Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 16, Issue 3, pp 759–775 | Cite as

Shifting drivers and static baselines in environmental governance: challenges for improving and proving water quality outcomes

  • Sean GillonEmail author
  • Eric G. Booth
  • Adena R. Rissman
Original Article


Understanding the conditions that enable or constrain success in environmental governance is crucial for developing effective interventions and adapting approaches. Efforts to achieve and assess success in environmental quality improvement are often impeded by changes in conditions that drive outcomes but lie outside the scope of intervention and monitoring. We document how long-term changes in land use, agriculture, and climate act as non-stationary, shifting drivers of change that combine to render water quality management interventions less effective and increasingly difficult to assess. Focusing on the Yahara River watershed of south-central Wisconsin, USA, we ask how baselines influence program modeling, monitoring, and evaluation, as well as adaptation in governance approach. Through historical trend, GIS, and policy and qualitative data analyses, we find that changes in long-term land use and precipitation pattern dynamics exert tremendous pressure on water quality outcomes but are not captured in snapshot baseline assessments used in management planning or evaluation. Specifically, agricultural sector change related to the intensification of milk and manure production is increasingly challenging to address through best management practices, and flashier precipitation associated with climate change makes it difficult to achieve goals and establish a causal connection between management interventions and outcomes. Analysis of shifting drivers demonstrates challenges facing environmental governance in the context of climatic and social–ecological change. We suggest that goal setting, program design, and evaluation incorporate new modes of analysis that address slowly changing and external determinants of success.


Environmental governance Shifting drivers Water quality Climate change Land use change Agricultural intensification 



This work is supported by a National Science Foundation (NSF) Water Sustainability and Climate grant to the University of Wisconsin–Madison (DEB-1038759), as well as a NSF North Temperate Lakes Long Term Ecological Research (NTL-LTER) grant (DEB-0832652). We thank Chaoyi Chang, Catherine Harris, Molly Lloyd, and Zack Butzler for research assistance. We appreciate insightful conversations with Steve Carpenter, Chris Kucharik, Corinna Gries, Steve Loheide, Monica Turner, and Chloe Wardropper. Thanks to the University of Wisconsin–Madison’s NTL-LTER and Robinson Map Library, the Dane County Land and Water Resources Department, the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission, the Dane County Lakes and Watershed Commission, the US Geological Survey, and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources for data contributions and their ongoing work.

Supplementary material

10113_2015_787_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (3.3 mb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 3414 kb)


  1. Armitage D, Marschke M, Plummer R (2008) Adaptive co-management and the paradox of learning. Glob Environ Change Hum Policy Dimens 18(1):86–98. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.07.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Baker JM, Griffis TJ, Ochsner TE (2012) Coupling landscape water storage and supplemental irrigation to increase productivity and improve environmental stewardship in the U.S. Midwest. Water Resour Res. doi: 10.1029/2011WR011780 Google Scholar
  3. Barry J, Clark W, Kiefer F, Laufenberg J, Tallard E, Boulding R, Vigon B, Anderson M (1975) Report of the subcommittee on rural runoff control. In report of the Dane County Advisory Council for Lake Quality Improvement: A Framework for Lake Management. Dane County, WIGoogle Scholar
  4. Bechmann M, Deelstra J, Stalnacke P, Eggestad HO, Oygarden L, Pengerud A (2008) Monitoring catchment scale agricultural pollution in Norway: policy instruments, implementation of mitigation methods and trends in nutrient and sediment losses. Environ Sci Policy 11(2):102–114. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2007.10.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bennett EM, Reed-Andersen T, Houser JN, Gabriel JR, Carpenter SR (1999) A phosphorus budget for the Lake Mendota watershed. Ecosystems 2(1):69–75. doi: 10.1007/s100219900059 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Caraco NF (2001) Human impact on erodable phosphorus and eutrophication: a global perspective. Bioscience 51(3):227–234. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0227:Hioepa]2.0.Co;2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Clayton MK (2005) Soil phosphorus variability: scale-dependence in an urbanizing agricultural landscape. Landsc Ecol 20(4):389–400. doi: 10.1007/s10980-004-3158-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bernard HR (2006) Research methods in anthropology: qualitative and quantitative approaches, 4th edn. AltaMira Press, LanhamGoogle Scholar
  9. Betz CR (ed) (2000) Nonpoint source control plan for the Lake Mendota priority watershed project, WT-536-00-REV. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Dane County Land Conservation Department and Columbia County Land Conservation Department, Madison, WIGoogle Scholar
  10. Cabot PE, Bowen SK, Nowak R (2004) Manure management in urbanizing settings. J Soil Water Conserv 59(6):235–243Google Scholar
  11. Cadmus Group (2011) Total maximum daily loads for total phosphorus and total suspended solids in the Rock River basin. Prepared for US Environmental Protection Agency, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Madison, WI.
