Integrating social–ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea
- 792 Downloads
A major gap exists in integrating climate projections and social–ecological vulnerability analyses at scales that matter, which has affected local-scale adaptation planning and actions to date. We address this gap by providing a novel methodology that integrates information on: (i) the expected future climate, including climate-related extreme events, at the village level; (ii) an ecological assessment of the impacts of these climate forecasts on coral reefs; and (iii) the social adaptive capacity of the artisanal fishers, to create an integrated vulnerability assessment on coastal communities in five villages in Papua New Guinea. We show that, despite relatively proximate geographies, there are substantial differences in both the predicted extreme rainfall and temperature events and the social adaptive capacity among the five fishing-dependent communities, meaning that they have likely different vulnerabilities to future climate change. Our methodology shows that it is possible to capture social information and integrate this with climate and ecological modeling in ways that are best suited to address the impacts of climate-mediated environmental changes currently underway across different scales.
KeywordsClimate change Adaptation planning Socioecological vulnerability Coral reef fisheries Papua New Guinea
We thank AUSAID and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur and Tiffany Foundation for supporting this work through WCS. Ross Sinclair, the former director of the WCS PNG program, recognized the need for this type of science, and we also thank the WCS-PNG field assistant’s for their help with the social surveys.
- Brunckhorst D, Reeve I, Morley P et al (2011) Hunter & central coasts New South Wales—vulnerability to climate change impacts. Report to the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, AustraliaGoogle Scholar
- Carrier G (1982) Fishing practices on Ponam Island (Manus Province, Papua New Guinea). Anthropos 77:904–915Google Scholar
- Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Qin SSD, Chen MZ, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis contribution of working group i to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Cinner J (2005) Socioeconomic factors influencing customary marine tenure in the Indo-Pacific. Ecol Soc 10:36Google Scholar
- Dolan AH, Walker IJ (2006) Understanding vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change related risks. J Coastal Res 39:316–1323Google Scholar
- FAO (2000) The state of food and agriculture. FAO Agriculture Series Version: 32Google Scholar
- Foale S (2006) Is coral reef conservation possible without science education in Melanesia? Is science education possible without development? Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Canberra. The Australian National University. Accessed 30 April 2008Google Scholar
- IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the 4th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), p 996Google Scholar
- Kliver M (2008) BBC news: mangrove loss “Put Burma at risk” Available, at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7385315.stm Accessed on 20 June 2008
- Rauwolf P, Balke T, De Vos M (2013) Modelling normative awareness: first considerations, conference proceedings, AISB 2013, April 3rd–5th 2013. Exeter, UKGoogle Scholar
- Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK et al (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Intergovernmental panel on climate change, working group I contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) Cambridge University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar