Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 9, Issue 2, pp 101–119 | Cite as

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

  • Rupert SeidlEmail author
  • Mart-Jan Schelhaas
  • Marcus Lindner
  • Manfred J. Lexer
Original Article


To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed good agreement at province level (R² between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria’s Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm³ a−1, period 1990–2004, to 4.46 Mm³ a−1, period 2095–2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetles.


Natural disturbances Climatic change Ips typographus Scaling Adaptation 



This work was partly funded by a scholarship grant of the European Forest Institute to R. Seidl. Additionally funds came from the EU project EFORWOOD (Contract no FP6-518128-2). We thank R. Petritsch for help with the mathematical annotation and two anonymous reviewers for helping to improve an earlier version of this manuscript.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Rupert Seidl
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Mart-Jan Schelhaas
    • 3
  • Marcus Lindner
    • 1
  • Manfred J. Lexer
    • 2
  1. 1.European Forest InstituteJoensuuFinland
  2. 2.Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
  3. 3.Alterra WageningenWageningenThe Netherlands

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