  12. Campbell RA (2002) A narrative analysis of success and failure in environmental remediation—the case of incineration at the Sydney tar ponds. Organ Environ 15(3):259–277. doi: 10.1177/1086026602153002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Campbell LM, Gray NJ, Hazen EL, Shackeroff JM (2009) Beyond baselines: rethinking priorities for ocean conservation. Ecol Soc 14(1):14Google Scholar
  14. Carpenter SR (2005) Eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems: bistability and soil phosphorus. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102(29):10002–10005. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0503959102 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Carpenter S, Lathrop R (2013) Phosphorus loading, transport and concentrations in a lake chain: a probabilistic model to compare management options. Aquat Sci 1–10. doi: 10.1007/s00027-013-0324-5
  16. Carpenter SR, Lathrop RC, Nowak P, Bennett EM, Reed T, Soranno PA (2006) The ongoing experiment: restoration of Lake Mendota and its watershed. In: Magnuson JJ, Kratz TK, Benson BJ (eds) Long-term dynamics of lakes in the landscape. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 236–256Google Scholar
  17. Carpenter SR, Booth EG, Kucharik CJ, Lathrop RC (2014) Extreme daily loads: role in annual phosphorus input to a north temperate lake. Aquatic Sci 77(1):1–9. doi: 10.1007/s00027-014-0364-5 Google Scholar
  18. Carpenter SR, Booth EG, Gillon S, Kucharik C, Loheide S, Mase AS, Motew M, Qiu J, Rissman AR, Seifert J, Soylu E, Turner MG, Wardropper CB Plausible futures of a socio-ecological system: Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA. Ecol Soc (in press)Google Scholar
  19. Cieslewicz D (2013a) Can we save our lakes? The Isthmus, 19 April, Madison, WI. Accessed 25 June 2013
  20. Cieslewicz D (2013b) Who needs to get the credit for cleaner lakes? The Isthmus, 7 May, Madison, WI. Accessed 24 July 2013
  21. Clark JS, Carpenter SR, Barber M, Collins S, Dobson A, Foley JA, Lodge DM, Pascual M, Pielke R, Pizer W, Pringle C, Reid WV, Rose KA, Sala O, Schlesinger WH, Wall DH, Wear D (2001) Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 293(5530):657–660. doi: 10.1126/science.293.5530.657 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Cochrane W (1979) The development of American agriculture: a historical analysis. University of Minnesota Press, MinneapolisGoogle Scholar
  23. Converse DL (2012) Yahara CLEAN strategic action plan for phosphorus reduction. Report for The Clean Lakes Alliance, MadisonGoogle Scholar
  24. Cordell D, Drangert JO, White S (2009) The story of phosphorus: global food security and food for thought. Glob Environ Change Hum Policy Dimens 19(2):292–305. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.10.009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Craig RK (2010) “Stationarity Is Dead”—long live transformation: five principles for climate adaptation law. Harv Environ Law Rev 34(1):9–73Google Scholar
  26. Cross JA (2006) Restructuring America’s dairy farms. Geogr Rev 96(1):1–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Cross JA (2012) Changing patterns of cheese manufacturing in America’s Dairyland. Geogr Rev 102(4):525–538CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Dahl TE (1990) Wetland losses in the United States, 1780s to 1980s. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  29. Davie DK, Lant CL (1994) The effect of CRP enrollment on sediment loads in two Southern Illinois streams. J Soil Water Conserv 49(4):407–412Google Scholar
