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Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 14, Supplement 1, pp 31–40 | Cite as

An ensemble of models for identifying climate change scenarios in the Gulf of Gabes, Tunisia

  • Lara Lamon
  • Jonathan Rizzi
  • Antonio Bonaduce
  • Clotilde Dubois
  • Paolo Lazzari
  • Leila Ghenim
  • Slim Gana
  • Samuel Somot
  • Laurent Li
  • Donata Melaku Canu
  • Cosimo Solidoro
  • Nadia Pinardi
  • Antonio Marcomini
Original Article

Abstract

Climate change is likely to increase the pressure on the environment and on human systems that are requiring new assessment tools aimed at supporting decision-makers and stakeholders towards a more sustainable and effective management of the coastal environment and its resources. This research appraises an ensemble of models that integrates complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic impacts on vulnerable Mediterranean coastal areas with application to the Gulf of Gabes, Tunisia. Starting from Global and Regional Circulation Models, the models’ ensemble includes simulations of marine and atmospheric dynamics and biogeochemical processes in coastal waters under expected anthropogenic forcings, with a spatial domain ranging from subnational to local. In the case study area, the simulations showed that atmospheric temperature increase is likely to be around 4 °C in the summer months of 2100, relative to 1961–1990. In order to obtain the most reliable estimate of sea-level rate variations, satellite altimetry data have been processed over a period of 15 years (1993–2007) showing that sea-level changes on the Tunisian shelf were of the order of 2 mm/year. This value was considered as a reference for the sea-level change scenarios. As far as the water quality is concerned, the areas most impacted by pollution are located near major towns and human infrastructures, such as harbours. The set of results obtained by the proposed models’ ensemble may be suitable for supporting a scientific dialogue with stakeholders and for the implementation of exposure scenarios supporting a regional risk assessment approach to the entire Gulf of Gabes area.

Keywords

Models’ ensemble Model simulations Gulf of Gabes A1B climate change scenario Present climate scenario 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The activities described in this paper were developed in the frame of the CANTICO project, funded under the CIRCLE-MED programme.

Supplementary material

10113_2013_430_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (6.5 mb)
Supplementary material Figures illustrating the differences in physical and chemical variables considered in this paper and a figure representing the precipitation values for comparison between the present and the A1B climate scenarios is reported in the electronic Supplementary Material (SM). This material is available free of charge via the Internet at http://link.springer.com/journal/ (PDF 6696 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Lara Lamon
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jonathan Rizzi
    • 1
    • 2
  • Antonio Bonaduce
    • 1
  • Clotilde Dubois
    • 3
  • Paolo Lazzari
    • 4
  • Leila Ghenim
    • 5
  • Slim Gana
    • 5
  • Samuel Somot
    • 3
  • Laurent Li
    • 6
  • Donata Melaku Canu
    • 4
  • Cosimo Solidoro
    • 4
  • Nadia Pinardi
    • 7
  • Antonio Marcomini
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti ClimaticiLecceItaly
  2. 2.Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and StatisticsUniversity Ca’ Foscari VeniceVeniceItaly
  3. 3.Météo-France/Centre National de RecherchesMétéorologiques (CNRM)ToulouseFrance
  4. 4.Ecology and Computational Hydrodynamics in Oceanography (ECHO)National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (OGS)Sgonico-ZgonikItaly
  5. 5.SAROST, SAROST Agency, Immeuble Saadi Tour EFEl Menzah IV, TunisTunisia
  6. 6.Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRSUPMCParisFrance
  7. 7.Department of Physics and AstronomyUniversity of BolognaBolognaItaly

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