Abstract
The recent (twentieth century) and future (twenty-first century) climate evolution in the Mediterranean region is analyzed in relation to annual mean global surface temperature change. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) simulations, the CRU (Climate Research Unit) observational gridded dataset, and two twentieth century reanalyzes (ECMWF, European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts) and NOAA ESRL (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Earth System Research Laboratory) are used. These datasets to large extent agree that in the twentieth century: (a) Mediterranean regional and global temperatures have warmed at a similar rate until the 1980s and (b) decadal variability determines a large uncertainty that prevents to identify long-term links between precipitation in the Mediterranean region and global temperature. However, in the twenty-first century, as mean global temperature increases, in the Mediterranean region, precipitation will decrease at a rate around − 20 mm/K or − 4%/K and temperature will warm 20% more than the global average. Warming will be particularly large in summer (approximately 50% larger than global warming) and for the land areas located north of the basin (locally up to 100% larger than global warming). Reduction of precipitation will affect all seasons in the central and southern Mediterranean areas, with maximum reduction for winter precipitation (− 7 mm/K or − 7%/K for the southern Mediterranean region). For areas along the northern border of the Mediterranean region, reduction will be largest in summer (− 7 mm/K or − 9%/K for the whole northern Mediterranean region), while they will not experience a significant reduction of precipitation in winter.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Whenever multiple simulations of the same model are available, the reference r1i1p1 has been used
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Earth System Research Laboratory
European Center for medium-range weather forecasts
Climate Research Unit
All maps show the 50th percentile of the individual model values.
References
Barkhordarian A, Bhend JH, von Storch H (2011) Consistency of observed near surface temperature trends with climate change projections over the Mediterranean. Clim Dyn 38(9-10):1695–1702. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1060-y
Barkhordarian A, von Storch H, Bhend J (2013) The expectation of future precipitation change over the Mediterranean region is different from what we observe. Clim Dyn 40(1-2):225–244. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1497-7
Bindi M, Olesen JE (2011) The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change. Reg Environ Chang 11(S1):151–158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0173-x
Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton O (2007) Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M, Tebaldi C, Weaver AJ, Wehner M (2013) Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024
Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD, Matsui N, Allan RJ, Yin X, Brönnimann S (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 137(654):1–28. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776
Déqué M, Rowell DP, Lüthi D, Giorgi F, Christensen JH, Rockel B, Jacob D, Kjellström E, de Castro M, van den Hurk B (2007) An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Clim Chang 81(S1):53–70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9228-x
Déqué M, Somot S, Sánchez-Gómez E, Goodess CM, Jacob D, Lenderink G, Christensen OB (2012) The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability. Clim Dyn 38(5-6):951–964. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1053-x
Diffenbaugh NS, Pal JS, Giorgi F, Gao X (2007) Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot. Geophys Res Lett 34(11):L11706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030000
García-Ruiz JM, López-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Lasanta–Martínez T, Beguería S (2011) Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario. Earth-Sci Rev 105(3-4):121–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.01.006
Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 33(8):L08707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734
Giorgi F, Lionello P (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Glob Planet Chang 63(2-3):90–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005