  30. DCRLMC (1988) Yahara River lakes management structure and issues. Dane County Rivers and Lakes Management Committee, MadisonGoogle Scholar
  31. Dietz T, Ostrom E, Stern PC (2003) The struggle to govern the commons. Science 302(5652):1907–1912. doi: 10.1126/science.1091015 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Duarte CM, Conley DJ, Carstensen J, Sanchez-Camacho M (2009) Return to Neverland: shifting baselines affect eutrophication restoration targets. Estuaries Coasts 32(1):29–36. doi: 10.1007/s12237-008-9111-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Edwards WM, Owens LB (1991) Large storm effects on total soil-erosion. J Soil Water Conserv 46(1):75–78Google Scholar
  34. Fitzsimmons M (1986) The new industrial agriculture—the regional-integration of specialty crop production. Econ Geogr 62(4):334–353. doi: 10.2307/143829 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Flannery JJ (1949) The Madison lakes problem. MA thesis. University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WIGoogle Scholar
  36. Forsyth T (2003) Critical political ecology. Routledge, LondonGoogle Scholar
  37. Galloway GE (2011) If stationarity is dead, what do we do now? J Am Water Resour Assoc 47(3):563–570. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00550.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Geisler C, Lyson T (1991) The cumulative impact of dairy industry restructuring. Bioscience 41(8):560–567CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Genskow KD, Betz CR (2012) Farm practices in the Lake Mendota watershed: a comparative analysis of 1996 and 2011. Prepared for the Dane County Office of Lakes and Watersheds, Land and Water Resources Department. University of Wisconsin Extension, Environmental Resources CenterGoogle Scholar
  40. Goodman D, Sorj B, Wilkinson J (1987) From farming to biotechnology. Basil Blackwell, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  41. Hamilton SK (2012) Biogeochemical time lags may delay responses of streams to ecological restoration. Freshw Biol 57:43–57. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02685.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Harris GP, Heathwaite AL (2012) Why is achieving good ecological outcomes in rivers so difficult? Freshw Biol 57:91–107. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02640.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Haygarth PM, Page TJC, Beven KJ, Freer J, Joynes A, Butler P, Wood GA, Owens PN (2012) Scaling up the phosphorus signal from soil hillslopes to headwater catchments. Freshw Biol 57:7–25. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2012.02748.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (2002) Statistical methods in water resources. Techniques of water-resources investigations, Book 4, chapter A3. U.S. Geological Survey, p 522.
  45. Herrick C, Sarewitz D (2000) Ex post evaluation: a more effective role for scientific assessments in environmental policy. Sci Technol Hum Values 25(3):309–331CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Herrick JE, Duniway MC, Pyke DA, Bestelmeyer BT, Wills SA, Brown JR, Karl JW, Havstad KM (2012) A holistic strategy for adaptive land management. J Soil Water Conserv 67(4):105a–113a. doi: 10.2489/jswc.67.4.105A CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Hibbard BH (1904) The history of agriculture in Dane County, Wisconsin. Bulletin of the University of Wisconsin, No. 101, Economics and Political Science Series, Vol. 1, No. 2. University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, pp 67–214.
