Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 16, Issue 2, pp 527–541 | Cite as

Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution

  • Gerrit Hansen
  • Dáithí Stone
  • Maximilian Auffhammer
  • Christian Huggel
  • Wolfgang Cramer
Original Article

Abstract

Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.

Keywords

Observed impacts of climate change Impact detection Attribution Human and managed systems Multiple drivers 

References

  1. Adelekan IO (2010) Vulnerability of poor urban coastal communities to flooding in Lagos, Nigeria. Environ Urban 22:433–450. doi:10.1177/0956247810380141 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alexander LV, Arblaster JM (2009) Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. Int J Climatol 29:417–435. doi:10.1002/joc CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Allen M, Pall P, Stone D, Stott P, Frame D, Min SK, Nozawa T, Yukimoto S (2007) Scientific challenges in the attribution of harm to human influence on climate. Univ PA Law Rev 155(6):1353–1400Google Scholar
  4. Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Kitzberger T, Rigling A, Breshears DD, Hogg EH, Gonzalez P, Fensham R, Zhang Z, Castro J, Demidova N, Lim J, Allard G, Running SW, Semerci A, Cobb N (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manage 259:660–684. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Asseng S, Travasso MI, Ludwig F, Magrin GO (2012) Has climate change opened new opportunities for wheat cropping in Argentina? Clim Change 117:181–196. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0553-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Baldi G, Paruelo JM (2008) Land-use and land cover dynamics in South American Temperate Grasslands. Ecol Soc 13:6Google Scholar
  7. Barnett TP, Hasselmann K, Chelliah M, Delworth T, Hegerl G, Jones PD, Rasmusson E, Roeckner E, Ropelewski C, Santer B, Tett S (1999) Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change : a Status Report. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:2631–2659. doi:10.1175/1520-0477 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Hidalgo HG, Bonfils C, Santer BD, Das T, Bala G, Wood AW, Nozawa T, Mirin AA, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD (2008) Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 319:1080–1083. doi:10.1126/science.1152538 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Barros VR (2010) El cambio climático en Argentina (Chapter 3). Agro y Ambient. Una agenda Compart. para el Desarro. sustentable. Foro de la Cadena Agroindustrial Argentina, Buenos Aires, Argentina, p 35Google Scholar
  10. Battisti A, Stastny M, Netherer S, Robinet C, Schopf A, Roques A, Larsson S (2005) Expansion of geographic range in the pine processionary moth caused by increased winter temperatures. Ecol Appl 15:2084–2096. doi:10.1890/04-1903 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Biasutti M (2013) Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive. J Geophys Res 118:1613–1623. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50206 Google Scholar
  12. Bindoff NL, Stott PA, AchutaRao KM, Allen MR, Gillett N, Gutzler D, Hansingo K, Hegerl G, Hu Y, Jain S, Mokhov II, Overland J, Perlwitz J, Sebbari R, Zhang X (2013) Detection and attribution of climate change: from Global to Regional. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  13. Bouwer LM (2011) Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:39–46. doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Brink AB, Eva HD (2009) Monitoring 25 years of land cover change dynamics in Africa: a sample based remote sensing approach. Appl Geogr 29:501–512. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.004
  15. Brisson N, Gate P, Gouache D, Charmet G, Oury FX, Huard F (2010) Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for France. Field Crop Res 119:201–212. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2010.07.012 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Butt A, Buxton M (2009) Peri-urban growth, planning and bushfire in the Melbourne city-region. State of Australian Cities Conference, Perth, WA. Australian Sustainable Cities and Regions Network (ASCRN), pp 1–14Google Scholar
  17. Buxton M, Haynes R, Mercer D, Butt A (2011) Vulnerability to Bushfire Risk at Melbourne’s Urban Fringe: the failure of regulatory land use planning. Geogr Res 49:1–12. doi:10.1111/j.1745-5871.2010.00670.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Chen K, McAneney J (2004) Quantifying bushfire penetration into urban areas in Australia. Geophys Res Lett 31:L12212. doi:10.1029/2004GL020244 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Cheung WWL, Watson R, Pauly D (2013) Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch. Nature 497:365–368. doi:10.1038/nature12156 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Christidis N, Donaldson GC, Stott PA (2010) Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales. Clim Change 102:539–553. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9774-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Church JA, White NJ (2011) Sea-level rise from the late 19th century to the early 21st century. Surv Geophys 32:585–602. doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Clarke H, Lucas C, Smith P (2013) Changes in Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2010. Int J Climatol 33:931–944. doi:10.1002/joc.3480 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Crain CM, Kroeker K, Halpern BS (2008) Interactive and cumulative effects of multiple human stressors in marine systems. Ecol Lett 11:1304–1315. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01253.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Cramer W, Yohe GW, Auffhammer M, Huggel C, Molau U, Assunção Faus da Silva Dias M, Solow A, Stone D, Tibig L (2014) Detection and attribution of observed impacts. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 979–1037Google Scholar
