Advertisement

Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 14, Issue 5, pp 1861–1871 | Cite as

Low-frequency variability of storms in the northern Black Sea and associated processes in the ocean–atmosphere system

  • A. PolonskyEmail author
  • V. Evstigneev
  • V. Naumova
  • E. Voskresenskaya
Original Article

Abstract

Monthly anomalies of stormy wind–wave heights and return periods are evaluated using secular routine observations in the coastal zone of the northern Black Sea. It is shown that wind–wave anomalies in this region are characterized by high-amplitude quasi-periodical variability with typical timescale of about 50 years. This timescale is determined by temporal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system and coincides with periodicity of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Atmospheric re-analysis data show that cyclonic activity over the Black Sea basin intensifies when North Atlantic is relatively cold and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are more frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region. This leads to generation of more frequent Black Sea storm events and enhanced recurrence of extreme waves and results in profound (and mostly negative) environmental consequences. When North Atlantic is relatively warm and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are less frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region, environmental conditions in the Black Sea region are calmer. Thus, statistics of dangerous events can be wrongly estimated even if relatively long-term (~30 years) time series are considered and interdecadal variability of wind–wave anomalies must be taken into account when the risk assessment is accomplished.

Keywords

Interdecadal variability of Black Sea stormy wind–waves Atlantic multidecadal oscillation Meridional forms of atmospheric circulation 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Guest Editor (Prof. P.Lionello), Dr. M. Evstigneev, and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments and suggestions. This work was supported by the fund for fundamental research for climate study from National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and state budget of Hydrometeorological Committee of Ukraine.

Supplementary material

10113_2013_546_MOESM1_ESM.doc (1018 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOC 1018 kb)