  48. Hirsch RM (2011) A perspective on nonstationarity and water management. J Am Water Resour Assoc 47(3):436–446. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00539.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Holmes KJ, Graham JA, McKone T, Whipple C (2009) Regulatory models and the environment: practice, pitfalls and prospects. Risk Anal 29(2):159–170. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01186.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Jarvie HP, Sharpley AN, Withers PJA, Scott JT, Haggard BE, Neal C (2013) Phosphorus mitigation to control river eutrophication: murky waters, inconvenient truths, and “Postnormal” science. J Environ Qual 42(2):295–304. doi: 10.2134/Jeq2012.0085 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Johnson TE, Butcher JB, Parker A, Weaver CP (2012) Investigating the sensitivity of U.S. streamflow and water quality to climate change: U.S. EPA Global Change Research Program’s 20 Watersheds Project. J Water Resour Plan Manag ASCE 138(5):453–464. doi: 10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000175
  52. Joosse PJ, Baker DB (2011) Context for re-evaluating agricultural source phosphorus loadings to the Great Lakes. Can J Soil Sci 91(3):317–327. doi: 10.4141/Cjss10005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Kara EL, Heimerl C, Killpack T, Van de Bogert MC, Yoshida H, Carpenter SR (2012) Assessing a decade of phosphorus management in the Lake Mendota, Wisconsin watershed and scenarios for enhanced phosphorus management. Aquat Sci 74(2):241–253. doi: 10.1007/s00027-011-0215-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Karlen DL, Rosek MJ, Gardner JC, Allan DL, Alms MJ, Bezdicek DF, Flock M, Huggins DR, Miller BS, Staben ML (1999) Conservation reserve program effects on soil quality indicators. J Soil Water Conserv 54(1):439–444Google Scholar
  55. Kellogg RL, Lander CH, Moffitt DC, Gollehon N (2000) Manure nutrients relative to the capacity of cropland and pastureland to assimilate nutrients: spatial and temporal trends for the United States. Report Number nps00-0579. Natural Resources Conservation Service, Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture.
  56. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, LondonGoogle Scholar
  57. Kriegl T, McNair R (2005) Pastures of plenty: financial performance of Wisconsin grazing dairy farms. Center for Integrated Agricultural Systems, University of Wisconsin-MadisonGoogle Scholar
  58. Kronvang B, Jeppesen E, Conley DJ, Sondergaard M, Larsen SE, Ovesen NB, Carstensen J (2005) Nutrient pressures and ecological responses to nutrient loading reductions in Danish streams, lakes and coastal waters. J Hydrol 304(1–4):274–288. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.07.035 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Krug WR, Goddard GL (1986) Effects of urbanization on streamflow, sediment loads, and channel morphology in Pheasant Branch Basin near Middleton, Wisconsin. Water-Resources Investigations Report. U.S. Geological Survey, pp. vi, 82 p: ill., maps;28 cm.
  60. Kucharik CJ, Serbin SP, Vavrus S, Hopkins EJ, Motew MM (2010) Patterns of climate change across Wisconsin from 1950 to 2006. Phys Geogr 31(1):1–28. doi: 10.2747/0272-3646.31.1.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Kunkel KE, Karl TR, Easterling DR (2007) A Monte Carlo assessment of uncertainties in heavy precipitation frequency variations. J Hydrometeorol 8(5):1152–1160. doi: 10.1175/jhm632.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Lackey JB, Sawyer CN (1945) Plankton productivity of certain south-eastern Wisconsin lakes as related to fertilization: I. Surveys. Sew Works J 17(3):573–585Google Scholar
  63. Lathrop RC (1992) Nutrient loadings, lake nutrients, and water clarity. In: Kitchell JF (ed) Food web management: a case study of Lake Mendota, Wisconsin. Springer, New York, pp 71–98Google Scholar
  64. Lathrop RC (1998) Water clarity responses to phosphorus and Daphnia in Lake Mendota. PhD thesis. University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WIGoogle Scholar
  65. Lathrop RC (2007) Perspectives on the eutrophication of the Yahara lakes. Lake Reserv Manag 23(4):345–365CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Lathrop RC, Carpenter SR (2011) Phosphorus loading and lake response analyses for the Yahara Lakes, unpublished report prepared for the Yahara CLEAN project. University of Wisconsin-Madison.
  67. Lathrop RC, Carpenter SR (2014) Water quality implications from three decades of phosphorus loads and trophic dynamics in the Yahara chain of lakes. Inland Waters 4(1):1–14. doi: 10.5268/iw-4.1.680 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. MacDonald JM, McBride WD (2009) The transformation of U.S. livestock agriculture scale, efficiency, and risks. Economic Information Bulletin Number 43. Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture.
  69. MacDonald JM, O’Donoghue EJ, McBride WD, Nehring RF, Sandretto CL, Mosheim R (2007) Profits, costs, and the changing structure of dairy farming. Economic Research Report Number 47. Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture.
