Advertisement

Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 14, Issue 4, pp 1505–1516 | Cite as

Lessons from the past in weather variability: sowing to ripening dynamics and yield penalties for northern agriculture from 1970 to 2012

  • Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio
  • Lauri Jauhiainen
Original Article

Abstract

There is evidence for overall spring advancement and phenology shift across the northern hemisphere, including northern Europe, where cereals are grown despite the very short growing season. This study focused on one of the principal risks associated with the short growing season, weather-induced variability in sowing time. The aim was to characterize variation in sowing time, quantify the impacts on crop growth and document associations with weather conditions and variability. We also assessed whether any systematic changes occurred as potential signs of autonomous adaptation to changed conditions. Shifts in spring cereal sowing time had no consistent impact on time of maturity as a result of variable weather conditions. All spring cereal cultivars required fewer days, although more cumulated degree-days, to mature after delays in sowing. In the 1990s and 2000s, sowing tended to start earlier than in the 1970s and 1980s. This was attributable to earlier onset of the growing season. Furthermore, more favorable harvest conditions facilitated harvest after maturity. As more land has been allocated to late-maturing wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) compared with early-maturing barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) during recent decades, autonomous adaptation to climate change has already begun in the northernmost agricultural region of Europe.

Keywords

Spring cereals Phenology Harvest Yield 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The work was financed by the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and MTT Agrifood Research Finland as a part of an on-going consortium project entitled Improving resilience to climate change and variation induced risks in agriculture (ILMAPUSKURI).

Supplementary material

10113_2014_594_MOESM1_ESM.docx (21 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 20 kb)
10113_2014_594_MOESM2_ESM.pptx (70 kb)
Supplementary material 2 (PPTX 69 kb)

