Advertisement

Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 16, Issue 6, pp 1685–1700 | Cite as

Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America

  • Iain BrownEmail author
  • Julia Martin-Ortega
  • Kerry Waylen
  • Kirsty Blackstock
Original Article

Abstract

Environmental change requires adaptive responses that are innovative, forward-looking and anticipatory, in order to meet goals for sustainability in socio-ecological systems. This implies transformative shifts in understanding as conceptualised by the idea of ‘double’- or ‘triple-loop learning’. Achieving this can be difficult as communities often rely on shorter-term coping mechanisms that purport to maintain the status quo. The use of participatory scenario planning to stimulate forward-looking social learning for adaptation was investigated through three contrasting community case studies on natural resource management in Latin America (in Mexico, Argentina and Colombia). Exploratory scenario narratives that synthesised local knowledge and future perceptions were used iteratively to define response options considered robust across multiple futures. Despite its intensive format, participants in each case agreed that scenario planning enabled a more systematic appraisal of the future. Scenarios facilitated innovation by providing scope to propose new types of responses and associated actions. Differences in local context meant that learning about future change developed in diverse ways, showing a need for a reflexive process. Reframing of key issues characteristic of double-loop learning did occur, albeit through different forms of interaction in each location. However, a shift towards transformative actions characteristic of triple-loop learning was less evident. Achieving this would appear to require ongoing use of scenarios to challenge social norms in light of changing drivers. Use of learning loops as a diagnostic to evaluate adaptive responses provided a useful reference framework although in practice both innovation and consolidative approaches can develop concurrently for responses to different issues.

Keywords

Socio-ecological systems Community-based adaptation Scenarios Triple-loop learning Social learning Latin America 

Notes

Acknowledgments

Research for the COMET-LA project received funding from the EU 7th Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013: Grant Agreement No. 282845) and was also partly funded by the Scottish Government. We acknowledge the invaluable work of local partners: Universidad Autonoma de Mexico, Estudios Rurales y Asesoria in Mexico, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana and Consejos Comunitarios de Alto y Medio Dagua and Bajo Calima in Colombia, Instituto Argentino de Oceanografia, Universidad Nacional del Sur and Aquamarina, in Argentina. The authors are grateful to all community members (Comaltepec, La Esperanza, and Zoyolapam in Mexico, Alto y Medio Dagua and Bajo Calima in Colombia and Monte Hermoso, Pehuen-co and Bahia Blanca in Argentina) and stakeholders in all three countries for their considerable contributions. Special thanks to Alejandra Cruz Bayer, Roberto Escalante Semerena, Maria Farah Quijano, Federico Ferrelli, Guillermo Fidalgo, Israel Hernández López, María Huamantinco Cisneros, Silvia London, Diana Maya Vélez, P. Ocampo-Díaz, Cesar Ortiz Guerrero, Juan Pascale, Gerardo Perillo, M. Piccolo, Lina Pinzón Martínez, Mara Rojas, Facundo Scordo, Valeria Vitale, Mariana Zilio. We thank two anonymous reviewers and Dr. Dominic Duckett for helpful advice on the manuscript. Project coordinator Maria del Mar Delgado provided sustained support.

