Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 15, Issue 8, pp 1757–1772 | Cite as

Agricultural trade and tropical deforestation: interactions and related policy options

  • Christoph Schmitz
  • Ulrich Kreidenweis
  • Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • Alexander Popp
  • Michael Krause
  • Jan P. Dietrich
  • Christoph Müller
Original Article


The extensive clearing of tropical forests throughout past decades has been partly assigned to increased trade in agricultural goods. Since further trade liberalisation can be expected, remaining rainforests are likely to face additional threats with negative implications for climate mitigation and the local environment. We apply a spatially explicit economic land-use model coupled to a biophysical vegetation model to examine linkages and associated policies between trade and tropical deforestation in the future. Results indicate that further trade liberalisation leads to an expansion of deforestation in Amazonia due to comparative advantages of agriculture in South America. Globally, between 30 and 60 million ha (5–10 %) of tropical rainforests would be cleared additionally, leading to 20–40 Gt additional \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions by 2050. By applying different forest protection policies, those values could be reduced substantially. Most effective would be the inclusion of avoided deforestation into a global emissions trading scheme. Carbon prices corresponding to the concentration target of 550 ppm would prevent deforestation after 2020. Investing in agricultural productivity reduces pressure on tropical forests without the necessity of direct protection. In general, additional trade-induced demand from developed and emerging countries should be compensated by international efforts to protect natural resources in tropical regions.


Land-use change Trade liberalisation Tropical deforestation Forest protection Agricultural productivity growth 



We thank our colleagues in the land-use research group of PIK for many valuable discussions. We gratefully acknowledge financial support by the German BMBF projects “Hydrothermal carbonisation of biomass” and “GLUES Global Assessment of Land Use Dynamics on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecosystem Services” and the EU FP7 project “Visions of Land Use Transitions in Europe (VOLANTE)”. Finally, we thank Alison Schlums for proofreading. The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Christoph Schmitz
    • 1
  • Ulrich Kreidenweis
    • 2
  • Hermann Lotze-Campen
    • 1
    • 3
  • Alexander Popp
    • 2
  • Michael Krause
    • 4
  • Jan P. Dietrich
    • 2
  • Christoph Müller
    • 1
  1. 1.Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities (RD2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)PotsdamGermany
  2. 2.Sustainable Solutions (RD3)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)PotsdamGermany
  3. 3.Department of Agricultural EconomicsHumboldt-Universitt zu BerlinBerlinGermany
  4. 4.Österreichische Bundesforste (OeBf)Austrian Federal Forest Joint Stock CompanyPurkersdorfAustria

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