References

  1. Bacon S, Carter JT (1993) A connection between mean wave height and atmospheric pressure gradient in the North Atlantic. Int J Climatol 13:423–436CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Batyreva OV, Vilfand RM, Lukianova LE, Mertsalova NI, Nagreshnikova LV, Rudicheva NI (1993) Multiple similarity indices of surface pressure patterns. Meteorol Hydrol 11:5–15 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  3. Beamish RJ, Noakes DJ, McFarlane GA, Klyashtorin L, Ivanov VV, Kurashov V (1999) The regime concept and natural trends in the production of Pacific salmon. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 56:516–526CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Belskaya NN (1949) The Southern cyclones and conditions of their transition to the European territory of the USSR. Proc Cent Inst Weather Forecast 17(44):64–112 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  5. CEM (2006) Coastal Engineering Manual. Coastal Engineering Research Center, Dept. of Army Corps of Engineers, USA, Chapter I, Part 2Google Scholar
  6. Chernova VF (1959) Some findings about “diving” cyclones. Proc Cent Inst Weather Forecast 83:33–48 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  7. Coles S (2001) An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer-Verlag, p. 211Google Scholar
  8. Czaja A, Frankignoul C (1999) Influence of the North Atlantic SST on the atmospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett 26(19):2969–2972CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. D’Aleo J, Easterbrook D (2010) Multidecadal tendencies in ENSO and global temperatures related to multidecadal oscillations. Energy Environ 21(5):437–460CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Delworth TS, Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1996) Interdecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Climate 6(11):1993–2011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Devoy RJN (2008) Coastal vulnerability and the implications of sea-level rise for Ireland. J Coast Res 24(2):325–341CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Drevillon M, Cassou C, Terray L (2003) Model study of the North Atlantic region atmospheric response to autumn tropical Atlantic sea-surface-temperature anomalies. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129:2591–2611CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Egozcue JJ, Pawlowsky-Glahn V, Ortego MI (2005) Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain—Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution. Adv Geosci 2:25–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Elsner JB, Tsonis AA (1994) Low-frequency oscillation. Nature 372:507–508CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys Res Lett 28:2077–2080CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Esteban P, Martin-Vide J, Mases M (2006) Daily atmospheric circulation catalogue for Western Europe using multivariate techniques. Int J Climatol 26:1501–1515CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Evstigneev VP, Naumova VA, Evstigneev MP (2011) Study of statistical characteristics of wind-waves in the coastal zone of the Black Sea using the data of standard observations performed on maritime stations of the State Hydrometeorological service of Ukraine. Geoinformatika 3:75–82 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  18. Fereday DR, Knight JR, Scaife AA, Folland CK, Philipp A (2008) Cluster analysis of North Atlantic-European circulation types and links with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. J Climate 21:3687–3703CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Girs AA (1971) Long-term fluctuations of the atmospheric circulation and hydrometeorological forecasts. Hydrometeorological monographs. USSR, Moscow 280 pGoogle Scholar
  20. Gruza GV, Ran’kova E (1970) To the principles of automated classification of meteorological objects. Meteorol Hydrol 2:12–21 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  21. Guijarro JA, Jansa A, Campins J (2006) Time variability of cyclonic geostrophic circulation in the Mediterranean. Adv Geosci 7:45–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Gulev SK, Grigorieva V (2006) Variability of the winter wind waves and swell in the North Atlantic and North Pacific as revealed by the voluntary observing ship data. J Climate 19:5667–5685CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hawkes PJ, Gonzalez-Marco D, Sanchez-Arcilla A, Prinos P (2008) Best practice for the estimation of extremes: a review. J Hydraul Res 46(Extra Issue 2):324–332Google Scholar
  24. Holt T (1999) A classification of ambient climatic conditions during extreme surge events off Western Europe. Int J Climatol 19:725–744CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Hurrel JW, Deser C (2009) North Atlantic climate variability: the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Mar Sys 78:28–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Huth R (2001) Disaggregating climatic trends by classification of circulation patterns. Int J Climatol 21:135–153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Ilyin YP (2009) Observed long-term changes in the Black sea physical system and their possible environmental impacts. In: Climate forcing and its impacts in the Black Sea marine biota. CIESM Workshop monographs, Trabzon, pp 27–43Google Scholar
  28. Instructions for hydrometeorological stations (1984). Hydrometeorological publishing, USSR (in Russian)Google Scholar
  29. Jiang N, Hay JE, Fisher GW (2005) Synoptic weather types and morning rush hour nitrogen oxides concentrations during Auckland winters. Weather Climate 25:43–69Google Scholar
  30. Katz AL (1960) Seasonal variations of general atmospheric circulation and long-range weather forecasts. Hydrometeorological monographs, USSR. 270 p (in Russian)Google Scholar
  31. Knight J, Folland C, Scaife AA (2006) Climate impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett L17706 33:17. doi: 10.1029/2006GL026242 Google Scholar
  32. Kos’yan RD, Magoon OT (1993) Coastline of the Black Sea. ASCE, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  33. Krishnamoorthy K, Thomson J (2004) A more powerful test for comparing two Poisson means. J Stat Plan Inference 119:23–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Kushnir Y, Cardone VJ, Greenwood JG, Cane MA (1997) The recent increase in North Atlantic wave heights. J Climate 10:2107–2113CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Kuznetsov SYu, Saprykina Ya V, Kos’yan RD, Pushkarev OV (2006) Formation mechanism of extreme stormy waves in the Black Sea. Doklady Earth Sci 408(4):570–574 (in Russian)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Lepeshko VN (1989) About the southern cyclones forecast. Meteorol Hydrol 7:25–32 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  37. Logvinov KT, Barabash MB (1982) Climate and weather extreme events of the Crimea. Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 318 p (in Russian)Google Scholar
  38. Lopatoukhin LJ, Rozhkov VA, Ryabinin VE, Swail VR, Boukhanovsky AV, Degtyarev AB (2000) Estimation of extreme wind wave heights. WMO/TD-No.1041, p 73Google Scholar