References

  1. Amer M, Daim TU, Jetter A (2013) A review of scenario planning. Futures 46:23–40. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Argyris C, Schön DA (1978) Organizational learning: a theory of action perspective. Addison-Wesley, ReadingGoogle Scholar
  3. Armitage D, Marschke M, Plummer R (2008) Adaptive co-management and the paradox of learning. Glob Environ Change 18:86–98. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.07.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Ballard HL, Huntsinger L (2006) Salal harvester local ecological knowledge, harvest practices and understory management on the Olympic peninsula, Washington. Hum Ecol 34:529–547. doi: 10.1007/s10745-006-9048-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bankoff G (2004) The historical geography of disaster: ‘vulnerability’ and ‘local knowledge’ in western discourse. Earthscan, LondonGoogle Scholar
  6. Berkes F (2007) Community-based conservation in a globalized world. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104:15188–15193. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0702098104 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Berman R, Quinn C, Paavola J (2012) The role of institutions in the transformation of coping capacity to sustainable adaptive capacity. Environ Dev 2:86–100. doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2012.03.017 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bezold C (2010) Anticipatory democracy and aspirational futures. J Futures Stud 15:167–170Google Scholar
  9. Bohunovsky L, Jäger J, Omann I (2011) Participatory scenario development for integrated sustainability assessment. Reg Environ Change 11:271–284. doi: 10.1007/s10113-010-0143-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Börjeson L, Höjer M, Dreborg KH, Ekvall T, Finnveden G (2006) Scenario types and techniques: towards a user’s guide. Futures 38:723–739. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Bos JJ, Brown RR, Farrelly MA (2013) A design framework for creating social learning situations. Glob Environ Change 23:398–412. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Bridges G (2002) Grounding globalization: the prospects and perils of linking economic processes of globalization to environmental outcomes. Econ Geogr 78:361–386. doi: 10.1111/j.1944-8287.2002.tb00191.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Brown I, Castellazzi M (2014) Scenario analysis for regional decision making on sustainable multifunctional landscapes. Reg Environ Change 14:1357–1371. doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0579-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Brown I, Berry P, Everard M, Firbank L, Harrison P, Lundy L, Quine C, Rowan J, Wade R, Watts K (2015) Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: a stress-testing case study for the UK. Environ Sci Policy 52:61–73. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.05.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Burch S, Shaw A, Dale A, Robinson J (2014) Triggering transformative change: a development path approach to climate change response in communities. Clim Policy 14:467–487. doi: 10.1080/14693062.2014.876342 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Climo JJ, Cattell MG (2002) Social memory and history: anthropological perspectives. AltaMira Press, Walnut CreekGoogle Scholar
  17. Dovers S (2009) Normalizing adaptation. Glob Environ Change 19:4–6. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.06.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Eakin H, Lemos MC (2010) Institutions and change: the challenge of building adaptive capacity in Latin America. Glob Environ Change 20:1–3. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.08.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Ellis F (2000) Rural livelihoods and diversity in developing countries. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  20. Eriksen SH, Brown K, Kelly PM (2005) The dynamics of vulnerability: locating coping strategies in Kenya and Tanzania. Geogr J 171:287–305. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4959.2005.00174.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Escalante Semerena RI, Basurto Hernández S, Hernández López J, Marneau Acevedo AR (2014) Stakeholders’ visions and perspectives on the future from the Santiago Comaltepec case study in Mexico. http://www.comet-la.eu/images/comet_la/deliverebles/Deli_3.3.pdf
  22. Farah MA, Maya DL, Ortiz C, Ocampo N, Avendaño B, Pinzon L, Ramos P (2014) Stakeholders’ vision on perspectives for the future in the Colombia case study. http://www.comet-la.eu/images/comet_la/deliverebles/Deli_2.3.pdf
  23. Folke C, Colding J, Berkes F (2003) Synthesis: building resilience and adaptive capacity in social-ecological systems. In: Berkes F, Colding J, Folke C (eds) Navigating social-ecological systems: building resilience for complexity and change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  24. Fowles J (1978) Handbook of futures research. Greenwood Press, Santa BarbaraGoogle Scholar
  25. Gebresenbet F, Kefale A (2012) Traditional coping mechanism for climate change of pastoralists in South Omo, Ethiopia. Indian J Tradit Knowl 11:573–579Google Scholar
  26. Hoffman K, Centeno MA (2003) The lopsided continent: inequality in Latin America. Ann Rev Sociol 29:363–390. doi: 10.1146/annurev.soc.29.010202.100141 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Hunt DV, Lombardi DR, Atkinson S, Barber AR, Barnes M, Boyko CT, Brown J, Bryson J, Butler D, Caputo S, Caserio M, Coles R, Cooper R, Farmani R, Gaterell M, Hale J, Hales AC, Hewitt CN, Jankovic L, Jefferson I, Leach J, Mackenzie R, Memon FA, Sadler JP, Weingaertner C, Whyatt D, Rogers CDF (2012) Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability 4:740–772. doi: 10.3390/su4040740 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Kates RW, Travis WR, Wilbanks TJ (2012) Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109:7156–7161. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1115521109 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Maarleveld M, Dabgbégnon C (1999) Managing natural resources: a social learning perspective. Agric Hum Values 16:267–280. doi: 10.1023/A:1007559903438 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Marshall NA, Park SE, Adger WN, Brown K, Howden SM (2012) Transformational capacity and the influence of place and identity. Environ Res Lett 7:034022. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034022 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Mavhura E, Manyena SB, Collins AE, Manatsa D (2013) Indigenous knowledge, coping strategies and resilience to floods in Muzarabani, Zimbabwe. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 5:38–48. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.07.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Mengistu DK (2011) Farmers’ perception and knowledge on climate change and their coping strategies to the related hazards: case study from Adiha, central Tigray, Ethiopia. Agric Sci 2:138. doi: 10.4236/as.2011.22020 Google Scholar