Gordo O, Sanz JJ (2010) Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems. Glob Chang Biol 16(3):1082–1106. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02084.x
Gualdi S, Somot S, May W, Castellari S, Déqué M, Adani M, Artale V, Bellucci A, Breitgand JS, Carillo A, Cornes R, Dell’Aquila A, Dubois C, Efthymiadis D, Elizalde A, Gimeno L, Goodess CM, Harzallah A, Krichak SO, Kuglitsch FG, Leckebusch GC, L’Hévéder B, Li L, Lionello P, Luterbacher J, Mariotti A, Navarra A, Nieto R, Nissen KM, Oddo P, Ruti P, Sanna A, Sannino G, Scoccimarro E, Sevault F, Struglia MV, Toreti A, Ulbrich U, Xoplaki E (2013) Future climate projections. In: Navarra A, Tubiana L (eds) Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 53–118. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_3
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations–the CRU TS3. 10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34(3):623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
Iglesias A, Garrote L, Flores F, Moneo M (2007) Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean. Water Resour Manag 21(5):775–788. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9111-6
Iglesias A, Mougou R, Moneo M, Quiroga S (2011) Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean. Reg Environ Chang 11(S1):159–166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0187-4
Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B, Alias A, Christensen OB, Bouwer L, Braun A, Colette A, Déqué M, Georgievski G, Georgopoulou E, Gobiet A, Menut L, Nikulin G, Haensler A, Hempelmann N, Jones C, Keuler K, Kovats S, Kröner N, Kotlarski S, Kriegsmann A, Martin E, Meijgaard E, Moseley C, Pfeifer S, Preuschmann S, Radermacher C, Radtke K, Rechid D, Rounsevell M, Samuelsson P, Somot S, Soussana JF, Teichmann C, Valentini R, Vautard R, Weber B, Yiou P (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14(2):563–578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Hansson U, Strandberg G, Ullerstig A (2011) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus 63(1):24–40. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.x
Lejeusne C, Chevaldonné P, Pergent-Martini C, Boudouresque CF, Pérez T (2010) Climate change effects on a miniature ocean: the highly diverse, highly impacted Mediterranean Sea. Trends Ecol Evol 25(4):250–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.009
Li L, Casado A, Congedi L, Dell’Aquila A, Dubois C, Elizalde A, L’ Hévéder B, Lionello P, Sevault F, Somot S, Ruti P, Zampieri M (2012) Modeling of the Mediterranean climate system. In: Lionello P (ed) The climate of the mediterranean region: from the past to the future. Elsevier, London, pp 419–448. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-416042-2.00007-0
Lionello P, Malanotte-Rizzoli P, Boscolo R, Alpert P, Artale V, Li L, Luterbacher J, May W, Trigo R, Tsimplis M, Ulbrich U, Xoplaki E (2006) The Mediterranean climate: an overview of the main characteristics and issues. In: Lionello P, Malanotte-Rizzoli P, Boscolo R (eds) Mediterranean Climate Variability. Amsterdam, Elsevier, pp 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1571-9197(06)80003-0
Lionello P, Abrantes F, Congedi L, Dulac F, Gacic M, Gomis D, Goodess C, Hoff H, Kutiel H, Luterbacher J, Planton S, Reale M, Schröder K, Struglia MV, Toreti A, Tsimplis M, Ulbrich U, Xoplaki E (2012) Introduction: Mediterranean climate: background information. In: Lionello P (ed) The Climate of the Mediterranean Region. From the Past to the Future. Elsevier (NETHERLANDS), Amsterdam, pp xxxv–xxxc, ISBN: 9780124160422. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-416042-2.00012-4
Moriondo M, Good P, Durao R, Bindi M, Giannakopoulos C, Corte-Real J (2006) Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Clim Res 31:85–95. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr031085
Nakićenović R, Alcamo NJ, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Raihi K, Roehrl A, Rogner HH, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 599pp
Paeth H, Vogt G, Paxian A, Hertig E, Seubert S, Jacobeit J (2017) Quantifying the evidence of climate change in the light of uncertainty exemplified by the Mediterranean hot spot region. Glob Planet Chang 151:144–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.03.003