  70. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259. doi: 10.2307/1907187 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. MARS (2011) Yahara CLEAN non-point source modeling report. submitted to Dane County Department of Land and Water Resources. Montgomery Associates Resource Solutions LLC, Cottage Grove, WIGoogle Scholar
  72. Michalak AM, Anderson EJ, Beletsky D, Boland S, Bosch NS, Bridgeman TB, Chaffin JD, Cho K, Confesor R, Daloglu I, DePinto JV, Evans MA, Fahnenstiel GL, He L, Ho JC, Jenkins L, Johengen TH, Kuo KC, LaPorte E, Liu X, McWilliams MR, Moore MR, Posselt DJ, Richards RP, Scavia D, Steiner AL, Verhamme E, Wright DM, Zagorski MA (2013) Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110(16):6448–6452CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Miller M (1991) An evaluation of water quality in the Sixmile–Pheasant Branch Creeks priority watershed. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, MadisonGoogle Scholar
  74. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Climate change—stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319(5863):573–574. doi: 10.1126/science.1151915 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Mitsch WJ, Gosselink JG (2000) Wetlands, 3rd edn. Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  76. Mollenhoff DV (2003) Madison, a history of the formative years. University of Wisconsin Press, MadisonGoogle Scholar
  77. Nennich TD, Harrison JH, VanWieringen LM, Meyer D, Heinrichs AJ, Weiss WP, St-Pierre NR, Kincaid RL, Davidson DL, Block E (2005) Prediction of manure and nutrient excretion from dairy cattle. J Dairy Sci 88(10):3721–3733CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. NSTC (2013) National strategy for civil earth observations. National Science and Technology Council, Executive Office of the President of the United States, Washington, DC.
  79. O’Brien K (2012) Global environmental change II: from adaptation to deliberate transformation. Prog Hum Geogr 36(5):667–676. doi: 10.1177/0309132511425767 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Olsen JR, Kiang JE, Waskom RM (2010) Workshop on nonstationarity, hydrologic frequency analysis, and water management. Colorado Water Institute Information Series 109, Boulder, CO.
  81. Ostrom E (2009) A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social–ecological systems. Science 325(5939):419–422. doi: 10.1126/science.1172133 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Owens DW, Jopke P, Hall DW, Balousek J, Roa A (2000) Soil erosion from two small construction sites, Dane County, Wisconsin. Fact Sheet. U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, p 4.
  83. Pauly D (1995) Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries. Trends Ecol Evol 10(10):430. doi: 10.1016/S0169-5347(00)89171-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Peterson GD, Cumming GS, Carpenter SR (2003) Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conserv Biol 17(2):358–366. doi: 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Peterson TC, Zhang X, Brunet-India M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2008) Changes in North American extremes derived from daily weather data. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi: 10.1029/2007jd009453 Google Scholar
  86. Polasky S, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Keeler B (2011) Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecol Evol 26(8):398–404. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2011.04.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. Pryor SC, Howe JA, Kunkel KE (2009) How spatially coherent and statistically robust are temporal changes in extreme precipitation in the contiguous USA? Int J Climatol 29(1):31–45. doi: 10.1002/joc.1696 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Qian T, Dai A, Trenberth KE (2007) Hydroclimatic trends in the Mississippi River basin from 1948 to 2004. J Clim 20(18):4599–4614CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Radcliffe DE, Freer J, Schoumans O (2009) Diffuse phosphorus models in the United States and Europe: their usages, scales, and uncertainties. J Environ Qual 38(5):1956–1967. doi: 10.2134/Jeq2008.0060 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Reckhow KH, Norris PE, Budell RJ, Di Toro DM, Galloway JN, Greening H, Sharpley AN, Shirmhhammadi A, Stacey PE (2011) Achieving nutrient and sediment reduction goals in the Chesapeake bay: an evaluation of program strategies and implementation. The National Academies PressGoogle Scholar
  91. Rissman AR, Carpenter SR (in press) Progress on nonpoint pollution: barriers and opportunities. DaedalusGoogle Scholar