  25. Crompton RP, McAneney KJ (2008) Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967–2006. Environ Sci Policy 11:371–378. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2008.01.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Crompton RRP, McAneney KJ, Chen K, Pielke RA, Haynes K (2010) Influence of location, population, and climate on building damage and fatalities due to Australian Bushfire: 1925–2009. Weather Clim Soc 2:300–310. doi:10.1175/2010WCAS1063.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Crompton RP, McAneney KJ, Chen K, Pielke RA, Haynes K (2011) Reply. Weather Clim Soc 3:63–66. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00002.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Darling ES, Cote IM (2008) Quantifying the evidence for ecological synergies. Ecol Lett 11:1278–1286. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01243.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Dossou KMR, Glehouenou-Dossou B (2007) The vulnerability to climate change of Cotonou (Benin): the rise in sea level. Environ Urban 19:65–79. doi:10.1177/0956247807077149 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Douglas I, Alam K, Maghenda MA, Mcdonnell Y, Mclean L, Campbell J (2008) Unjust waters. Climate change, flooding and the urban poor in Africa. Environ Urban 20:187–205. doi:10.1177/0956247808089156 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Doyle ME, Saurral RI, Barros VR (2011) Trends in the distributions of aggregated monthly precipitation over the La Plata Basin. Int J Climatol 32:2149–2162. doi:10.1002/joc.2429 Google Scholar
  32. Ericson J, Vorosmarty C, Dingman S, Ward L, Meybeck M (2006) Effective sea-level rise and deltas: causes of change and human dimension implications. Glob Planet Change 50:63–82. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.07.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Fashae OA, Onafeso OD (2011) Impact of climate change on sea level rise in Lagos, Nigeria. Int J Remote Sens 32:9811–9819. doi:10.1080/01431161.2011.581709 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Gillett NP (2004) Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophys Res Lett 31:L18211. doi:10.1029/2004GL020876 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Giorgi F (2002) Variability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the twentieth century. Part I: observations. Clim Dyn 18:675–691. doi:10.1007/s00382-001-0205-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Gonzalez P, Tucker CJ, Sy H (2012) Tree density and species decline in the African Sahel attributable to climate. J Arid Environ 78:55–64. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2011.11.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Greene AM, Giannini A, Zebiak SE (2009) Drought return times in the Sahel: a question of attribution. Geophys Res Lett 36:L12701. doi:10.1029/2009GL038868 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Gregory PJ, Marshall B (2012) Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960. Glob Chang Biol 18:1372–1388. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02601.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Grossman DA (2003) Warming up to a not-so-radical idea: tort-based climate change litigation. J Environ Law 28:1–62Google Scholar
  40. Haynes K, Handmer J, McAneney J, Tibbits A, Coates L (2010) Australian bushfire fatalities 1900–2008: exploring trends in relation to the “Prepare, stay and defend or leave early” policy. Environ Sci Policy 13:185–194. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2010.03.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Hecky RE, Mugidde R, Ramlal PS, Talbot MR, Kling GW (2010) Multiple stressors cause rapid ecosystem change in Lake Victoria. Freshw Rev 55:19–42. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02374.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Braconnot P, Gillett NP, Luo Y, Marengo Orsini JA, Nicholls N, Penner JE, Stott PA (2007) Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 663–745Google Scholar
  43. Hegerl GC, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Casassa G, Hoerling M, Kovats S, Parmesan C, Pierce D, Stott P (2010) Good practice guidance paper on detection and attribution related to anthropogenic climate change. In: Stocker TF, Field CB, Qin D, Barros V, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Midgley P, Ebi K (eds) Meeting report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change expert meeting on detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit. University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, p 8Google Scholar