Planton S, Lionello P, Artale V, Aznar R, Carrillo A, Colin J, Congedi L, Dubois C, Elizalde A, Gualdi S, Hertig E, Jacobeit J, Jordà G, Li L, Mariotti A, Piani C, Ruti P, Sanchez-Gomez E, Sannino G, Sevault F, Somot S, Tsimplis M (2012) The climate of the Mediterranean region in future climate. In: Lionello P (ed) The Climate of the Mediterranean Region. From the Past to the Future. Elsevier (NETHERLANDS), projections, Amsterdam, pp 449–502. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-416042-2.00008-2
Poli P, Hersbach H, Dee DP, Berrisford P, Simmons AJ, Vitart F, Laloyaux P, Tan DGH, Peubey C, Thépaut JN, Trémolet Y, Hólm EV, Bonavita M, Isaksen L, Fisher M (2016) ERA-20C: an atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century. J Clim 29(11):4083–4097. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0556.1
Rivetti I, Fraschetti S, Lionello P, Zambianchi E, Boero F (2014) Global warming and mass mortalities of benthic invertebrates in the Mediterranean Sea. PLoS One 9(12):e115655. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115655
Ruti P, Somot S, Dubois C, Calmanti S, Ahrens B, Alias A, Aznar R, Bartholy J, Bastin S, Béranger K, Brauch J, Calvet JC, Carillo A, Decharme B, Dell’aquila A, Djurdjevic V, Drobinski P, Elizalde-Arellano A, Gaertner M, Galan P, Gallardo C, Giorgi F, Gualdi S, Harzallah A, Herrmann M, Jacob D, Khodayar S, Krichak S, Lebeaupin C, L’Heveder B, Li L, Liguro G, Lionello P, Onol B, Rajkovic B, Sannino G, Sevault F (2016) MED-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 97(7):1187–1208. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00176.1
Saadi S, Todorovic M, Tanasijevic L, Pereira LS, Pizzigalli C, Lionello P (2015) Climate change and Mediterranean agriculture: impacts on winter wheat and tomato crop evapotranspiration, irrigation requirements and yield. Agric Water Manag 147:103–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05.008
Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R, Prentice IC, Araújo MB, Arnell NW, Bondeau A, Bugmann H, Carter TR, Gracia CA, de la Vega-Leinert AC, Erhard M, Ewert F, Glendining M, House JI, Kankaanpää S, Klein RJ, Lavorel S, Lindner M, Metzger MJ, Meyer J, Mitchell TD, Reginster I, Rounsevell M, Sabaté S, Sitch S, Smith B, Smith J, Smith P, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Thuiller W, Tuck G, Zaehle S, Zierl B (2005) Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310(5752):1333–1337. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.2307/2285891
Tanasijevic L, Todorovic M, Pereira LS, Pizzigalli C, Lionello P (2014) Impacts of climate change on olive crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region. Agric Water Manag 144:54–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05.019
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Theil H (1950) A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis. In: Raj B, Koerts J (eds) Henri Theil’s Contributions to Economics and Econometrics. Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, vol 23. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 345–381. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2546-8_20
Ulbrich U, Lionello P, Belušić D, Jacobeit J, Knippertz P, Kuglitsch FG, Leckebusch GC, Luterbacher J, Maugeri M, Maheras P, Nissen KM, Pavan V, Pinto JG, Saaroni H, Seubert S, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, Ziv B (2012) Climate of the Mediterranean: synoptic patterns, temperature, precipitation, winds, and their extremes. In: Lionello P (ed) The Climate of the Mediterranean Region. From the Past to the Future. Elsevier (NETHERLANDS), Amsterdam, pp 301–346, ISBN:9780124160422. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-416042-2.00005-7
Ulbrich U, Xoplaki E, Dobricic S, García-Herrera R, Lionello P, Adani M, Baldi M, Barriopedro D, Coccimiglio P, Dalu G, Efthymiadis D, Gaetani M, Galati MB, Gimeno L, Goodess CM, Jones PD, Kuglitsch FG, Leckebusch GC, Luterbacher J, Marcos-Moreno M, Mariotti A, Nieto R, Nissen KM, Pettenuzzo D, Pinardi N, Pino C, Shaw AGP, Sousa P, Toreti A, Trigo RM, Tsimplis M (2013) Past and current climate changes in the Mediterranean region. In: Navarra A, Tubiana L (eds) Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 9–52. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_2
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Editor: Wolfgang Cramer.
Electronic supplementary material
ESM 1
(DOCX 3673 kb).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lionello, P., Scarascia, L. The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming. Reg Environ Change 18, 1481–1493 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1