  92. Rogers JS, Potter KW, Hoffman AR, Hoopes JA, Wu CH, Armstrong DE (2009) Hydrologic and water quality functions of a disturbed wetland in an agricultural setting. J Am Water Resour Assoc 45(3):628–640. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00311.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Santelmann MV, White D, Freemark K, Nassauer JI, Eilers JM, Vaché KB, Danielson BJ, Corry RC, Clark ME, Polasky S, Cruse RM, Sifneos J, Rustigian H, Coiner C, Wu J, Debinski D (2004) Assessing alternative futures for agriculture in Iowa, U.S.A. Landsc Ecol 19:357–374CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  94. Secchi S, Gassman PW, Williams JR, Babcock BA (2009) Corn-based ethanol production and environmental quality: a case of lowa and the conservation reserve program. Environ Manage 44(4):732–744. doi: 10.1007/s00267-009-9365-x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Sharpley AN, Kleinman PJA, Jordan P, Bergstrom L, Allen AL (2009) Evaluating the success of phosphorus management from field to watershed. J Environ Qual 38(5):1981–1988. doi: 10.2134/Jeq2008.0056 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Sharpley A, Jarvie HP, Buda A, May L, Spears B, Kleinman P (2013) Phosphorus legacy: overcoming the effects of past management practices to mitigate future water quality impairment. J Environ Qual 42(5):1308–1326. doi: 10.2134/jeq2013.03.0098 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  97. Strand Associates (2013) Yahara CLEAN engineering report, prepared for Clean Lakes Alliance. Madison, WI, p 358.
  98. Stuart D, Gillon S (2013) Scaling up to address new challenges to conservation on US farmland. Land Use Policy 31:223–236. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.07.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47(1–2):123–138. doi: 10.3354/cr00953 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. USDA (2013) Soil survey staff, natural resources conservation service, United States Department of Agriculture. Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database for Columbia, Dane, and Rock counties, Wisconsin. Accessed 22 Sept 2011
  101. Villarini G, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Krajewski WF (2011) On the frequency of heavy rainfall for the Midwest of the United States. J Hydrol 400(1–2):103–120. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.027 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. Villarini G, Smith JA, Vecchi GA (2013) Changing frequency of heavy rainfall over the central United States. J Clim 26(1):351–357. doi: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00043.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  103. Wagner W, Fisher E, Pascual P (2011) Misunderstanding models in environmental and public health regulation. Land Use Environ Law Rev 42:293–356Google Scholar
  104. Wright DJ, Wang SW (2011) The emergence of spatial cyberinfrastructure. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(14):5488–5491. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1103051108 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. Wright CK, Wimberly MC (2013) Recent land use change in the Western Corn Belt threatens grasslands and wetlands. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(10):4134–4139. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1215404110 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  106. Wardropper CB, Chang C, Rissman AR (2015) Fragmented water quality governance: constraints to spatial targeting for nutrient reduction in a Midwestern USA watershed. Landsc Urban Plan 137:64–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  107. Yahara CLEAN (2010) A CLEAN future for the Yahara Lakes: solutions for tomorrow, starting today. submitted to Yahara CLEAN MOU signatories and Dane County Lakes and Watershed Commission, Madison, WI.
  108. Young OR (1999) The effectiveness of international environmental regimes: causal connections and behavioral mechanisms. MIT Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  109. Zedler JB, Potter KW (2008) Southern Wisconsin’s Herbaceous Wetlands: their recent history and precarious future. In: Waller DM, Rooney TP (eds) The vanishing present: Wisconsin’s changing lands, waters, and wildlife. University of Chicago Press, ChicagoGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sean Gillon
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Eric G. Booth
    • 3
    • 4
  • Adena R. Rissman
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Food Systems and SocietyMarylhurst UniversityMarylhurstUSA
  2. 2.Department of Forest and Wildlife EcologyUniversity of Wisconsin–MadisonMadisonUSA
  3. 3.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Wisconsin–MadisonMadisonUSA
  4. 4.Department of AgronomyUniversity of Wisconsin–MadisonMadisonUSA

Personalised recommendations