Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 16, Issue 3, pp 629–642 | Cite as

Can we infer avalanche–climate relations using tree-ring data? Case studies in the French Alps

  • Romain Schläppy
  • Vincent Jomelli
  • Nicolas Eckert
  • Markus Stoffel
  • Delphine Grancher
  • Daniel Brunstein
  • Christophe Corona
  • Michaël Deschatres
Original Article

Abstract

Dendrogeomorphology is a powerful tool to determine past avalanche activity, but whether or not the obtained annually resolved chronologies are sufficiently detailed to infer avalanche–climate relationships (in terms of temporal resolution) remains an open question. In this work, avalanche activity is reconstructed in five paths of the French Alps and crossed with a set of snow and weather variables covering the period 1959–2009 on a monthly and annual (winter) basis. The variables which best explain avalanche activity are highlighted with an original variable selection procedure implemented within a logistic regression framework. The same approach is used for historical chronologies available for the same paths, as well as for the composite tree-ring/historical chronologies. Results suggest that dendrogeomorphic time series allow capturing the relations between snow or climate and avalanche occurrences to a certain extent. Weak links exist with annually resolved snow and weather variables and the different avalanche chronologies. On the contrary, clear statistical relations exist between these and monthly resolved snow and weather variables. In detail, tree rings seem to preferentially record avalanches triggered during cold winter storms with heavy precipitation. Conversely, historical avalanche data seem to contain a majority of events that were released later in the season and during episodes of strong positive temperature anomalies.

Keywords

Dendrogeomorphology Snow avalanche Avalanche–climate relations Logistic regression Hazard assessment French Alps 

Supplementary material

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Supplementary material 1 (PDF 8 kb)
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Supplementary material 5 (PDF 212 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Romain Schläppy
    • 1
  • Vincent Jomelli
    • 1
  • Nicolas Eckert
    • 2
  • Markus Stoffel
    • 3
    • 4
  • Delphine Grancher
    • 1
  • Daniel Brunstein
    • 1
  • Christophe Corona
    • 3
    • 5
  • Michaël Deschatres
    • 2
  1. 1.Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, UMR 8591 CNRSUniversité Paris 1 Panthéon-SorbonneMeudon CedexFrance
  2. 2.IRSTEAUR ETGR Érosion Torrentielle Neige et Avalanches/Université Grenoble AlpesSt-Martin-d’Hères CedexFrance
  3. 3.Dendrolab.ch, Institute of Geological SciencesUniversity of BerneBerneSwitzerland
  4. 4.Climatic Change and Climate Impacts, Institute for Environmental SciencesUniversity of GenevaCarougeSwitzerland
  5. 5.Laboratoire de Géographie Physique et Environnementale, UMR 6042 CNRSUniversité Blaise Pascal Clermont-Ferrand 2Clermont-Ferrand Cedex 1France

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