  33. Milestad R, Svenfelt A, Dreborg KH (2014) Developing integrated explorative and normative scenarios: the case of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden. Futures 60:59–71. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2014.04.015 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Mistry J, Berardi A, Haynes L, Davis D, Xavier R, Andries J (2013) The role of social memory in natural resource management: insights from participatory video. Trans Inst Br Geogr 39:115–127. doi: 10.1111/tran.12010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Mistry J, Tschirhart C, Verwer C, Glastra R, Davis O, Jafferally D, Haynes L, Benjamin R, Albert G, Xavier R, Bovolo I, Berardi A (2014) Our common future? Cross-scalar scenario analysis for social-ecological sustainability of the Guiana Shield, South America. Environ Sci Policy 44:126–148. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.05.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Misztal B (2003) Theories of social remembering. McGraw-Hill International, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  37. Moser SC, Ekstrom JA (2010) A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:22026–22031. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1007887107 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Nazarea VD (1998) Cultural memory and biodiversity. Arizona University Press, TusconGoogle Scholar
  39. Nazarea VD (2006) Local knowledge and memory in biodiversity conservation. Annu Rev Anthropol 35:317–335. doi: 10.1146/annurev.anthro.35.081705.123252 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Nelson DR, Adger WN, Brown K (2007) Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. Annu Rev Environ Resour 32:395–419CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Nicholson-Cole SA (2005) Representing climate change futures: a critique on the use of images for visual communication. Comput Environ Urban 29:255–273. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2004.05.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Olick JK, Robbins J (1998) Social memory studies: from collective memory to the historical sociology of mnemonic practices. Annu Rev Sociol 24:105–140. doi: 10.1146/annurev.soc.24.1.105 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Olsson P, Folke C, Berkes F (2004) Adaptive co-management for building resilience in social–ecological systems. Environ Manage 34:75–90. doi: 10.1007/s00267-003-0101-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Ostrom E (2009) A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems. Science 325:419–422. doi: 10.1126/science.1172133 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Pahl-Wostl C (2009) A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes. Glob Environ Change 18:354–365. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.06.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Park SE, Marshall NA, Jakku E, Dowd AM, Howden SM, Mendham E, Fleming A (2012) Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation. Glob Environ Change 22:115–126. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Preston BL, Stafford-Smith M (2009) Framing vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment: discussion paper. CSIRO, CanberraGoogle Scholar
  48. Robinson J, Burch S, Talwar S, O’Shea M, Walsh M (2011) Envisioning sustainability: recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research. Technol Forecast Soc 78:756–768. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.12.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Rodima-Taylor D, Olwig MF, Chhetri N (2012) Adaptation as innovation, innovation as adaptation: an institutional approach to climate change. Appl Geogr 33:107–111. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.10.011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Rojas M, Zilio M, London S, Bustos L, Huamantinco Cisneros MA, Scordo F, Ferrelli F, Perillo GME, Piccolo MC, Vitale V, Bordino P, Berninsone L, Pascale JC (2014) Stakeholder visions and perspectives on the future from the Argentina case study. http://www.comet-la.eu/images/comet_la/deliverebles/Deli_4.3.pdf
  51. Rothman D (2008) A survey of environmental scenarios. In: Alcamo J (ed) Developments in integrated environmental assessment 2: environmental futures—the practice of environmental scenario analysis. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 37–65Google Scholar
  52. Scheffer M, Westley FR (2007) The evolutionary basis of rigidity: locks in cells, minds and society. Ecol Soc 12(2):36Google Scholar
  53. Shaw D, Scully J, Hart T (2014) The paradox of social resilience: how cognitive strategies and coping mechanisms attenuate and accentuate resilience. Glob Environ Change 25:194–203. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.01.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Tabara JD, Ilhan A (2008) Culture as trigger for sustainability transition in the water domain: the case of the Spanish water policy and the Ebro river basin. Reg Environ Change 8:59–71. doi: 10.1007/s10113-007-0043-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. van Aalst MK, Cannon T, Burton I (2008) Community level adaptation to climate change: the potential role of participatory community risk assessment. Glob Environ Change 18:165–179. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.06.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. van der Heijden K (2011) Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Wiley, New JerseyGoogle Scholar
  57. van Notten PWF, Sleegers AM, van Asselt MB (2005) The future shocks: on discontinuity and scenario development. Technol Forecast Soc 72:175–194. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2003.12.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Vervoort JM, Kok K, van Lammeren R, Veldkamp T (2010) Stepping into futures: exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social-ecological systems. Futures 42:604–616. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2010.04.031 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Waylen KA, Martin-Ortega J, Blackstock KL, Brown I, Avendaño Uribe B, Basurto Hernández S, Bertoni MB, Bustos ML, Cruz Bayer AX, Escalante Semerena RI, Farah Quijano M, Ferrelli F, Fidalgo G, Hernández López I, Huamantinco Cisneros MA, London S, Maya Vélez D, Ocampo-Díaz N, Ortiz Guerrero C, Pascale JC, Perillo GME, Piccolo MC, Pinzón Martínez L, Rojas M, Scordo F, Vitale V, Zilio M (in press) Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management: experiences from three countries in Latin America. Ecol SocGoogle Scholar
  60. Williams C, Fenton A, Huq S (2015) Knowledge and adaptive capacity. Nat Clim Change 5:82–83. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2476 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Young O, Berkhout F, Gallopin GC, Janssen MA, Ostrom E, van der Leeuw S (2006) The globalization of socio-ecological systems: an agenda for scientific research. Global Environ Change 16:304–316. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Iain Brown
    • 1
    Email author
  • Julia Martin-Ortega
    • 2
  • Kerry Waylen
    • 1
  • Kirsty Blackstock
    • 1
  1. 1.The James Hutton InstituteAberdeenUK
  2. 2.Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK

Personalised recommendations