  44. Hockey PAR, Sirami C, Ridley AR, Midgley GF, Babike HA (2011) Interrogating recent range changes in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution. Divers Distrib 17:254–261. doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00741.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Hoyos LE, Cingolani AM, Zak MR, Vaieretti MV, Gorla DE, Cabido MR (2013) Deforestation and precipitation patterns in the arid Chaco forests of central Argentina. Appl Veg Sci 16:260–271. doi:10.1111/j.1654-109X.2012.01218.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Hulme M (2014) Attributing weather extremes to “climate change”: a review. Prog Phys Geogr 38:499–511. doi:10.1177/0309133314538644 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. IPCC (2014a) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 ppGoogle Scholar
  48. IPCC (2014b) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 688 ppGoogle Scholar
  49. IPCC (2014c) Annex II: Glossary [Agard J, Schipper ELF, Birkmann J, Campos M, Dubeux C, Nojiri Y, Olsson L, Osman-Elasha B, Pelling M, Prather MJ, Rivera-Ferre MG, Ruppel OC, Sallenger A, Smith KR, St Clair AL, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE (eds)]. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1757–1776Google Scholar
  50. James R, Otto F, Parker H, Boyd E, Cornforth R, Mitchell D, Allen M (2014) Characterizing loss and damage from climate change. Nat Clim Chang 4:938–939. doi:10.1038/nclimate2411 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Kolding J, Van Zwieten P, Mkumbo OC, Silsbe G, Hecky R (2008) Are the Lake Victoria fisheries threatened by exploitation or eutrophication? Towards an ecosystem based approach to management. In: Bianchi G, Skjodal HR (eds) Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. CAB International, Rome, pp 309–354CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Krupnik I, Ray GC (2007) Pacific walruses, indigenous hunters, and climate change: bridging scientific and indigenous knowledge. Deep Res Part II-Topical Stud Oceanogr 54:2946–2957. doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2007.08.011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Lebel T, Ali A (2009) Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990-2007). J Hydrol 375:52–64. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.030 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Lehman J, Mugidde R, Lehman D (1998) Lake Victoria plankton ecology: Mixing depth and climate-driven control of lake condition. In: Lehman JT (ed) Environmental Change and Response in East African Lakes. Monographiae Biologicae, vol 79. Springer, Netherlands, pp 99–116. doi:10.1007/978-94-017-1437-2_8
  55. Lobell DB, Bänziger M, Magorokosho C, Vivek B (2011a) Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nat Clim Chang 1:42–45. doi:10.1038/nclimate1043 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011b) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616. doi:10.1126/science.1204531 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Loiselle S, Cózar A, Adgo E, Ballatore T, Chavula G, Descy JP, Harper DM, Kansiime F, Kimirei I, Langenberg V, Ma R, Sarmento H, Odada E (2014) Decadal trends and common dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal characteristics of the African Great Lakes. PLoS ONE 9:e93656. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0093656 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Magrin GO, Travasso MI, Rodríguez GR (2005) Changes in climate and crop production during the 20th century in Argentina. Clim Change 72:229–249. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5374-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Magrin GO, Travasso MI, Baethgen WE, Grondona MO, Giménez A, Cunha G, Castaño JP, Rodriguez GR (2007) Past and future changes in climate and their impacts on annual crops yield in South East South America. IPCC TGICA Expert Meeting Integrating Analysis of Regional Climate Change and Response Options, Nadi, Fiji. Meet. Rep. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, Switzerland, pp 121–124Google Scholar
  60. Magrin GO, Marengo JA, Boulanger J-P, Buckeridge MS, Castellanos E, Poveda G, Scarano FR, Vicuña S (2014) Central and South America. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  61. Maranz S (2009) Tree mortality in the African Sahel indicates an anthropogenic ecosystem displaced by climate change. J Biogeogr 36:1181–1193. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.02081.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Marzeion B, Cogley JG, Richter K, Parkes D (2014) Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes. Science 345:919–921. doi:10.1126/science.1254702 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. McAneney J, Chen K, Pitman A (2009) 100-years of Australian bushfire property losses: is the risk significant and is it increasing? J Environ Manage 90:2819–2822. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.03.013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N, Koch E, Aasa A, Ahas R, Alm-Kübler K, Bissolli P, Braslavska O, Briede A, Chmielewksi FM, Crepinsek Z, Curnel Y, Dahl Å, Defila C, Donnelly A, Filella Y, Jatczak K, Mage F, Mestre A, Nordli Ø, Penuelas J, Pirinen P, Remisova V, Scheifinger H, Striz M, Susnik A, Van Vliet AJH, Wielgolaski FE, Zachs S, Zust A (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob Chang Biol 12:1969–1976. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Mills GA, Timbal B, Walsh K (2008) Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather in southeast Australia. CAWCR Tech Rep No7 86Google Scholar
