Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 17, Issue 2, pp 367–377 | Cite as

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

  • Elin Röös
  • Bojana Bajželj
  • Pete Smith
  • Mikaela Patel
  • David Little
  • Tara Garnett
Original Article

Abstract

Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO2 in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.

Keywords

Land use Climate Food Dietary change Mitigation Protein 

Notes

Acknowledgments

Our thanks to the Future Agriculture initiative at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) for funding the development of the model used to perform the calculations.

Supplementary material

10113_2016_1013_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (366 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 365 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Elin Röös
    • 1
  • Bojana Bajželj
    • 2
  • Pete Smith
    • 3
  • Mikaela Patel
    • 4
  • David Little
    • 5
  • Tara Garnett
    • 1
  1. 1.Food Climate Research Network, Environmental Change InstituteOxford UniversityOxfordUK
  2. 2.Department of EngineeringUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
  3. 3.Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences and ClimateXChangeUniversity of AberdeenAberdeenUK
  4. 4.Department of Animal Nutrition and ManagementSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
  5. 5.Institute of AquacultureUniversity of StirlingStirlingUK

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