the impact is more severe, with a projected decrease of up to 80% (65 MW) of the firm power capacity (80 MW) by the end of the century.
KeywordsHydropower Climate change Climate modeling Statistical downscaling CMIP5 Suriname
The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Inter comparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Gratitude is expressed to the Caribbean Development Bank and Pilot Project for Climate Resilience (PPCR) for enabling the participation of the authors in the Caribbean 1.5 project. Gratitude is also expressed to the local institutions from Suriname, who made the necessary GIS, hydro-meteorological, and hydraulic data available, namely the Anton de Kom University of Suriname, CELOS-NARENA, and the Ministry of Natural Resources. Els Van Uytven obtained a scholarship from the Fund for Scientific Research (FWO)—Flanders and gratefully acknowledges this financial support.
Els Van Uytven obtained a scholarship from the Fund for Scientific Research (FWO)—Flanders and gratefully acknowledges this financial support.
- Berga L (2013) Floods and Climate Change in Europe. Proceedings, HYDRO 2013: Promoting the Versatile Role of Hydro 7–9 October 2013, Innsbruck, Austria. http://www.hydropower-dams.com/proceedings-overview.php?c_id=164
- Bulu A (2017) Hydroelectric Power Plants - Lecture notes IV - Chapter 4. Istanbul Technical University, College of Civil Engineering. http://web.itu.edu.tr/~bulu/hyroelectic_power_uk.htm; http://web.itu.edu.tr/~bulu/hyroelectic_power_files/lecture_notes_04.pdf. Accessed July 2017
- Chow VT, Maidment DR, Mays LW (1988) Applied hydrology. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York 572pGoogle Scholar
- Collins MR, Knutti J, Arblaster JL, Dufresne T, Fichefet P, Friedlingstein X, Gao WJ, Gutowski T, Johns G, Krinner M, Shongwe C, Tebaldi AJ, Weaver and M. Wehner (2013) Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker,T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USAGoogle Scholar
- Donk P, Willems P, Nurmohamed R (2013) Modeling the impact of Climate Change on the Hydropower potential of the Kabalebo river basin in Suriname. Proceedings, HYDRO 2013: Promoting the versatile role of hydro, 7–9 October, 2013, Innsbruck, Austria. http://www.hydropower-dams.com/proceedings-overview.php?c_id=164
- Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K, Daniel JS, Kainuma MLT, Lamarque J-F, Matsumoto K, Montzka SA, Raper SCB, Riahi K, Thomson AM, Velders GJM, Van Vuuren DP (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Chang 109:213–241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, Van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) Emissions Scenarios - A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp 570Google Scholar
- Nurmohamed R, Naipal S, De Smedt F (2007) Modeling hydrological response of the Upper Suriname river basin to climate change. J Spat Hydrol 7:1–22Google Scholar
- Raes D (2012) The ETo Calculator—evapotranspiration from a reference surface. Reference Manual Version 3.2, September 2012. FAO, ItalyGoogle Scholar
- Smith M (1992) CROPWAT—a computer program for irrigation planning and management. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper N°46. Rome, Italy, pp 126Google Scholar
- Taylor MA, Clarke L, Centella A, Bezanilla A, Stephenson TS, Jones JJ, Campbell JD, Vichot A, Charlery J (2018) Future Caribbean Climates in a World of Rising Temperatures: The 1.5 vs 2.0 Dilemma. JCLI 31:2907–2926. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0074.1
- UNFCCC (2015) Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Proposal by the President (Draft Decision). United Nations Office, Geneva (Switzerland) 32pGoogle Scholar
- Van Els R (2012) De Puketi micro-waterkrachtcentrale in het binnenlandvan Suriname: implementatie, rehabilitatie en ervaringen. Acad J Suriname 3:276–291Google Scholar
- Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds JA, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson AM, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011b) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Willems P (2014a) Parsimonious rainfall-runoff model construction supported by time series processing and validation of hydrological extremes—part 1: step-wise model-structure identification and calibration approach. J Hydrol 510:578–590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.017 CrossRefGoogle Scholar