  66. Ndebele-Murisa MR, Mashonjowa E, Hill T (2011) The implications of a changing climate on the Kapenta fish stocks of Lake Kariba. Trans R Soc South Africa 66:105–119. doi:10.1080/0035919X.2011.600352 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Niang I, Ruppel OC, Abdrabo MA, Essel A, Lennard C, Padgham J, Urquart P (2014) Africa. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1199–1265Google Scholar
  68. Nicholls N (2011) Comments on “influence of location, population, and climate on building damage and fatalities due to Australian Bushfire: 1925–2009”. Weather Clim Soc 3:61–62. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-10-05001.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Nicholls RJ, Woodroffe C, Burkett V (2009) Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change. In: Letcher TM (ed) Climate change: observed impacts on planet earth. Elsevier, Oxford, pp 409–424CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Nichols T, Berkes F, Jolly D, Snow NB (2004) Climate change and sea ice: local observations from the Canadian Western Arctic. Arctic 57:68–79. doi:10.14430/arctic484 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. O’Neill SJ, Handmer J (2012) Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation. Environ Res Lett 7:014018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014018 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Oliver TH, Morecroft MD (2014) Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 5:317–335. doi:10.1002/wcc.271 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42. doi:10.1038/nature01286 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Parmesan C, Duarte C, Poloczanska E, Richardson AJ, Singer MC (2011) Overstretching attribution. Nat Clim Chang 1:2–4. doi:10.1038/nclimate1056 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Parmesan C, Burrows MT, Duarte CM, Poloczanska ES, Richardson AJ, Schoeman DS, Singer MC (2013) Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research. Ecol Lett 16(Suppl 1):58–71. doi:10.1111/ele.12098 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Poloczanska ES, Brown CJ, Sydeman WJ, Kiessling W, Schoeman DS, Moore PJ, Brander K, Bruno JF, Buckley LB, Burrows MT, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Holding J, Kappel CV, O’Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Schwing F, Thompson SA, Richardson AJ (2013) Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nat Clim Chang 3:919–925. doi:10.1038/nclimate1958 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Powers LA, Johnson TC, Werne JP, Castañeda IS, Hopmans EC, Sinninghe Damsté JS, Schouten S (2011) Organic geochemical records of environmental variability in Lake Malawi during the last 700 years, Part I: the TEX86 temperature record. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 303:133–139. doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.09.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Reisinger A, Kitching RL, Chiew F, Hughes L, Newton PCD, Schuster SS, Tait A, Whetton P (2014) Australasia. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1371–1438Google Scholar
  79. Rivera JA, Penalba OC, Betolli ML (2013) Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of dry days in Argentina. Int J Climatol 33:834–842. doi:10.1002/joc.3472 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60. doi:10.1038/nature01333 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Root TL, MacMynowski DP, Mastrandrea MD, Schneider SH (2005) Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: joint attribution. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:7465–7469. doi:10.1073/pnas.0502286102 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Rosenzweig C, Neofotis P (2013) Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change impacts. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 4:121–150. doi:10.1002/wcc.209 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  83. Rosenzweig C, Casassa G, Karoly DJ, Imeson A, Liu C, Menzel A, Rawlins S, Root TL, Seguin B, Tryjanowski P (2007) Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 79–131Google Scholar