References

  1. Cammarano D, Payero J, Basso B et al (2012) Adapting wheat sowing dates to projected climate change in the Australian subtropics: analysis of crop water use and yield. Crop Pasture Sci 63:974–986CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Elguindi N, Rauscher SA, Giorgi F (2013) Historical and future changes in maximum and minimum temperature records over Europe. Clim Chang 117:415–431CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Himanen SJ, Hakala K, Kahiluoto H (2013) Crop responses to climate and socioeconomic change in northern regions. Reg Environ Chang 13:17–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. IPCC SREX (2012) In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF et al (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of Working Group I and Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers, p 30Google Scholar
  5. Kaukoranta T, Hakala K (2008) Impact of spring warming on sowing times of cereal, potato and sugar beet in Finland. Agric Food Sci 17:165–176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Kaukoranta T, Tahvonen R, Ylämäki A (2010) Climatic potential and risks for apple growing by 2040. Agric Food Sci 19:144–159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Kirby EJM (1969) The effect of sowing date and plant density on barley. Ann Appl Biol 63:513–521CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Kirbyshire AL, Bigg GR (2010) Is the onset of the English summer advancing? Clim Chang 100:419–431CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Menzel A, Fabian P (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397:659CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Menzel A, Estrella N, Fabian P (2001) Spatial and temporal variability of the phonological seasons in Germany from 1951 to 1996. Glob Chang Biol 7:657–666CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N et al (2006) European phonological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob Chang Biol 12:1969–1976CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Parent B, Tardieu F (2012) Temperature responses of developmental processes have not been affected by breeding in different ecological areas of 17 crop species. New Phytol 194:760–774CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Parmesan C (2007) Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phonological response to global warming. Glob Chang Biol 13:1860–1872CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: working group II: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UKGoogle Scholar
  15. Pau S, Woklovich EM, Cook BI et al (2011) Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science. Glob Chang Biol 17:3633–3643CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Peltonen-Sainio P (2012) Crop Production in a Northern Climate, in: Meybeck et al. (eds), Proceedings of a Joint FAO/OECD Workshop, building resilience to climate change in the agriculture sector. http://www.fao.org/agriculture/crops/news-events-bulletins/detail/en/item/134976/. pp 183–216
  17. Peltonen-Sainio P (2013) Maatalous hyödyntää hanakasti suotuisat säät. Ilmastokatsaus syyskuu 2013. http://ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ilmastokatsaus-lehti. pp 4–5 (in Finnish)
  18. Peltonen-Sainio P, Niemi JK (2012) Protein crop production at the northern margin of farming: to boost, or not to boost. Agric Food Sci 21:370–383Google Scholar
  19. Peltonen-Sainio P, Rajala A (2014) Use of quality seed as a means to sustainably intensify northern European barley production. J Agric Sci 152:93–103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Venäläinen A (2009a) Comparing regional risks in producing turnip rape and oilseed rape—today in light of long-term datasets. Acta Agric Scand B Soil Plant Sci 59:118–128Google Scholar
  21. Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Hakala K, Ojanen H (2009b) Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland. Agric Food Sci 18:171–190CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Peltonen-Sainio P, Rajala A, Känkänen H, Hakala K (2009c) Improving farming systems in northern European conditions. In: Sadras Calderini (ed) Crop physiology: applications for genetic improvement and agronomy. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 71–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Peltonen-Sainio P, Hakala K, Jauhiainen L (2011a) Climate induced overwintering challenges for wheat and rye in northern agriculture. Acta Agric Scand B Soil Plant Sci 61:75–83Google Scholar
  24. Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Hakala K (2011b) Crop responses to temperature and precipitation according to long-term multi-location trials at high-latitude conditions. J Agric Sci 149:49–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Peltonen-Sainio P, Rajala A, Jauhiainen L (2011c) Hidden viability risks in the use of farm-saved small-grain seed. J Agric Sci 149:713–724CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Niemi JK et al (2013) Do farmers rapidly adapt to past growing conditions by sowing different proportions of early and late maturing cereals and cultivars? Agric Food Sci 22:331–341Google Scholar
  27. Reyer CPO, Leuzinger S, Rammig A et al (2013) A plant’s perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability. Glob Chang Biol 19:75–89CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Rounsevell MDA, Ewert F, Reginster I et al (2005) Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Agric Ecosyst Environ 107:117–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Ruosteenoja K, Tuomenvirta H, Jylhä K (2007) GCM-based regional temperature and precipitation change estimates for Europe under four SRES scenarios applying a super-ensemble pattern-scaling method. Clim Chang 81:193–208CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Saikkonen K, Taulavuori K, Hyvönen T et al (2012) Climate change-driven species’ range shifts filtered by photoperiodism. Nat Clim Chang 2:239–242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Schwartz MD, Ahas R, Aasa A (2006) Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Glob Chang Biol 12:343–351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Singh S, Gupta AK, Gupta SK, Kaur N (2010) Effect of sowing time on protein quality and starch pasting characteristics in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes grown under irrigated and rain-fed conditions. Food Chem 122:559–565CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Spink JH, Kirby EJM, Forst DL et al (2000) Agronomic implications of variation in wheat development due to variety, sowing time, site and season. Plant Var Seeds 13:91–105Google Scholar
  34. Tietäväinen H, Tuomenvirta H, Venäläinen A (2010) Annual and seasonal mean temperatures in Finland during the last 160 years based on gridded temperature data. Int J Climatol 30:2247–2256CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Tike (2012). The yearbook of farm statistics 2012. Information Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. http://www.maataloustilastot.fi/en/yearbook-farm-statistics-2012_en
  36. Trnka M, Olesen JE, Kersebaum KC et al (2011) Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 17:2298–2318CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. White JW, Kimball BA, Wall GW et al (2011) Responses of time of anthesis and maturity to sowing dates and infrared warming in spring wheat. Field Crop Res 124:213–222CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Ylhäisi J, Tietäväinen H, Peltonen-Sainio P et al (2010) Growing season precipitation in Finland under recent and projected climate. Nat Hazard Earth Syst 10:1563–1574CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Zheng B, Chenu K, Dreccer F, Chapman SC (2012) Breeding for the future: What are the potential impacts of future frost and heat events on sowing and flowering time requirements for Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) varieties? Glob Chang Biol 18:2899–2914CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.MTT Agrifood Research FinlandPlant Production ResearchJokioinenFinland

Personalised recommendations