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Seasonal changes in daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal from 1941 to 2007

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Abstract

This study aims mostly at understanding seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal. For this purpose, selected precipitation indices that mainly focus on extremes were calculated at the seasonal scale for daily data recorded in the period 1941–2007 at 57 meteorological stations scattered across the area. These indices were explored for trends at the local and regional levels. The results show that there are marked changes in precipitation indices at the seasonal scale. Trends in spring and autumn precipitation have opposite signals. In spring, statistically significant drying trends are found together with a reduction in extremes. In autumn, wetting trends are detected for all indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5 % level. In addition, the relationship between seasonal extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric large-scale modes of low-frequency variability is analysed by means of a seasonal correlation analysis. Four modes of low-frequency variability are explored. Results confirm that, over mainland Portugal, the North Atlantic Oscillation is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in any season and the mode of variability that has the greatest influence on precipitation extremes in the area, particularly in the winter and autumn.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Álvaro Silva and Sofia Cunha (Institute of Meteorology, Portugal) for their help in processing the maps in Figs. 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 12, 13, 14. Alexandre M. Ramos was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through grant FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012. Ricardo Trigo was supported by Project DISASTER—GIS database on hydro-geomorphologic disasters in Portugal: a tool for environmental management and emergency planning (PTDC/CS/GEO/103231/2008) also funded by FCT. Comments by two anonymous referees are acknowledged.

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Correspondence to M. Isabel P. de Lima.

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Espírito Santo, F., Ramos, A.M., de Lima, M.I.P. et al. Seasonal changes in daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal from 1941 to 2007. Reg Environ Change 14, 1765–1788 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0515-6

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