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Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 11, Supplement 1, pp 167–178 | Cite as

Climate change, food stress, and security in Russia

  • Nikolai Dronin
  • Andrei KirilenkoEmail author
Original Article

Abstract

Farming in higher latitudes is generally believed to benefit from a warmer climate due to extended growing season, reduced risk of frost, availability of more productive cultivars, and an opening potential of farming in northern locations. We analyzed the impact of climate change on production of cereals in Russia and found that this general perception of beneficiary effect of a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to increasing risk of droughts in the most important agricultural areas of the country. Past impacts of droughts on food security throughout the twentieth century suggest that a number of adaptation options are available to mitigate the increasing risks of crop failure. We analyze the effectiveness of these measures in connection with a set of climate change projections, under two contrasting scenarios of interregional grain trade: “Fortress Market” and “Open Market.”

Keywords

Climate change Russia Agriculture Food security Droughts 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We are thankful to Dr. Fischer (IIASA) for providing the code of GAEZ. Dr. Alcamo, Dr. Endejan, and Dr. Golubev co-authored GAEZ simulations for Russia.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of GeographyMoscow State UniversityMoscowRussia
  2. 2.Department of Earth Systems Science and PolicyUniversity of North DakotaGrand ForksUSA

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