  39. Luterbacher J, Gyalistras D, Schmitz C, Wanner H, Xoplaki E (1999) Reconstruction of monthly NAO and EU indices back to AD 1675. Geophys Res Lett 26(17):2745–2748CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Mailier PJ, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Hodges KI (2006) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones. Mon Weather Rev 134:2224–2240CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Mangini A, Spütl C, Verdes P (2005) Reconstruction of temperature in the Central Alps during the past 2000 years from a d18O stalagmite record. Earth Planet Sci Lett 235(3):741–751. doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2005.05.010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Marshal J, Kushnir Y, Battisti D, Chang P, Czaja A, Dickson R, Hurrel J, Mccartney M, Saravanan R, Visbeck M (2001) North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms. Int J Climatol 21:1863–1898CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. McCabe GJ, Clark MP, Serreze MC (2001) Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity. J Climate 14:2763–2768CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Msadek R, Frankignoul C, Li LZX (2011) Mechanisms of the atmospheric response to North Atlantic multidecadal variability. Clim Dyn 36:1255–1276. doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0958-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Naumova VA, Evstigneev MP, Evstigneev VP, Ljubarec EP (2010) Wind-wave conditions in the coastal zone of the Azov-Black sea region. Proc Ukr Res Hydrometeorol Inst 259:263–283 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  46. Özhan E, Abdalla S (2002) Wind and deep-water wave atlas of Turkish coasts. MEDCOAST, Turkish National Committee of Coastal Zone Management, AnkaraGoogle Scholar
  47. Ped’ DA, Popov AV (1980) About classification of monthly averaged 500 hPa patterns of geopotential height in the primary natural synoptic region. Proc Hydrometeorol Sci Res Cent 231:100–121 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  48. Polonskii AB (2008) Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its manifestations in the Atlantic-European Region. Phys Oceanogr 18(4):227–234 (original version of this paper was published in Marine Hydrophysical J, in Russian)Google Scholar
  49. Polonskii AB, Basharin DV, Voskresenskaya EN, Worley S (2004) North Atlantic oscillation: description, mechanisms and influence on the Eurasian climate. Phys Oceanogr 14(2):96–113 (original version of this paper was published in Marine Hydrophysical J, in Russian)Google Scholar
  50. Polonskii AB, Bardin MY, Voskresenskaya EN (2007) Statistical characteristics of cyclones and anticyclones over the Black Sea in the second half of the 20th century. Phys Oceanogr 17(6):348–359 (original version of this paper was published in Marine Hydrophysical J, in Russian)Google Scholar
  51. Polonsky AB, Fomin VV, Garmashov AV (2011) Characteristics of wind waves in the Black Sea. Proc Natl Acad Sci Ukr 8:108–112 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  52. Polonsky AB, Bardin MY, Voskresenskaya EN (2012a) Variability of extratropical cyclonic activity in the Northern Hemisphere associated with global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system. In: Cyclones: formation, triggers and control. Nova Science Publisher, USA, pp 161–196Google Scholar
  53. Polonsky AB, Voskresenskaya EN, Maslova VN (2012b) Variability of cyclonic activity in Black Sea-Mediterranean Region Associated with Pacific and Atlantic Processes. Proc Natl Acad Sci Ukr 3:123–131 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  54. Rogers JC (1997) North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic oscillation and climate variability of Northern Europe. J Climate 10:1635–1647CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Rusu E (2009) Wave energy assessments in the Black Sea. J Mar Sci Technol 14:359–372CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Rusu E, Rusu L, Guedes Soares C (2006) Prediction of extreme wave conditions in the Black Sea with numerical models. In: Proceedings of the 9th International workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting. Victoria, B.C., CanadaGoogle Scholar
  57. Saglam M, Sulukan E, Uyar TS (2010) Wave energy and technical potential of Turkey. J Nav Sci Eng 6(2):34–50Google Scholar
  58. Sanchez-Arcilla A, Aguar JG, Egozcue JJ, Ortego MI, Galiatsatou P, Prinos P (2008) Extremes from scarce data: The role of Bayesian and scaling techniques in reducing uncertainty. J Hydraul Res 46(Extra Issue 2):224–234Google Scholar
  59. Schlesinger ME, Ramankutty N (1994) An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature 367:161–164CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Sidorenkov NS, Orlov IA (2008) Atmospheric circulation epochs and climate changes. Russian Meteorol Hydrol 33(9):553–559 (original version of this paper was published in Meteorol Hydrol, in Russian)Google Scholar
  61. Simonov AI, Altman EN (eds) (1991) The Black Sea: Hydrometeorological conditions. In: Hydrometeorology and hydrochemistry of the USSR seas. Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, USSR, 430 p (in Russian)Google Scholar
  62. Sutton RT, Hodson DLR (2003) Influence of the ocean on North Atlantic Climate Variability 1871–1999. J Climate 16:3296–3313CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Technical summary (2008). In: Evaluation report about climate changes and consequences for the territory of Russian Federation. Russian Hydrometeorological Centre, 230 pGoogle Scholar
  64. Trigo IF, Bigg GR, Davies TD (2002) Climatology of cyclogenesis mechanisms in the Mediterranean. Mon Weather Rev 130:549–569CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Valchev N, Trifonova E (2009) Wave climate clustering to define threshold values with respect to the expected morphological response. J Coast Res 56(spec. issue):1666–1670Google Scholar
  66. Valchev N, Trifonova E, Andreeva N, Eftimova P (2009) Climatic change in the storm occurrence and intensity trends. In: Proceedings of the International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geo-Conference SGEM, Albena, Bulgaria, pp 305–312Google Scholar
  67. Van Gelder PHAJM, Mai CV (2008) Distribution functions of extreme sea waves and river discharges. J Hydraul Res 46(Extra Issue 2):280–291Google Scholar
  68. Voskresenskaya EN, Naumova VA, Evstigneev MP, Evstigneev VP (2009) Classification of synoptic processes of storms in the Azov-Black Sea region. Proc Ukr Res Hydrometeorol Inst 258:189–200 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  69. Weisse R, Gunther H (2006) Wave climate and long-term changes for the Southern North Sea obtained from a high-resolution hindcast 1958–2002. Ocean Dyn 57:161–172CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Wilks D (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd ed. Academic Press, p 648Google Scholar
  71. WMO (2001) Guide to Marine Meteorological Service (WMO-No.471), 3rd ed. Geneva, SwitzerlandGoogle Scholar
  72. Wyatt MG, Kravstov S, Tsonis AA (2011) Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s Climate Variability. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1071-8 Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Polonsky
    • 1
    Email author
  • V. Evstigneev
    • 2
  • V. Naumova
    • 2
  • E. Voskresenskaya
    • 1
  1. 1.Marine Hydrophysical InstituteSevastopolUkraine
  2. 2.Hydrometeorological ObservatorySevastopolUkraine

Personalised recommendations