  84. Rosenzweig C, Karoly D, Vicarelli M, Neofotis P, Wu Q, Casassa G, Menzel A, Root TL, Estrella N, Seguin B, Tryjanowski P, Liu C, Rawlins S, Imeson A (2008) Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453:353–357. doi:10.1038/nature06937 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Ruelland D, Tribotte A, Puech C, Dieulin C (2011) Comparison of methods for LUCC monitoring over 50 years from aerial photographs and satellite images in a Sahelian catchment. Int J Remote Sens 32:1747–1777. doi:10.1080/01431161003623433 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Sitoki L, Gichuki J, Ezekiel C, Wanda F, Mkumbo OC, Marshall BE (2010) The environment of Lake Victoria (East Africa): current status and historical changes. Int Rev Hydrobiol 95:209–223. doi:10.1002/iroh.201011226 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. Stager JC, Hecky RE, Grzesik D, Cumming BF, Kling H (2009) Diatom evidence for the timing and causes of eutrophication in Lake Victoria, East Africa. Hydrobiologia 636:463–478. doi:10.1007/s10750-009-9974-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Stammer DA, Cazenave A, Ponte RM, Tamisiea ME (2013) Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes. Ann Rev Mar Sci 5:21–46. doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172406 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Stone DA, Allen MR, Stott PA, Pall P, Min S-K, Nozawa T, Yukimoto S (2009) The detection and attribution of human influence on climate. Annu Rev Env Resour 34:1–16. doi:10.1146/annurev.environ.040308.101032 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Stone D, Auffhammer M, Carey M, Hansen G, Huggel C, Cramer W, Lobell D, Molau U, Solow A, Tibig L, Yohe G (2013) The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems. Clim Change 121:381–395. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. Stott PA, Gillett NP, Hegerl GC, Karoly DJ, Stone DA, Zhang X, Zwiers F (2010) Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective. WIREs Clim Change 1:192–211. doi:10.1002/wcc.34 Google Scholar
  92. Stott PA, Allen M, Christidis N, Dole R, Hoerling M, Huntingford C, Pall P, Perlwitz J, Stone D (2013) Attribution of weather and climate-related extreme events. Climate science for serving society. Springer, Netherlands, pp 307–337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Tierney JE, Mayes MT, Meyer N, Johnson C, Swarzenski PW, Cohen AS, Russell JM (2010) Late-twentieth-century warming in Lake Tanganyika unprecedented since AD 500. Nat Geosci 3:422–425. doi:10.1038/NGEO865 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  94. Trewin B, Vermont H (2010) Changes in the frequency of record temperatures in Australia, 1957–2009. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 60:113–119Google Scholar
  95. Vargas WM, Naumann G, Minetti JL (2010) Dry spells in the River Plata Basin: an approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data. Theor Appl Climatol 104:159–173. doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0335-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Verburg P, Hecky RE (2009) The physics of the warming of Lake Tanganyika by climate change. Limnol Oceanogr 54:2418–2430. doi:10.4319/lo.2009.54.6_part_2.2418 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  97. Vincke C, Diédhiou I, Grouzis M (2010) Long term dynamics and structure of woody vegetation in the Ferlo (Senegal). J Arid Environ 74:268–276. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.08.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. Weatherhead E, Gearheard S, Barry RG (2010) Changes in weather persistence: insight from Inuit knowledge. Glob Environ Chang Policy Dimens 20:523–528. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. Wezel A, Lykke AM (2006) Woody vegetation change in Sahelian West Africa: evidence from local knowledge. Environ Dev Sustain 8:553–567. doi:10.1007/s10668-006-9055-2 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. Whittaker J, Haynes K, Handmer J, McLennan J (2013) Community safety during the 2009 Australian “Black Saturday” bushfires: an analysis of household preparedness and response. Int J Wildl Fire 22:841. doi:10.1071/WF12010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  101. Williams RJ, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, Enright NJ, Gill AM, Liedloff AC, Lucas C, Whelan RJ, Andersen AN, Bowman DJMS, Clarke PJ, Cook G, Hennessy KJ, York A (2009) Interactions between climate change, fire regimes and biodiversity in Australia—a preliminary assessment. Report to the Department of Climate Change and the Department of Environment, Heritage and Arts, Canberra, AustraliaGoogle Scholar
  102. Zak MR, Cabido M, Cáceres D, Díaz S (2008) What drives accelerated land cover change in central Argentina? Synergistic consequences of climatic, socioeconomic, and technological factors. Environ Manage 42:181–189. doi:10.1007/s00267-008-9101-y CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  103. Zwiers F, Hegerl G (2008) Climate change: attributing cause and effect. Nat Rep Clim Chang 453:296–297. doi:10.1038/453296a Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gerrit Hansen
    • 1
  • Dáithí Stone
    • 2
  • Maximilian Auffhammer
    • 3
    • 4
  • Christian Huggel
    • 5
  • Wolfgang Cramer
    • 6
  1. 1.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany
  2. 2.Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyUSA
  3. 3.University of CaliforniaBerkeleyUSA
  4. 4.National Bureau of Economic ResearchCambridgeUSA
  5. 5.University of ZürichZurichSwitzerland
  6. 6.Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRDAvignon UniversitéAix-En-ProvenceFrance

Personalised recommendations